How KU Jayhawks’ new football coach will decide whether to go for it on fourth down

Kansas coach Lance Leipold is ready to explain his own fourth-down beliefs to you, but first, he wants to start with a story.

Back in 2018, he says he made an effort at Buffalo to rely more on analytics to guide his fourth-down decisions.

Or, at least, that was the original plan.

The exact circumstances are murky, but Leipold remembers this: In his first game with this new mindset, his team faced a fourth-and-short on its first possession of the game. The Buffalo Bulls were still on their own end of the field.

A fourth-down chart’s suggestion was relayed to Leipold via an assistant coach: The numbers said the Bulls should go for it.

Leipold smiles now when recalling the moment.

“I told the person that told me that,” he said, “to get lost.”

OK, so let’s start with this: Leipold will not be blindly following a spreadsheet for his fourth-down decisions at KU. He asserted Tuesday during a press conference with reporters that his choices there are “not 100% computer- and robotically generated.”

Stopping the analysis there, though, wouldn’t be telling the whole story either. Because while Leipold decided to punt in the example above ... he absolutely followed through on his pledge to be more open-minded to the numbers in 2018, admitting his aggressiveness has been “significantly different” during his last three seasons in Buffalo.

The data reflect that change.

In 2017, Buffalo had 12 fourth-down conversion attempts, a total that tied for 114th out of 130 FBS teams.

The next year? The Bulls went for it 32 times, which ranked top 10 nationally.

So consider Leipold’s belief on fourth-down decisions as a blend of the old school and new school. He has looked into the numbers and also has come to understand the immense value of converting on those fourth downs, especially with the staff’s focus on keeping possession offensively.

Yet, he still believes there’s nuance needed on Saturdays.

“There’s a lot of things that go with it: feel of the game, how we’re playing, how well we’re playing defensively, conditions outside, what happens on third down,” Leipold said. “A lot of those things.”

Which leads Leipold to another tangent: third downs. He says one benefit his teams have gained from this new mentality is improving third-down play calls when they already know they’re likely keeping the offense on the field for fourth down.

In those situations, third-and-6 might not be as daunting. Instead of getting six yards or bust, Buffalo could keep its full playbook open — and even run the ball — while knowing that getting to fourth-and-short would be a desirable option and not an automatic punt.

“That’s where you try to find advantages,” Leipold said.

Buffalo remained assertive the last two seasons. The Bulls tied for 33rd in fourth-down attempts in 2019 and would’ve trended for about the same ranking in 2020 had COVID-19 not limited them to seven games.

In short, fourth downs have remained an evolving contemplation for Leipold and his staff.

And also a much deeper process than what he joked about Tuesday when first asked how he made his go-for-it decisions.

“I was gonna say flip a coin,” Leipold said with a grin, “but I don’t know if everybody’s got my sense of humor down yet.”

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.