Enticing as NFL schedule release is, KC Chiefs’ fate will be determined by own makeup

In the weeks after the first 17-game NFL schedule was released last season, Chiefs’ phenomenon Patrick Mahomes made an audacious declaration: the goal of becoming the first to go 20-0.

His point wasn’t to be arrogant but to infuse renewed urgency and energy into the operation after the Chiefs had been clobbered 31-9 by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

So why not add some lofty aims for a franchise that had hosted three straight AFC Championship Games and won its first Super Bowl in 50 years before returning for the Tampa Bay debacle that might have been reasonably dismissed as a blip?

Moreover, the Chiefs had been making a chew toy of the AFC West, winning five straight division titles entering last season, and you could just about count on another undefeated September with a quarterback who’d been 10-0 in that month.

But the notion quickly proved grandiose, with the Chiefs losing two of their first three and three of their first five. They recovered nimbly to win a sixth consecutive division title and yet again host an AFC Championship Game but finished the season with a confounding second-half collapse against Cincinnati.

So any aura of invincibility the Chiefs enjoyed a year ago, self-proclaimed or in the minds of the competition, has evaporated.

Beyond that, after shedding marquee presences such as receiver Tyreek Hill and safety Tyrann Mathieu and suddenly dependent on key contributions from numerous newcomers, it’s easy to see them as standing at a crossroads after making such pivots.

Especially considering how the AFC West has bulked up this offseason, the Chiefs may well be challenged simply to make the postseason.

All the more so considering the way their schedule looks after it took tangible form on Thursday night with an NFL-first eight straight games against teams with winning records last season for openers. In the early phase of what certainly is one of the most daunting schedules in the NFL this season, five of the first seven foes made the playoffs last season.

Three of the first four are on the road, book-ended by the Sept. 11 opener at Arizona (and coach Kliff Kingsbury, Mahomes’ coach at Texas Tech) and an Oct. 2 visit to Tampa Bay with Tom Brady. Then it’s the Raiders and Bills back-to-back at Arrowhead Stadium, setting up four out of five at home sandwiched around a Super Bowl LIV rematch at San Francisco.

Also conspicuous in the schedule: The Super Bowl champ Los Angeles Rams visit on Nov. 27 followed by three straight December road games beginning a week later with a trip to Cincinnati ... the team the Rams beat in the Super Bowl and a new Chiefs’ nemesis after beating them twice in January.

But here’s the thing about it all: Thanks largely to the salary cap, NFL rosters are ever-churning and dynamic by design. And injuries are an ever-present factor. Not to mention odd bounces and other quirky plays.

(See: Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first career fumble sabotaging the Chiefs’ final drive in a loss at Baltimore … and Mahomes’ rare miscommunication with Travis Kelce leading to a decisive interception a week later … Etc.)

Meaning it’s hard to know what teams are going to stay about the same and which are going to surge and which will sag. Case in point: Seven teams made the playoffs last season that didn’t the year before.

That’s why every NFL season is an enticing adventure. It’s also why the fate of the Chiefs isn’t so much about their schedule as their makeup.

That DNA is about much more than just Mahomes, even if he is the embodiment of it and principle catalyst for all that it might produce.

It’s about a foundation and culture cultivated by Andy Reid, the fifth-winning coach in NFL history. It’s about the relentless creativity of general manager Brett Veach and his staff, who have brilliantly engineered two previous extreme makeovers (the defense after the 2018 season; the offensive line after the 2020 season).

And it’s about the chemistry among Reid, Mahomes and Veach that makes for rare synergy in the broader mission.

None of that is foolproof, of course:

Bungling away a 21-3 lead over the Bengals in the 27-24 AFC Championship Game overtime loss was a grim reminder of tortured postseason losses that were supposed to have been exorcised with the arrival of Mahomes. For that reason, one could make a fine case that this was the most excruciating of a haunting list.

The salient question now, though, is whether that represented the end of an era or the start of a reboot.

Fortified by a draft that earned virtually consensus A grades around the nation, the belief here is the latter.

The sense here also is that the Chiefs were in need of some changes on both sides of the ball, including in a passing game that had in some ways stagnated and been too easily squelched too often.

While they’ll be hard-pressed to be as explosive without Hill, they also should benefit from some offensive reimagination and diversification with the likes of free-agent receiver acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling and second-round draft pick Skyy Moore blending in with the stellar Kelce and mercurial Mecole Hardman.

Prospects for the defense are another matter, starting with the loss of its most essential player, Mathieu, and all the tangibles and intangibles he provided. For that unit to be good, his de facto replacement, Justin Reid, will have to fill that void fast and first-round draft picks Trent McDuffie (a cornerback) and George Karlaftis (a defensive end) best be what they are touted as and appear to be.

It would be nice, too, if Melvin Ingram can be lured back to bolster the line. And if other draftees like linebacker Leo Chenal and safety Bryan Cook can make an instant impact.

This team still is being shaped, though, and where it’s all headed is a matter of conjecture. But this much we know:

In the wake of the release of the schedule, a different sort of mission and message should emerge now than at this time a year ago:

The Chiefs will be hard-pressed to reassert themselves as the team to beat … not one that’s unbeatable.

That’s plenty audacious this time around. But it’s also something that remains very much in their grasp until proven otherwise.

This story was originally published May 12, 2022 at 9:28 PM.

Vahe Gregorian

The Kansas City Star

816-234-4868

Vahe Gregorian has been a sports columnist for The Kansas City Star since 2013 after 25 years at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He has covered a wide spectrum of sports, including 10 Olympics. Vahe was an English major at the University of Pennsylvania and earned his master’s degree at Mizzou.