Did the Kansas Jayhawks get lucky or unlucky with 2023 NCAA Tournament draw?
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Your guide to Selection Sunday
Follow The Star’s analysis and predictions as the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed and KU, K-State and Mizzou are seeded for March Madness.
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KU basketball landed as the West Regional’s No. 1 seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. UCLA is the No. 2 seed, Gonzaga the No. 3 and UConn the No. 4 in the West Region.
While KU will be the top seed, several others may have a crowd advantage at the event. That includes West Coast squads Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, as well as No. 2-seeded UCLA.
In fact, as the No. 1 seed in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, KU lost to No. 2 seed UCLA 68-55 in the West Regional final — with the second-seeded Bruins having plenty of fans in the building.
Here’s a look at the Jayhawks’ potential path to the 2023 Final Four and whether they received a lucky or unlucky draw in each round...
Round of 64
KU’s first-round opponent: No. 16 seed Howard
Lucky or unlucky draw? Slightly Lucky
Howard ranks 215th nationally in KenPom and is a middle-of-the-road 16 seed.
BartTorvik has the squad slightly higher than KenPom, with a ranking of 212. KU is ranked 9th by KenPom and 12th by BartTorvik, so there’s little risk of a 1-16 upset in the first round.
KU opens as a 23-point favorite, according to DraftKings.
Round of 32
KU’s potential Round of 32 opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): No. 8 seed Arkansas
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky
KU got the hardest eight seed out of any region, with KenPom ranking Arkansas at No. 20 and BartTorvik having the Razorbacks at No. 17. Arkansas has an elite defense, ranking No. 16 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Razorbacks have the profile of a team that has caused Kansas trouble throughout the season due to their height and length.
Like Arkansas, Illinois isn’t a favorable matchup for KU due to its balance on both sides of the ball. Whether it’s the Razorbacks or Fighting Illini, it’ll be a tough round two matchup for KU, though the Jayhawks will be the favorite.
Sweet 16
KU’s potential Sweet 16 opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): No. 4 seed UConn
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky
If there was a matchup KU didn’t want to get, it was UConn. KenPom has the Huskies at No. 4, while BarrTorvik has them at No. 5 — they are by far the hardest four-seed in the nation.
UConn had an impressive season heading into conference play but stumbled a bit. UConn is top 20 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The big-man duo of Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan could also cause major issues for an undersized KU team.
This matchup could be a complete toss-up. And No. 5-seeded St. Mary’s, ranked No. 11 on KenPom, could also have fans in the building if the Gaels advance.
Elite Eight
KU’s potential Elite Eight opponent (if Vegas favorite holds): No. 2 seed UCLA
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky
Not only will UCLA have the crowd advantage, but they are the hardest two seed. KenPom ranks them at No. 2, while BarrTorvik has them at No. 3 ... not of the two seeds, but nationally.
The Bruins hang their hat on defense, ranking first in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Still, their offense isn’t shabby, ranking 25th.
KU has also struggled to keep teams off the offensive glass and UCLA ranks No. 33 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.6%).
Elite Eight games are never a walk in the park, but if Kansas can beat UConn — a tough matchup — then the Jayhawks shouldn’t have too much of a harder time with UCLA. Gonzaga is another potential option in this round.
Overall
Boy, did Kansas get a tough bracket. For a team with 17 Quad 1 wins, the NCAA Committee certainly didn’t do the Jayhawks any favors.
KU has one easy game, followed by projected matchups against the hardest opponent for every single seed line by most analytics sites.
From Arkansas onward, this undersized Kansas team will be tested against teams that excel on the boards. So, KU will have its work cut out with the length and athleticism of Arkansas and UConn.
The biggest matchup problem for Kansas? Probably UConn. The Huskies have a blend of length, athleticism and shooting that can beat KU. In many ways, the Huskies are a mirror of Texas., which stomped Kansas twice in eight days leading up to Selection Sunday.
Bottom line: The Jayhawks might have the toughest road to the Final Four of the top seeds. But if they can get there, they’ll be as battle-tested as anyone.
This story was originally published March 12, 2023 at 6:57 PM.
