Mellinger Minutes: Mahomes’ timetable, Royals and Matheny, and the Border War returns
The rivalry that never should have stopped in the first place is back again, and as much as I’ve wanted this for the last seven years and figured it would take about this long for the right thing to happen, now that it’s here I feel ...
Underwhelmed?
Happy?
A little annoyed?
There’s a lot to unpack in the wake of Kansas and Missouri announcing they will resume the Border War in men’s basketball for six years starting in the 2020-21 season.
Underwhelmed: The only good point the Never Play ‘Ems ever had is that a non-conference game won’t have the same feel as when they played in the Big 12, and before that the Big 8, and before that the Big 7, and before that the Big 6, and before that the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, and before that, well, before that conferences weren’t really a thing*.
* IF I DIDN’T KNOW BETTER I’D WONDER IF CONFERENCE AFFILIATION HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, BUT LET’S JUST MOVE ON.
College basketball games in December are hard to get excited about. Notably, Missouri and Illinois do a good job with the Braggin’ Rights game in St. Louis. Kansas is a bigger rival than Illinois, so you’d think the hate won’t take long to come back, like riding a bike, but still.
College freshmen in December 2020 will have been 10 years old the last time KU and Mizzou played each other. Maybe they have parents who can teach them, or a (much) older sibling. But hating the rival will be a learned skill for some of them.
Happy: Sports are supposed to be fun, and for a lot of us there isn’t a more fun rivalry in college sports than Kansas and Missouri. At its best, the hatred involved was pure and unvarnished, spilling into real life in tangible ways that became something like the furniture in Kansas City.
How many rivalries end up — indirectly or otherwise — a determining factor on what part of a city people live in?
I’m genuinely happy that Bill Self, Cuonzo Martin and the administrations at both schools decided to do this. That the re-ignition of the rivalry will have roots in a spontaneous exhibition that raised more than $2 million for hurricane victims is even better.
A little annoyed: Some of those old emotions are coming back about the pettiness and hypocrisy that put the rivalry on hiatus. I’m particularly annoyed at any Kansas fan who spent the last seven years parroting the administration’s silly logic about not playing, and now — with no obvious reason that didn’t exist then — is walking it back.
I’m annoyed at any Mizzou fan who said “Big 12 sux we moved on” and any KU fan who said “we’re too good for that game” and will now buy tickets.
But those emotions are just for now.
They’ll pass.
In a lot of ways, the reasons I love sports are represented in that rivalry, from Corey Tate beating KU in double overtime in 1997 to two games in 2012 so good you don’t even need to describe them.
I drove from Indianapolis to Columbia the day before the Super Bowl for the first game, and watched the second game in amazement from our honeymoon in Kauai. I’ll never forget either.
Those emotions will come back. I think. Living in Kansas City helps. This is the epicenter of the rivalry, obviously, and even if it’s reluctantly the first game at Sprint Center will generate enough old hatred from both sides to make it feel like home again.
The rivalry never should have ended, and in time I’ll get over that.
The rivalry is back on now, and by the time the games start I’m sure each side will find the requisite hate in their hearts.
This week’s reading recommendation is Dan Devine on The Art of Sticking Around in the NBA, and the eating recommendation is the ahi sashimi at Bonefish Grill.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook, and as always thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
The length of Patrick Mahomes’ recovery will be determined by the length of his recovery.
Maybe that sounds simplistic, but that’s the way it is. As it should be.
There are a hundred reports out there, ranging from as little as two weeks to as many as six. Whatever it’s worth, I’ve been told that three to four is realistic.
But these are all guesses, and everyone I talk to has stressed the emphasis for caution. Any decision with Mahomes has to be about more than today or tomorrow or even the rest of 2019.
He is the Chiefs’ most important human, and needs to be treated as such.
I’ve come to think of three truths:
1. The Chiefs are 5-2 with road wins over two division opponents, neither of whom is closer than two wins behind.
2. They can beat anyone in any place at full strength.
3. If waiting an extra week to make sure Mahomes is fully recovered is the difference between keeping or blowing that lead in a rotten division then the Chiefs don’t have a Super Bowl team anyway, which has always been the point of this season.
