KU Jayhawks Q&A: NCAA case, surprise football player pick + a Lance Leipold analogy
It’s time for another Kansas Jayhawks Q&A. Let’s get to the questions.
For No. 1 ... we wrote about the latest official developments with the timeline last week, and I’d encourage you to read the entire thing, as NCAA VP of Hearing Operations Derrick Crawford covered a lot of ground in our conversation with him.
Crawford indicated that NCAA member schools, in general, want this IARP process sped up. We will definitely know more about where things stand when, as expected, there’s a timeline of previous events listed on the IARP website sometime next month.
My sense, though, is that this case’s resolution still is pretty far off. I think this is settled in 2022, with some likelihood that it takes place after the conclusion of KU’s 2021-22 men’s basketball season. Again, we’ll know more next month.
But this also gets at your No. 2: I think part of KU’s success in recruiting this offseason came from a general belief that this year’s team wouldn’t be affected by sanctions. Perhaps KU had an awareness of this by knowing where the case was at. Maybe it was an educated guess. Maybe it was the school working — however it could — to get the case’s resolution pushed until after this loaded roster makes it through the NCAA Tournament.
In any case, a lot of top talent that joined KU (Remy Martin, Cam Martin, Jalen Coleman-Lands, to name a few) are one-year guys. What happens in 2022 and beyond won’t affect them.
As far as some other recruits go, it seems like Bill Self and staff’s persistence paid off on some players (like M.J. Rice, who still technically could elect to play for Overtime Elite after high school), while on others, the KU brand plus local ties paid big dividends. Gradey Dick is a Kansas kid who had long thought highly of the Jayhawks. Someone like Joseph Yesufu, meanwhile, was completely enamored with the program and the opportunity it provided.
Obviously KU “bouncing back” with elite recruits can be seen as a great sign after the NCAA case affected things the past few years. But I also think it’s worth pointing out that the school has seemingly put a lot of focus on next season in particular.
This is a good question I see a lot from KU football fans. And I think it’s important to describe the reality of the situation, just so we can all understand coach Lance Leipold’s circumstances at the beginning of this season.
Let’s start with the Mark Mangino point. It’s true that he turned the program around without all five-star talent ... but also true he didn’t do that in his first season. KU went 2-10 then (in 2002), defeating Missouri State and Tulsa while allowing 48 points per game in Big 12 play.
So no, not even the most successful KU football coach this century had magic pixie dust that worked in Lawrence his first season.
The situation Leipold is facing, though, is even tougher than Mangino’s, simply based on the timing of his hire.
A Power Five team hiring an outside coach in May is basically unprecedented. I can’t find an example of it taking place anywhere else. Because of that, the catch-up process is way more complicated than it might appear to fans on the outside looking in.
I’ve used this example recently when describing KU football: Let’s say you’re a college student who works hard, has access to tutors and cares about getting good grades. Your friends in the same class are about the same level as you in that regard too.
This is what happens, though: Your friends are told about the final two weeks in advance. They study, re-read the textbook and make flashcards to quiz themselves. They do everything they can to get ready for that important moment.
Meanwhile, you’re told at 6 a.m. that your final in the class is at noon. You scramble to look over notes, but there’s only so much time to go over things.
The test results come back. Your friends all get A’s. You get an F.
See where I’m going with this?
The grades in the example are not an accurate reflection of the people that took the test. In other words ... it’s perfectly acceptable to be optimistic about Leipold and some of the immediate changes he’s made to the program while also acknowledging — in this season, at least — that circumstances have him in a position where he could be set up to fail.
Probably not, with the NCAA’s recent statement about Reggie Bush not getting his Heisman back giving some insight into how the organization likely views this.
“The rules that govern fair play are voted on, agreed to and expected to be upheld by all NCAA member schools,” the NCAA said in regard to Bush’s matter last month. “Previous penalties, including those that are several years old, will not be re-evaluated or reconsidered based on the recent changes to NIL rules.”
I can’t imagine KU’s case will be looked at differently.
It’s a reasonable question that probably doesn’t have a satisfying answer.
I’m not breaking any news here, but KU desperately needs to find a way to beat South Dakota in the opener on Sept. 3. That FCS game (against a Dakota school) hasn’t been a gimme for previous coaches, though; Turner Gill lost to North Dakota State in his debut, and David Beaty also fell to South Dakota State in his first game.
Lose to South Dakota ... and KU would be staring down the barrel of a second straight winless season. Maybe the game at Duke is winnable, but remember, KU has won just one Power Five road game (Boston College in 2019) since 2009. Hard to expect that to happen.
Meanwhile, this chart from Twitter user @KSU_Fan gives a good look at the gulf that’s currently between KU and what is considered the next-worst Big 12 team.
Obviously, most college football fans will gauge KU on results. I explained why that’s not exactly fair above, but we all know that will take place.
Having said all that ... one potential barometer for progress late in the season will be how competitive Big 12 games are. KU must crawl before it walks and must walk before it runs, and it’s worth pointing out that the Jayhawks lost their eight Big 12 games last season by an average score of 47-15; only one of those contests — a 16-13 loss to Texas Tech — was closer than 21 points.
Can KU turn previous laughers into competitive games in the fourth quarter? Or can it get an effective run game going to limit possessions, while also improving turnover margin to put some pressure on Big 12 foes late?
If the Jayhawks are only able to accomplish that, it still could be seen as a sign of progress.
I’d put Remy Martin as the heavy favorite.
At Arizona State, he averaged 19.1 points each of the last two campaigns — a mark that would’ve led KU in eight of the last 10 seasons.
Martin will likely be the preseason Big 12 player of the year, and one would think he didn’t transfer for KU to 1) play fewer minutes or 2) settle for a secondary offensive role.
The only other player I’d consider here is David McCormack, just based off his enormous usage rate numbers through three seasons (aka ... he ends a lot of KU’s offensive possessions with shot attempts). He’ll be limited some by playing time and occasional foul trouble, though, which should only make us more confident that Martin — barring injury — will be KU’s primary scorer.
Yep! Oct. 1, with colleague Gary Bedore providing all the details if you need them.
That was a quick answer, so let’s give BradLake5 one more.
Let’s try to be especially bold here.
I’ve written about both Devin Neal and Kyron Johnson, and they’d be great answers if we were only going for semi-bold picks; I bet most casual KU football fans have already heard of both.
So I’ll go with a baseball player: Trevor Kardell. The 6-foot-5 outfielder/two-sport athlete — he redshirted for the Jayhawks baseball team last season — has impressed during training camp, appearing toward the top of the tight end depth chart during practices.
KU is likely to rely heavily on multiple tight ends in 2021, meaning Kardell will be a name to watch not only in the opener, but also throughout the year.
