The Devonté Graham effect? How KU — this month — has changed its offensive style
Is this the Devonté Graham effect? Bill Self isn’t convinced.
Before Kansas’ home game against Texas Tech on Feb. 2, the former guard FaceTimed the Jayhawks in the locker room to give them a pregame message: “We never passed up open shots. You guys pass them up all the time. Shoot it! I don’t care what Coach says. Shoot the ball.’”
Since then, a clear trend has emerged.
“Devonté can take credit for it,” Self said with a smile, “but he didn’t have anything to do with it.”
This much can’t be disputed: Since that game, KU has attempted more threes than it did previously.
The Jayhawks, for the season, have taken 36 percent of their shots from the perimeter. In each of its last seven games, however, the team has been above that number, which has marked a distinct change in offensive philosophy.
“I think teams are really trying to clog the lane and do some different things,” Self said. “In order for us to get a good look a lot of possessions, I think that (a three) is our best opportunity.”
It leads to an important question: Has this increase in threes actually helped KU’s offense?
The answer, at this point, appears to be yes.
Last week, we took a look at three-point volume as it related to KU’s defense. So far, opponents have had better success against the Jayhawks when they’re able to increase their number of three-pointers, a fact that remained especially relevant Saturday when Texas Tech won, 91-62, in Lubbock.
The same type of analysis can be done for KU’s offense. Here’s a look, from Bart Torvik’s college basketball site, at this year’s trend when it comes to three-point attempt percentage.
To make this as simple as possible: When KU has a higher three-point rate (in other words, when a higher percentage of its shots are three-point attempts), the Jayhawks offense (adjusted for opponent and location) has, in general, been better. Torvik’s database shows that KU ranks 60th nationally when it comes to the relationship between these two stats.
It’s important to note here the standard caveat about correlation not equaling causation. Just because KU’s three-point rate offense and adjusted offensive efficiency appear to impact each other, this does not mean one number is directly causing the other.
The graph still shows KU’s highest offensive ceiling has come when the three has been freed. The Jayhawks’ top offensive performances have come when they put up at least 40 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which includes home victories over Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.
Taking a step back, though, leads to another question: Has KU attempting more threes hurt the team’s accuracy? So far, that answer has been no.
| % of shots that were 3s | 3 pt.% | |
| Before Feb. 2 (Texas Tech at home) | 33% | 36% |
| Last seven games | 44% | 37% |
Though KU has drastically increased its number of threes attempted, it’s actually made a higher percentage than it was before. Though we might expect looser shot selection from the outside would result in tougher tries and reduced success, that hasn’t been the case, suggesting the Jayhawks don’t have reason to worry yet that they’ve pushed their three-point limits too far.
This is important for a few reasons. Though there are parts of basketball that are difficult to forecast game to game (three-point shooting being No. 1 on the list, according to a 2015 study by Ken Pomeroy), the actual act of putting up three-point shots is something very much in control of the offense. In fact, according to that Pomeroy article, three-point rate “is the most predictable thing in a basketball game. The number of three-pointers each team will take is about as predictable as the pace each team will play at.”
When it comes to KU, this has to be considered encouraging. Attempting more threes has not only helped the offense, but that sort of manipulation is something that can be done mostly on KU’s terms.
There’s also this: KU is not an elite team offensively in other areas like turnovers, rebounding or getting to the free-throw line. Perhaps if this team thrived at getting fouled, increasing three-point attempts might not make much sense. As it stands, attempting early threes doesn’t seem like it will be detrimental to other aspects of KU’s offense that have performed well.
Overall, KU’s offense has benefited from the adjustment. According to Torvik’s numbers, KU was 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency before Feb. 2 and has been 15th in the seven games since.
“If the shot’s there you take it,” KU guard Devon Dotson said, “because it could lead to pretty good things.”
Teammate Marcus Garrett, when asked, gave his own theory as to why KU had shot more often from the perimeter lately.
“Devonté had sent a message and told us to shoot the ball more,” Garrett said with a grin. “Ever since then, I feel like we’ve just been shooting the ball a lot more.”
Maybe this uptick is the Devonté Graham effect. Maybe it’s not.
One thing remains certain, though, when it comes to this KU basketball team:
The offense has changed for the better since a shift in early February.
This story was originally published February 28, 2019 at 5:30 PM.