Their next four games before the bye are the Packers at home, Vikings at home, at the Titans and against the Chargers in Mexico City.
The Chiefs will and should expect to win each of those games regardless of the quarterback but would be thrilled with three wins, and satisfied with two.
The Bills are 5-1 and the Ravens (against whom the Chiefs would own the tiebreaker) are 5-2. The Colts (4-2) and Texans (4-3) would own tiebreakers against the Chiefs.
If I’m right that the Chiefs at full strength can beat anyone, then the race for home-field advantage should not be considered critical.
That 5-2 record, two-win division cushion and positive diagnosis* are all advantages and give the Chiefs every reason to be cautious.
* This has been said but it’s worth emphasizing: medical experts say a key in the recovery is how quickly the kneecap is put back in place. That a big factor is swelling, which can determine recovery time. The Chiefs’ team of trainers (led by Rick Burkholder) put the kneecap in place less than 10 seconds after getting to him on the field. They’ve taken some hits over the recoveries of stars like Justin Houston and Eric Berry. If Mahomes is indeed out just a short time, the Chiefs’ medical team deserves praise.
I’m not just talking about Jake’s question here: It seems like I have a fundamental disagreement with many of you about the importance of playoff seeding.
If the Chiefs’ seed drops from what a lot of us originally thought because of injuries, and if the team is then at or near full strength for the postseason, I’m not sure what the problem is.
Of course you’d rather have the bye than not, both for the rest and to not let the Patriots have an extra week to game-plan you.
But I keep coming back to this: I’d rather have a fully healthy Mahomes with the Chiefs playing a wild-card game than him hobbling around in a heavy brace and the Chiefs owning a first-round bye.
There is a non-zero disadvantage to playing the Patriots in the division round compared to the AFC Championship. I do believe that.
But the point has always been getting past the Patriots, so it shouldn’t matter the round.
Although beating the Patriots in the division round and then losing to, like, the Bills in the AFC Championship Game would be very Chiefsy.
As long as you understand I believe the Packers will win, sure, let’s do it.
- This has the ingredients of a classic Screw You Game. Andy Reid can lift Matt Moore higher than many probably believe, the defense looked legitimately good Thursday night in Denver and those three extra days to prepare matter.
- Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense torched the Raiders, but they have generally been more good than great this year. That was only the second time this season the Packers scored more than 27. If the Chiefs’ defense really is getting better, this doesn’t have to be a shootout.
- Mahomes’ injury overshadowed everything in Denver, and deservedly so, but the Chiefs did a lot of good things in that game. You can discount the defense’s performance because of Joe Flacco, but the Chiefs only gave up one sack. Matt Moore was only sacked once, and Pro Football Focus credited the Broncos with just one quarterback hit.
Now, again: If I was a gambler (more on that later) I’d be hammering the Packers -3.5. I believe the Packers are (at least) the Chiefs’ equal even if both teams are 100 percent, and the Chiefs will be missing Mahomes, Chris Jones and Eric Fisher while the Packers might be getting Davante Adams back.
The Packers can be run against, but the Chiefs haven’t really been running the ball. If the Packers can figure out a way to pressure Moore, and if the defensive backs take advantage of Moore’s tendency to stare down receivers, it could be a runaway.
The tendency here is to stick with status quo and say cornerback. And that’s still probably the answer, even with the understanding that everybody needs corners.
But if we’re judging the Chiefs at full strength, the problem hasn’t been coverage. The problem has been pressure and tackling.
So, a vague list of needs:
1. Cornerbacks. They’re just so hard to find, and if you have good ones it changes how you can defend in front of them.
2. Linebackers. I truly believe this is the least important position in a modern NFL defense, for a few reasons, but unless Thursday night was truly the beginning of a change, the Chiefs still have issues there.
3. Offensive line depth. Another caveat, because everyone needs offensive line depth, but that’s been an obvious problem with Eric Fisher out.
