Two AFC West teams lead NFL ‘offseason improvement index.’ Is it enough to top Chiefs?
The Los Angeles Chargers have money to spend in free agency, and they haven’t been shy about making splashy moves.
The Chargers, who had nearly $40 million in cap space (per the NFLPA), traded for Bears outside linebacker Khalil Mack, gave Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson a five-year, $82.5 million deal and signed Rams defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day to a three-year, $24 million contract.
Also joining the Chargers is former Giants defensive tackle Austin Johnson.
The Denver Broncos also have been busy. They made arguably the biggest trade of the offseason, adding Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
Denver also sneaked in and signed former Cowboys outside linebacker Randy Gregory after it appeared he had a deal with Dallas. Additionally, the Broncos signed San Francisco defensive tackle D.J. Jones to a three-year, $30 million contract.
Pro Football Focus data scientist Kevin Cole said the Broncos and Chargers are 1-2 in the “offseason improvement index,” which looks at the total WAR (wins above replacement) each team has added.
Both teams are loading up in hopes of ending long streaks that have seen them either not win the AFC West or make the playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won a record six straight AFC West titles. The first came in 2016, and ended the Broncos’ five-year stretch as division champs. But Denver hasn’t been back to the postseason since winning that West title and later Super Bowl 50.
The Chargers’ last AFC West championship came back in the 2009 season. Since then they’ve made the playoffs in just two seasons.
Have they done enough? The oddsmakers still list the Chiefs as the favorite to win the AFC West, but things have tightened a bit. DraftKings has the Chiefs at +145, compared to +200 for the Broncos and +275 for the Chargers. The Raiders are a distant fourth at +1000.
The Score Bet summed up things this way on Twitter:
About the Chargers...
Seemingly each year since Patrick Mahomes has taken over at quarterback, KC fans have heard each summer about the Chargers being poised to unseat the Chiefs.
The commentators at “Good Morning Football” on the NFL Network are not convinced the Chargers should be considered the division favorite, despite all the big roster additions.
“I would like to think they’re there, but at the end of the day, they haven’t been able to get there,” Peter Schrager said on “Good Morning Football.” They’ve only been to the playoffs twice in the last 10 years and they always have great rosters.
“So Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert, is it enough to say they’re building or is it like they’re there? I’m not sure yet, because I know what Mahomes can do in a big game and I know what Russell Wilson could do in a big game. I’m waiting to see the Chargers as the Voltron really of what it could be. Because piece by piece, it looks great. It always does.”
Kyle Brandt said he considers Herbert the fourth-best quarterback in the West.
“He’s sub-500 in his career, he threw 15 interceptions last year,” Brandt noted. “All the promise and all the talent is there, but that’s gonna do nothing for them this year. Things just jumped up a notch. It really did. You’ve got to beat Russell Wilson a couple times and Mahomes. There’s so much to do.”
Here is the discussion:
However, NFL.com columnist Jim Trotter now sees the Chargers and Broncos as Super Bowl contenders.
“The question I keep coming back to with the Chiefs is, are they better able to make a defensive stand than the Broncos or Chargers, both of whose offenses should be able to keep pace with anyone?” Trotter wrote in a column about the AFC West. “To this point the answer is, no.”
Only two teams in NFL history have won seven or more division titles in a row: the Rams (seven from 1973-79) and Patriots (11, from 2009-19).
It’s clear that the Chargers and Broncos hope to keep the Chiefs from joining that list.
This story was originally published March 16, 2022 at 10:00 AM.
