Quick scout: Why Texas has the look of an underrated team
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 11 Kansas at Texas, 6 p.m., Erwin Center, Austin, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 11-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 34
Point spread: Kansas by 1.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition. All stats are as of Monday afternoon.
3 Strengths
▪ Rim protection: Texas leads the conference in two-point defense and also is second in block rate during league games.
▪ Ball security: The Longhorns rank 52nd nationally in offensive turnover percentage, meaning they get a shot most possessions.
▪ Transition defense: Texas ranks 33rd in limiting opponents’ fast-break opportunities and also 37th in adjusted shooting percentage defense in those situations.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Creating contact: Texas is last in the Big 12 in offensive free throw rate while playing a non-physical offensive style.
▪ Three-point defense: The Longhorns are only about average when it comes to limiting opponents’ perimeter attempts.
▪ Jump shooting: According to Synergy’s logs, Texas ranks 29th percentile on half-court jumpshots from 17 feet and closer, eighth percentile on shots between 17 feet and the three-point line and 15th percentile on three-point attempts.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-4 guard Kerwin Roach (No. 12)
Plus: Texas’ go-to guy offensively
Plus: Gets to rim well and is good finisher inside for his size
Plus: Solid passer
Plus: Does not hesitate to fire from three and is slightly above-average shooter there
Minus: Does not get to free throw line often
Minus: Sometimes settles for mid-range shots, where he’s not as efficient
6-foot-11 forward Jaxson Hayes (No. 10)
Plus: Elite finisher at the rim
Plus: Ranks seventh nationally in two-point percentage
Plus: One of nation’s best shot-blockers
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “excellent” overall defender
Minus: Role player offensively
Minus: Whistle prone; has fouled out three of last four games
6-foot-5 guard Jase Febres (No. 13)
Plus: Sharp-shooter whose playing time has increased in Big 12 play
Plus: Went 4-for-11 from three in previous game against Kansas
Plus: Almost never turns it over
Minus: Non-factor inside the arc offensively
Minus: Synergy rates him as “below average” defender who struggles to defend the perimeter
Prediction
Texas has the look of a classic underrated team.
The Longhorns might have entered this week tied for seventh in the Big 12 standings, but there shouldn’t be as much shame in that this season considering the league’s top-heavy nature. The reality is, Texas is somewhere around the 35th-best team in the nation, a fact that’s harder to realize given the team’s 11-9 record against a difficult schedule.
Coach Shaka Smart did an excellent job preparing his team to go against KU’s defense in the teams’ first meeting, an 80-78 Jayhawks victory. The Longhorns scored 1.24 points per possession — the top mark against the Jayhawks this season — while playing to open three-point shots that KU’s defensive style allowed them to shoot.
It didn’t result in a win, though, because KU was so efficient on the other end. The Jayhawks had just four turnovers, shot well from three and received a huge boost from Marcus Garrett, who emerged as a driving threat with 20 points.
Smart shouldn’t be surprised by Garrett this time, and because Texas has a shot-blocker in Hayes, it’s likely the team might try to copy Kentucky’s defensive formula from Saturday. That would involve sagging off Garrett on the perimeter while leaving an extra defender inside to clog the middle.
Garrett made 3 of 4 threes against Texas, so maybe he can bounce back to open things up for his team offensively. KU could certainly use that both this game and moving forward.
This still feels like a contest where the Jayhawks will have a few more turnovers and shoot a little worse. There’s no guarantee Texas’ shots will go in — the team isn’t great in that regard — but if the Longhorns are able to get the same three-point volume they had in the first game (34 threes on 69 field-goal attempts), I like their chances at efficient-enough offense for a minor upset.
Texas 68, Kansas 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas
Hawk to Rock
Lagerald Vick had 21 points in the first game against Texas, and for the second straight outing, he appears to have the best matchup against KU’s opponent. The Longhorns aren’t always great at getting out to shooters, so Vick and teammates need to do a better job of ensuring he gets spot-up looks.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, Kentucky 72 (Actual: Kentucky 71-63)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 10-10
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 87-72-3
