Chiefs-Eagles prediction: Here’s the one deciding factor for my 2025 Super Bowl pick
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
Here are the game details:
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: Fox (Channel 4 in Kansas City, Channel 24 in Wichita)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs by 1 1/2.
Chiefs-Eagles prediction
Things can change a lot in two years, but I can’t help but think this Chiefs-Eagles matchup is a lot like the one we saw in Super Bowl LVII.
In fact, in my prediction post then, I wrote these words almost two years ago to the day:
It’s all a build-up to say this: The roster players Nos. 2-53 on the Eagles are better collectively than their 2-53 counterparts on the Chiefs. It should be that way considering how the teams spend their salary-cap dollars.
The best player, though, isn’t on Philadelphia’s side. And in football, the relevance of that one guy can often be enough to make up for considerable shortcomings elsewhere.
Sound familiar?
The Chiefs are 1 1/2-point favorites this time — they were 1 1/2-point underdogs then — but a deeper analysis of both teams could easily lead to a similar conclusion.
There are reasons to like certain Eagles matchups, like their excellent secondary against the Chiefs receivers or tailback Saquon Barkley against a KC defense that struggled to stop the run in the AFC Championship against the Buffalo Bills.
Will it be enough, though, to make up for Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s magic powers with extra time to prepare?
Or, even more importantly, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ greatness when he gets to these do-or-die moments?
One concern for KC is something Star columnist Sam McDowell sharply pointed out earlier this week: The Eagles are not the team you want to fall behind against.
Remember, that’s been a pattern in all three of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl wins with Mahomes; he’s come back from a 10-point deficit each time while saving his absolute best play for the fourth quarter and overtime.
Philadelphia, however, is built this season to keep big leads. No one calls a higher percentage of runs than the Eagles do, and even better, Barkley combines efficiency with explosiveness in these settings; as Sam noted, Barkley averaged an NFL-best 7.2 yards per carry when getting it with a two-possession edge.
Mahomes has pulled Houdini acts before when KC has gotten behind in Super Bowls. The paths to doing that here, however, don’t seem available in the same way as previous seasons.
KC’s defense has plenty to worry about as well. The Chiefs have struggled to cover tight ends all year, and they haven’t faced anyone in the postseason like Dallas Goedert, who thrives after the catch. Remember also that Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both had big games in Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs, leading KC cornerback Trent McDuffie to say last week that he had “mixed emotions” after that 38-35 win because the defense didn’t play as it had hoped.
On the other side, it’s hard to pinpoint many weaknesses in the Eagles pass defense. Their secondary is outstanding, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s bend-don’t-break style worked just as intended while squashing opponents’ explosive play potential.
The Chiefs run offense hasn’t been the same since left guard Joe Thuney moved out to left tackle, and running back Isiah Pacheco hasn’t shown his typical burst after returning this season from a pair of injuries. Also, the last time the Chiefs played elite corners in the AFC Divisional Round against Houston, they only had one receiver (Xavier Worthy) catch a pass.
That puts a lot of pressure on the two men you’d expect: Reid and Mahomes.
History, though, has been on their side.
Remember two years ago when KC’s coaching staff pulled out a version of “Corn Dog” — twice — to expose the Eagles’ defense for easy touchdowns? One can’t underrate the potential schematic advantage KC might get from its sideline.
And then there’s Mahomes.
To borrow from Sam again, Mahomes has a 100.3 passer rating in the fourth quarter and beyond in Super Bowls. He’s frequently displayed an ability to raise his level in the clutch, and if this one remains close, it should do nothing but add to the confidence of a Chiefs team going for the NFL’s first three-peat.
The Vegas line seems right on for me in this one.
Look for the Chiefs to create some issues for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts with their creative blitzes, while also making one big play against him when he’s not expecting pressure.
Outside of that, though, this needs to be about the Chiefs outscoring a top-ranked defense at the highest of pressure moments.
And I think that’s what we’ll see.
I expect Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to unleash all the speed he saved up this season for a big play. I also think Mahomes will spread out his targets while looking for efficiency in the margins against an Eagles defense that will make it difficult.
In the end, though, I think this will remain close in the fourth quarter. And if the two teams get there, both sidelines are likely to be thinking the same thing:
What is Mahomes going to do next?
It’s a legacy game for the Chiefs quarterback, and given all we know entering Sunday, it’d be foolish to think he won’t capitalize if given the chance.
Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover.
Chiefs 29, Eagles 26
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 31 (Actual: Chiefs 32-29) ✔️
2024 season record vs. spread: 10-8-1
Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 35-24-1 (59%)
This story was originally published February 8, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