4. Defensive line. Their depth there is diminished with injuries to Chris Jones, Xavier Williams and Breeland Speaks. The Chiefs still have the bodies to manage — Derrick Nnadi was terrific against the Broncos, and Frank Clark probably played his best game of the season — but the organization wants to build with strength up front.
The second part of your question is about addressing these needs, and the more I think about it the less likely it seems.
Some of that is the inherent difficulty in trades. You have to find the right partner with the right corresponding needs and the external motivation to do a specific deal. That’s a lot of moving parts.
But I also think the Chiefs don’t want to constantly be giving up next year’s first-round pick and kicking the can down the road on maintaining roster infrastructure.
If the right deal materializes I’d be shocked if the Chiefs didn’t go for it, but with Jalen Ramsey now unavailable it’s hard to see an obvious fit. Patrick Patterson is still that guy to me, but the Cardinals are 3-3-1 and (at least publicly) adamant about not trading him.
Injuries to Mahomes, his left tackle and his best two receivers can fill up the Madden Cover Jinx bucket, but if you’ll allow me some counterarguments I would present the following:
- Andrew Luck retired.
- Antonio Brown messed with what is now the AFC West’s second-best team, and the AFC’s best team.
- Ben Roethlisberger is out for the season.
- Melvin Gordon held out and Derwin James suffered a major injury.
- The AFC West stinks out loud.
- The Browns are kind of a mess.
Think about it this way. In a world without Mahomes (shudders), Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown, and someone like Baker Mayfield or Odell Beckham from the Browns, all could have been on the cover.
And wouldn’t that be a much better argument for the curse? Especially since each one of those stories is good for the Chiefs, and that what appeared initially to be a devastating injury is now something that couldn’t even convince Mahomes to ride the cart off the field?
Please, lets not be selfish here. Give credit where credit is do and allow me to present Joe Flacco Under Center:
Truly special snap there: veteran, Super Bowl winning quarterback refusing to notice or account for the blitz, double-clutching on what looked to be an available hot read and making up for all of that by not securing the ball.
So, that’s some of it.
But it’s more than that. Watch this play by Derrick Nnadi and Khalen Saunders:
Or this one by Reggie Ragland:
There are a dozen more we could post here, but you get the point.
Ragland played more than he has all season, an apparent nod by Steve Spagnuolo to the need for better run defense. Ragland struggled last year, often in position but missing tackles.
He appeared — and I want to stress appeared, because as always, I’m guessing on assignments — to be used differently than last year.
He blitzed more, even when the purpose seemed to be as more bulldozer or block-sucker than designated pass-rusher.
The Chiefs’ front seven in general appeared to be more active, including with stunts. Pro Football Focus charted 15 Kansas City blitzes, which matched a season high, and just three missed tackles — the previous low was six, and the Chiefs have missed as many as 14.
We’re all adults here, so we understand it’s not as simple as Blitz More, Tackle Better, but all these things work together.
It was a massively encouraging performance, particularly given the context.
But it’s fair to want to see more of it before buying in, particularly given the context.
Without knowing where you’re getting that, I know the front office is aware of the public sentiment.
I don’t think they would say it that dismissively, that it’s parents’ basement stuff, but it’s obvious they see Matheny differently than the general current narrative.
I think I’m going to write more on this later in the week, so I’ll try to keep this short.
The Royals’ front office is more aware of and sensitive to fan opinion than most. That group has always prioritized a larger purpose that has occasionally welcomed criticism and jokes.
But part of the purpose has been to sort of spread the message of baseball and promote the sport and team through the community. They’ve wanted to be active participants. The Urban Youth Academy is the most tangible example.
That doesn’t mean the team workshops decisions, though, and here it’s worth noting that the Royals have essentially lived with Matheny for a year.
If he’s the guy, neither side will go into this blind. Neither side will be able to honestly say they didn’t know what they were getting in six months.
There’s more I want to say, but it’ll turn into a column of its own, so please give me a few days.
