When will Missouri and Kansas election results start coming in Tuesday? What to know
The 2024 general election is already here, and voters are still at the polls around Kansas City.
With nearly 500 polling places open across the five-county metro area, voting has been a breeze for many residents. But as evening arrives, there’s one question on everyone’s minds: When will we get to know the results?
Here’s when voting numbers will start rolling in after polls closed at 7 p.m., and how The Star and our media partners will report them.
When will we know who won the presidential election?
The official results of the 2024 general election won’t be finalized until vote totals are certified in the coming days. But the election boards serving counties and cities around the country usually release preliminary results on election night.
Predictions about the final results of the U.S. presidential election will depend on how quickly preliminary vote tallies are released by each state — and even at the county level.
These preliminary results are what many media outlets base their predictions on. When you hear that a network has “called” a race, all they’ve done is make an informed prediction about who’s going to win based on the numbers currently available.
In 2020, it took several days before enough data was available to make a prediction. In 2016, the presidential race was called in the early hours of the morning the day after Election Day. And in 2012, many organizations were confident enough to make a prediction on the evening of Election Day itself.
Long lines at the polls, voting equipment malfunctions, recounts in extremely close precincts and other factors can all impact the timing of these predictions.
Who will declare the results of state and national races?
For state-level and national races, The Star will be relying on election data compiled by the Associated Press. These include the races for president, governor, senators, U.S. representatives and statewide ballot questions like Missouri’s abortion amendment.
The AP “calls” races only when the outcome is mathematically certain — meaning it may take longer to declare winners than other media outlets.
The AP’s method brings with it a high degree of certainty, making it one of the most reliable sources of election results available. The organization bases its calls only on preliminary vote totals, not on other factors like whether candidates have declared victory or what exit polls show.
You can find our continually updating results for Kansas here and Missouri here.
What about county and local races?
For county and local races, journalists at The Star will be monitoring the results released by our local election boards. Election officials cannot begin releasing results until the polls are closed at 7 p.m. This is to avoid influencing voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots.
Kansas City Election Board co-director Shawn Kieffer added that if voters are still waiting in line after 7 p.m, the election office will wait to start releasing results until the last vote has been cast. Depending on the length of lines at the polls, this could delay results by an unknown amount of time.
You can find our coverage of local issues at the following links:
Why do results appear to shift toward Democrats as the night goes on?
As polls close across the country, election boards have the daunting task of tallying millions of votes. As they do so, the geographic differences and voting habits of different groups can lead to a phenomenon called the “red mirage,” also known as the “blue shift.”
Here’s how it works: The first votes to get tallied are usually the ones cast on Election Day. Rural jurisdictions with smaller populations have fewer votes to count up, so the earliest results released generally come from these areas.
These votes tend to overrepresent Republicans, who are more likely to live in rural areas and vote in person on Election Day. This creates a “red mirage,” or the appearance of greater Republican success early in the evening.
However, as more votes come in, totals may shift in favor of Democratic issues and candidates. This so-called “blue shift” is caused by votes from more populous urban areas arriving later in the evening.
Progressive voters are also more likely to use mail-in and absentee ballots, which can take longer to count. Some states, including Kansas but not Missouri, accept mailed votes that arrive a few days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked on Election Day or before. In close races, these final votes can have a significant impact on results.
Do you have more questions about election results in Missouri or Kansas? Ask the Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 7:11 PM.
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