Quick scout: Vegas doing an interesting thing with the KU-Oklahoma line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Kansas at Oklahoma, 8 p.m., Lloyd Noble Arena, Norman, Okla.
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 18-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 40
Point spread: KU by 1.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Interior defense: Interestingly, Oklahoma has posted elite defense at the rim (seventh nationally in field-goal percentage against there) while not getting many blocks (172nd nationally in block rate).
▪ Foul avoidance: Lon Kruger’s teams often have this strength, though this year’s Sooners are actually the best team he’s ever had (eighth nationally) when it comes to avoiding opponent free throws.
▪ Ball security: Oklahoma has been an above-average team overall and in Big 12 play when it comes to avoiding turnovers.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Shooting ... everywhere: In conference play, Oklahoma has ranked ninth in three-point percentage (while attempting the fewest of any league team), eighth in two-point percentage and sixth in free-throw accuracy.
▪ Creating havoc: This is a stylistic choice for Kruger, as his teams tend to play position defense while not gambling often for steals.
▪ Offensive rebounding: Kruger values transition defense over offensive rebounds, so it’s not surprising that the Sooners rank low (218th) in O-board percentage.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-4 guard Christian James (No. 0)
Plus: Ranks fifth in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year measure
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively
Plus: High-volume three-point shooter who shoots OK there
Plus: 76-percent free-throw shooter
Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often
Minus: Not a great finisher at the rim
Minus: Doesn’t get to the free-throw line as often as you’d expect
6-foot-9 forward Brady Manek (No. 35)
Plus: Career 37-percent three-point shooter
Plus: Has above-average accuracy at rim and in mid-range
Plus: Doesn’t give it away often
Plus: Solid defensive rebounder
Minus: Not much of a passer
Minus: Doesn’t draw many fouls
6-foot-4 guard Jamal Bieniemy (No. 24)
Plus: Scored 22 points in Oklahoma’s previous win over West Virginia
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Selective but accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Disruptive with high steal rate and solid pick-and-roll defense
Minus: Horrible finisher at the rim (12-for-37 this year)
Minus: Only a role player offensively
Prediction
This seems like a weighty pick.
Take Oklahoma in this one, and you’re predicting an end to The Streak, which predates Siri, iPhones and Twitter.
KU actually didn’t play poorly in its last road game but failed to cover mostly because of a hot-shooting afternoon by Oklahoma State. The oddsmakers are starting to adjust to not give any road penalty to KU, which enters a slight favorite at both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s sites as well.
As far as the matchup goes, it doesn’t appear to be awful for KU. Oklahoma hasn’t shot threes particularly well — that’s KU’s biggest weakness — and the Sooners’ defense also doesn’t force many turnovers, which has been a big issue for KU on the road.
Offensively, it still could be a struggle for KU. The most effective way to score against Oklahoma is by shooting threes, and while KU has attempted more lately, missing a few in a row appears to sometimes deter the Jayhawks from shooting another one. A poor-shooting start could be especially costly here, as the Jayhawks would likely revert to attacking the strongest parts of an Oklahoma defense that gets back in transition, forces misses at the rim and does not foul.
The Sooners are better than their 18-11 record indicates, as many of the team’s good qualities have been hidden while taking on a brutal Big 12 schedule.
The fact also remains that KU is 2-8 against the spread in road games this season. When Vegas isn’t tipping the line at all to account for that, my inclination here is to take the home team in what appears to be a coin-flip game.
Oklahoma 70, Kansas 67
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma
Hawk to Rock
For the second straight contest, I’ll go with Ochai Agbaji in this spot. He and teammate Quentin Grimes have been the best lately at putting up three-pointers without hesitation, and Agbaji should find himself open for more of those shots against Oklahoma’s protect-the-paint-first defense. Don’t be surprised if Agbaji battles for high-point honors on Tuesday night.
Last game prediction: Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 66 (Actual: KU 72-67)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 17-12
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 94-74-3