I followed up with Max and he said he means “analytics mostly but really in any respect.”
So, lets start with analytics. There is no reason that analytics can’t work in Kansas City, and for whatever it’s worth the caricature of Dayton Moore as a knuckle-dragging mouth breather when it comes to any stats other than batting average and #PitcherWinz is wrong.
Reporting by The Athletic found the Royals ranked middle of the road in size of analytics staff in 2018 (tied with three others for 14th), and according to the Ringer the Royals ranked around 13th in number of full-time traditional scouts.
Even if you discount revenue — the Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers are among the teams with more traditional scouts, and the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros are among those with more analysts — the Royals aren’t ignoring either side of the information push.
Now, of course the Royals don’t emphasize analytics as much as the Astros or Rays.
Personally, I wish they would, and I think they could do more than what they’re doing right now. Among other things, I’m curious if John Sherman makes that a higher priority.
But I also respect how the Royals operate. More than the average team, they emphasize clubhouse cohesion and (for lack of a better term) what I’ve come to think of as baseball character: good teammates, focused workers, men for whom baseball is a true passion and not just a discovered talent.
That can sound hokey, and the same way the Royals are at least checking the box on investing in analytics there is no team that targets bad teammates, inconsistent workers or men for whom baseball is just a way to impress the ladies.
But you can’t prioritize everything, and the Royals are doing some (mostly behind-the-scenes) work to bring out and emphasize those qualities that I believe is more than most of their competitors.
Some of you are going to laugh at this, and there are a couple of old-school scouts with the Royals who scream at me every time I say it, but there are some Moneyball principles here.
When others prioritized defense and batting average, the A’s hoarded on-base percentage.
If everyone is now prioritizing analytics, those margins of advantage are getting smaller and harder to exploit, so maybe collecting players with personal traits that might help outperform projections is a way to win.
It worked the last time, when the Royals went all-in on bullpen arms, athleticism and contact rates.
I don’t know. Just a thought.
One more thing that comes to mind here: I believe the specific plan matters less than we often think, and the quality of the plan’s execution matters more than we’re willing to admit.
It’s sort of the the-wrong-pitch-thrown-with-confidence-is-better-than-the-right-pitch-thrown-without axiom, but if the Royals fill the clubhouse with talented baseball players who do the right things and care deeply about the sport they will create a tide that lifts all boats regardless of spin rates and launch angles and any other metric available to all 30 teams.
With the exception of a game or two during the Royals’ playoff runs, I haven’t missed a Chiefs game in 10 years.
But I am one of the worst people to ask this question because it’s been even longer since I’ve sat in the stands.
My guess is the closer you are to the field the lower the general BAC of the fan, but I’m going to open this up to the readers here other than to say you probably want to avoid night games if you’re looking to stay away from the sloppies.
But, other than that, guys, help TeeHod out.
This is in response to a tweet pointing out that Aaron Rodgers was just a 3.5-point favorite against Matt Moore.
That line is now up to 4.5, and if I’m reading this correctly, the Chiefs actually opened as a 4-point favorite ... which seems literally unbelievable. Maybe they don’t read the news in Vegas*?
I should point out that I am generally disinterested in gambling, and mediocre at best when I try. I have no patience, which is a bad combination with a tendency to overthink.
Also: Sports gambling feels like one of those things that if I started would not end until I was in meetings.
I don’t like meetings.
Every once in a while I’ll be tempted. Back in 2014, there was a prop bet for something like nine sacks for Justin Houston. The next year, the over-under on Royals wins was 83.
So, yes. I have been tempted.
And I’m a little tempted by the line this week.
But I do hate meetings.
I just want to make two points here.
First, as much as a loss can be impressive, that was a really impressive loss. Brent Dearmon’s influence on the offense is obvious, enough that if it keeps up, Les Koenning is going to have a major hurdle in his next interview.
I want to see how it plays once everyone has more tape, and how well Dearmon navigates the inevitable adjustment-to-adjustment phase, but that’s a hell of an impression.
