Here are 5 pressing questions for the KU Jayhawks men’s basketball team in 2020-21
Kansas — once again — is expected to be among the top teams in men’s college basketball during the 2020-21 campaign.
With the opener against No. 1 Gonzaga only a couple weeks away, here is a look at five pressing questions that KU basketball faces ahead of the new season.
1. When will the big news break?
The elephant in the room can’t be ignored: At some point in the next few months, KU basketball and coach Bill Self will learn of their fate after facing five Level I allegations from the NCAA.
It’s difficult to overstate the ramifications of this event. KU could get a slap on the wrist ... or it could get a multiple-year postseason ban. Self could avoid a suspension altogether ... or he could face personal sanctions so severe they could bring into question his likelihood of staying with the program for the long run.
The timeline, from here, is murky at best. KU’s case will be decided by the NCAA’s new independent process, and while that’s the outcome the school preferred, it also sends the case on a path where few details will be made public until a final verdict is announced.
Naima Stevenson Starks, the NCAA’s VP of Hearing Operations, told The Star in July that it would be a “shot in the dark” to predict an approximate resolution date, as each case will have its own set of circumstances. A rough estimate, however, could have KU’s case completed by the end of this year or early in 2021, though COVID-19 could have an impact on the chronology as well.
If KU has sanctions, would it serve those this season? That seems unlikely — if the school has any say — as one would think Self would want to be fair to this year’s players, letting them finish what they’ve started before the program looks to deal with any punishments in future seasons.
2. Who will emerge as the team’s go-to scorer?
To be fair, Self doesn’t seem concerned much at this point with having the same primary scorers each game, saying he envisions this being a team where many guys could get eight to 12 points in a given game.
Still ... Self and his coaching staff have been masters in the past at playing to their best offensive players’ strengths, meaning it’s likely that at some point, they’ll have to make a call on whom they want to highlight during crucial possessions.
There seem to be three main candidates now: Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack.
Garrett’s obvious weakness is his outside jump shot, though if he’s able to improve that at all this season, it should allow him more opportunities for the right-hand driving layups he was so effective with as a junior.
Agbaji was happy to play a complementary role behind Dotson and Azubuike as a sophomore, but more will be expected of him this season. Much of his success also could be dictated by his three-point shooting; offseason videos show he has a quicker release, and one would think he’d have the potential to be a high-volume, high-accuracy three-point shooter, much like former Jayhawk Wayne Selden became in his junior year.
McCormack, meanwhile, has historically been a player who has never shied away from taking shots, even as a reserve for most of his first two seasons. Though he’s more comfortable away from the block — and at the free throw line, where he shot 81% last year — his success will likely be dictated by whether he can create angles near the basket to capitalize on the 2-3 easy baskets that Self’s starting big men have historically gotten each game.
3. Which of the wings will emerge?
Self can’t play everybody, which is why one of the most intriguing position battles will end up being at the wing position.
Second-year players Jalen Wilson, Tristan Enaruna and junior college transfer Tyon Grant-Foster were each highly regarded recruits, yet all are somewhat unknowns at this point.
Wilson has reshaped his body, reporting that he lost 13-14 pounds of fat following a freshman year when an ankle injury ended his season after Game 2. Wilson is considered a jack-of-all-trades type, possessing a 6-foot-8 frame that could allow him to guard bigger players defensively if needed.
Enaruna, also 6-8, showed excellent defensive stretches last year with an ability to guard multiple positions while also utilizing his 7-foot wingspan. He lacked muscle and was also raw offensively, though, which led to his playing time decreasing later in the year.
Grant-Foster, meanwhile, seems to have a wide range of outcomes. He was ranked the nation’s second-best juco player, and after signing with KU, Self gave him high praise for both his skill level and athleticism. An ankle injury slowed some of Grant-Foster’s early practice progress, however, and there could be a learning curve as he becomes more comfortable with KU’s offense.
Self should love the depth he has at this position, but it’s unlikely all three above will be able to carve out significant playing time. Their development will be a storyline to watch.
4. Can McCormack become a better rim-protector?
It’s obviously an advantage for KU to return the national defensive player of the year in Garrett. The reality, though, is that much like a quarterback is more important to a team’s success in football than a running back, a rim-protecting big man provides far greater value defensively in college basketball than a get-after-you perimeter player.
KU fans should understand this from past history. Last season, Udoka Azubuike’s presence in the lane helped KU limit opponents to the third-lowest two-point percentage nationally, while a majority of Self’s other dominant defenses have also been anchored by shot-blocking big men like Cole Aldrich and Jeff Withey.
This is an area where McCormack must improve. His block rate of 3.4% — that’s the percentage of opponents’ twos he swats while on the court — was less than a third of Azubuike’s mark last season (10.9%), and that resulted in KU seeing drastically worse defensive results when Azubuike hit the bench and McCormack went in.
KU projects to be a team with great perimeter length, which should help with the challenging of shots, but the defense won’t be complete unless it has an eraser on the back end. McCormack is KU’s best option to provide that ... while facing the possibility of lost playing time to Mitch Lightfoot if it’s an area he doesn’t improve in the upcoming season.
5. How good will Christian Braun become?
Judging by Self’s early comments, Braun is perhaps the Jayhawk most likely to break out in 2020-21.
“He’s been good,” Self said last week. “He’s shot it good. He’s aggressive. He’s really improved, guys.”
Just how much he’s developed offensively could go a long way toward understanding what type of team KU will become offensively.
Though Braun made an impressive 46% of his threes last year, he was overall a passive player; his usage rate — a stat that quantifies how big of a role a player has offensively — ranked lowest among KU’s rotation players.
Braun still appears to have one of the most valuable offensive weapons in basketball: the ability to hit threes, both stationary and moving. In a small sample last season, his points per possession were identical on spot-up shots when he used no dribbles and also when he did dribble (1.33 points per possession).
Self has always been quick to cater KU’s offense around its best pieces, and if Braun can continue to show an ability to be a 40-plus-percent three-point shooter, he could soon become a centerpiece for plays, much like Duncan Robinson is for the Miami Heat.
Yes, that might be a bit optimistic at this point, especially considering how passive Braun was his freshman season. Still, if the sophomore has improved as much as Self indicates, there could be a path to him becoming one of the Jayhawks’ top scorers ... perhaps in a short amount of time.
