Quick scout: Here's how KU matches up with Clemson

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Friday's game: No. 1 seed Kansas vs. No. 5 seed Clemson, 6:07 p.m., CenturyLink Center, Omaha, Neb.

TV: CBS

Opponent’s record: 25-9

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14

Point spread: KU by 5.

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪Rim protection: Clemson's greatest strength is interior defense, as it ranks seventh nationally in two-point percentage defense and 23rd in block rate.

▪Transition defense: The Tigers limit opponent fast-break opportunities (49th) and also hold down shooting percentages in those situations (24th).

▪Three-point shooting: Clemson has made 37 percent of its threes while attempting more of those shots than an average NCAA team.

3 Weaknesses

▪Defensive pressure: Like Seton Hall, Clemson does not try to dictate defensively. The Tigers rank 244th in defensive turnover percentage and 204th in steal rate, so if the Jayhawks have a high turnover number, it'll likely be because of self-inflicted errors.

▪Offensive rebounding: Clemson, with a four-guard lineup and a focus on getting back defensively, is not great on the offensive glass, ranking 235th in O-board percentage. This should be a bit of relief for KU, which allowed Seton Hall to grab 15 of its 38 missed shots in last week's round of 32 game.

▪Three-point defense: The Tigers are right at NCAA average when it comes to limiting opponents' three-point attempts.

3 Players to Watch

6-foot-3 guard Marcquise Reed (No. 2)

Plus: Go-to guy offensively

Plus: Excellent free-throw shooter who gets to line at average clip

Plus: High-volume three-point shooter who makes 35 percent

Plus: Team's best at creating steals

Minus: Synergy's logs list him as "average" defender who especially struggles in isolations

Minus: Not a great finisher at the rim

6-foot-9 forward Elijah Thomas (No. 14)

Plus: One of nation's best shot-blockers

Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends

Plus: Does great job of drawing fouls

Plus: Gets high volume of shots at rim and is good shooter there

Minus: Turnover prone

Minus: Only a 62-percent free-throw shooter

Minus: Often has issues with foul trouble

6-foot-3 guard Gabe DeVoe (No. 10)

Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter

Plus: Can get to the rim and is well-above-average finisher there

Plus: Strong free-throw shooter

Minus: Doesn't get to the line often

Minus: Synergy's logs show he struggles defensively to get out to perimeter shooters

Prediction

If we start with the broad view, this seems like a fairly even matchup.

For example, KU ranks fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th in defense; Clemson is basically reversed at 43rd in offense and seventh in defense. The Jayhawks are ranked ninth in KenPom, while the Tigers are 14th.

So why the five-point Vegas spread?

A few theories. For one, many of the advanced metrics are disagreeing on how good KU is. KenPom is the low one at nine, while Sagarin has KU all the way up at four. That gap could potentially change your thoughts on this game by a few points.

The setting is another wild card. The Jayhawks received excellent fan support in Wichita last week, but the Omaha crowds in the past have typically not been up to that same level. This still should benefit KU, but maybe not as much as last week's environment did.

There's also this: KU, in general, seems to match up favorably against Clemson.

The one big negative for the Jayhawks will be playing against an elite transition defense. Though fast-break points are a KU strength, that facet is likely to be cut off Friday.

Still, the Jayhawks shouldn't have to worry about getting manhandled on the defensive glass, and they aren't likely to be pressured offensively, which has caused previous issues. They also should be able to get open threes with good ball movement, meaning the Jayhawks should be able to play to their standout skill.

None of this guarantees a victory. Clemson should be able to get up its own three-point shots as well, making both teams' defenses susceptible to the shooting luck of a 40-minute sample.

KU, though, has shot at least 40 percent from three in seven of its last nine games (the others were 39 percent against K-State and 35 percent at Oklahoma State). Its recent outside shooting hasn't slumped.

That could change Friday, but there's no reason to predict it. If the Jayhawks get to that magic 40-percent number again, I see them comfortably advancing to the Elite Eight.

Kansas 76, Clemson 67

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas

Hawk to Rock

Synergy shows Clemson to be a strong pick-and-roll defense but one that struggles against spot-up attempts. Svi Mykhailiuk only needs two threes to set a new KU single-season record, but this looks like a game in which he's likely to make more than that.

Last game prediction: Kansas 85, Seton Hall 75 (Actual: KU 83-79)

2017-18 record vs. spread: 17-18

Last four seasons’ record vs. spread: 75-61-3

This story was originally published March 23, 2018 at 9:28 AM with the headline "Quick scout: Here's how KU matches up with Clemson."