Second, depending on your TV and how many HDMI inputs you have, there’s a really easy solution to ESPN+. You can buy a Fire Stick and toggle back and forth between a game on ESPN+ and one on network TV with the input button on your remote.
I bought one before the football season and have literally only used it for college football so far and it’s been a worthwhile purchase.
At the moment, I’d say my nerdiness comes out strongest in three areas: technology, cooking and family.
Technology: I mentioned this last week, but in the last few weeks I put in wireless controllers for our thermostat and sprinkler and I would rather not tell you how much joy this has given me.
My routine now includes checking how much moisture is in our soil* and how much and when we’re saving energy on the thermostat**.
* 75 percent in Zone 4 right now, if you’re curious.
** Shoutout to home/away assist for coming up big last week.
Cooking: This will be the eighth Christmas since we bought our house, and I’ve spent the entire time on a bit of a butcher tour, trying to find the best place to get the meat for this short rib recipe from a cookbook my mom gave me. I have a chili recipe I will defend to my last breath, feel strong about anything that comes off our grill, and have totally commandeered this stove-top popcorn method from a friend’s dad for family movie nights.
Family: This one is less tangible. We do peaks and pits every night before bedtime, play together as much as possible and hold tight to weird traditions like a cheesy movie night*.
* This was my mom’s. She was funny about it. The first Christmas after my parents got divorced she completely made up this night where we’d watch the Grinch — the Boris Karloff version — and gorge on stuff like wing dip. But she never really introduced it. She just started talking about it like we’d always done it. Mom was weird like that, but eventually it felt like we’d always done it.
But mostly, nerding on family stuff means always being available for baseball or books and basically being driven by the awful thing people with older kids keep saying about it all going by so fast.
I’m as guilty of forgetting about that at times as anyone, but I hope I’m getting better. I think I’m getting better.
Also: I’m now realizing that the kids are definitely going to want the new Grinch this year. I think mom would be fine with that, but I’m going to see if we can sneak the old one in, too.
One more thing: I’m realizing I haven’t really answered your question. It was about the nerdiest thing I enjoy, not the things I nerd out on the most.
So, guys, we’re all friends here? I love biographies and other books about history, and devour podcasts about crime and self-improvement.
Please continue to accept me the way I am.
The best part about 50s and sunny is you can rock jeans, a hoody AND an open sunroof.
What’s better than that?
When those days come around, usually you can get a bonfire in after dark, too, and do S’mores with the kids and then a bourbon by the heat after they’re down.
My Sunday was pretty sweet, too. Spent almost all of it outside, either playing soccer or tractors or climbing trees with the kids or doing a little yard work, and two things are remarkable about this:
I wore sweats and a long-sleeve the whole time, and I never broke a sweat.
Typically I start sweating if I just think about 90 degrees, so this is no small feat, and I just don’t understand anyone who is against this type of weather.
We can have a debate about whether 100 or 30 is better — 30, and it’s not even close, but still, we can debate — but if you don’t like it in the 50s I assume your soul is ash.
Well, as someone who went to college I can tell you that the best way to treat a hangover is to be proactive: drink as much water as you can that night, try to eat something before you sleep*, and take an Excedrin if you have one.
* Pizza is undefeated, but burritos and cheeseburgers are also clutch, or even just a bunch of chips in a pinch.
If you, um, forget about the preventative medicine you can still minimize the damage by following the steps the next morning. Again, drink as much water as you can, but also Gatorade* and even coffee.
* The company’s dirty secret is that it’s much better for hangovers than it is hydrating during or after a workout.
No two hangovers are exactly the same, and particularly if you had some slices the night before you might not be in the mood for food. But it does help, and here I recommend everything mentioned above ... but also don’t sleep the medicinal power of a french dip.
Please use this information for good, not evil. This concludes my TED talk.
This week I’m particularly grateful for not needing anything other than oil changes and new tires on our cars for a few years now. I despise car trouble — I know nothing about cars and assume I’m always getting ripped off — so it’s only fair to appreciate the smooth times.