Chiefs-Eagles NFL prediction: What needs to go right for KC to win Super Bowl LVII
The Details
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: FOX
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Eagles by 1 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The Super Bowl point spread has slightly moved the Eagles’ way since some early opening movement, and it’s not too difficult to see why.
Philadelphia, on paper, appears to hold many matchup advantages against KC. The Eagles have the league’s best defensive line. Their blocking on offense is superb, while receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith make up one of the top receiving tandems in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts also provides a challenging look for a Chiefs defense that hasn’t faced too many true dual-threat quarterbacks this season. The assignment requires discipline from defenders and likely forces the Chiefs — while the game is close, at least — into heavier defensive personnel that they haven’t used as much in recent weeks.
KC has to feel better in this Super Bowl about its offensive line than two years ago against Tampa Bay (the unit is at least healthy this time), but pass protection remains a concern. Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie largely have solidified the tackle positions after injuries were part of their shaky starts this year; to be frank, though, Philadelphia’s edge standouts Brandon Graham and Haason Reddick are plenty good enough to win even against solid competition.
It’s all a build-up to say this: The roster players Nos. 2-53 on the Eagles are better collectively than their 2-53 counterparts on the Chiefs. It should be that way considering how the teams spend their salary-cap dollars.
The best player, though, isn’t on Philadelphia’s side. And in football, the relevance of that one guy can often be enough to make up for considerable shortcomings elsewhere.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the Chiefs’ hope, as passing offense is the one unstoppable force in the NFL. It beats lousy defense. It beats good defense. When it’s on, we know, it has the power to beat all defenses.
And that’s what KC is hoping for Sunday.
Mahomes’ mobility is likely to remain limited by a right high-ankle sprain, though it’s worth noting he remained mostly his Superman self while throwing for 326 yards in KC’s 23-20 AFC Championship Game win.
The Chiefs also have some schematic opportunities against the Eagles’ aggressive secondary. Hall of fame quarterback Kurt Warner noted this week that Philadelphia has some issues against “over” routes and motion — two areas that happen to be KC specialties under coach Andy Reid.
Defensively, the Chiefs can take some comfort in having coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has earned the reputation of a skillful big-game schemer. Hurts also hasn’t been the same since suffering his right shoulder injury against the Chicago Bears in Week 15, with Pro Football Focus’ data providing some evidence. Before the setback, Hurts had earned an offensive grade of at least 68 for 11 straight games; following his return, however, he hasn’t been above 66 in any of his three weeks back.
The pick here, in the simplest terms, comes down to a bet for or against Mahomes. Can he overcome the pressure Philadelphia is likely to provide? Can he work around his somewhat-limited mobility? Can he avoid the big mistake? And can he lift the offense to enough points where the winner likely needs to be in the mid-to-upper-20s?
This should be a fun game. It’s likely to be close. The Eagles no doubt have a great team, worthy of the NFC title and their status as a slight favorite in Sunday’s big game.
They don’t have Mahomes, though. And in a sport where the quarterback means so much, I see that giving KC the slimmest of edges.
Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover.
Chiefs 26, Eagles 20
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, Bengals 21 (Actual: Chiefs 23-20) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 11-8
This story was originally published February 9, 2023 at 10:00 AM.
