Why Royals pitching coach Cal Eldred still says ‘sky’s the limit’ for KC’s young staff
Cal Eldred’s answer is blunt, but so is the question.
These are wild times to be a pitching coach anywhere, but especially with the Royals. Pitching is tracking toward historical levels of dominance, with 100 mph sinkers and 93 mph changeups and balls that move like they’re remote-controlled.
Those are usually good things for someone in Eldred’s line of work, except now Major League Baseball is taking the radical step of essentially changing the rules for pitchers, outlawing the means that a lot of pitchers currently use to better grip the baseball, in the middle of a season. People in and around the game wonder if this will lead to more injuries, more missed spots, sloppier play ... and let’s just say two things here.
First, Eldred has strong opinions about this, and they are not happy thoughts.
And second, if only that was Eldred’s biggest concern at the moment.
He knows the reason for this conversation. He knows that many of you are angry and wondering if the Royals’ young pitching — the foundation of the organization’s future, and until now collectively successful to an improbable extreme — needs a new voice, a new guide.
So, the question: To what level have the struggles of top pitching prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar surprised you and underperformed your expectations?
Eldred’s answer: “Well, you’re part of the media, aren’t you the expectation gurus? You guys, the media may have their expectations, the fans have them, we do as coaches, and they do as players. They’re dealing with that. But I think it goes back to — more than thinking about the numbers, more than thinking about the wins and losses — it goes really to simplify it down to making quality pitches.
“That sounds really simple. It’s not easy to do on a consistent basis, wherever you are, and if we can keep that the focus then there’s some people’s expectations that these kids will never reach because they’re probably unrealistic. But these young pitchers, to a certain extent, the sky is the limit.”
That’s all thoughtful and reasonable and in some ways part of Eldred’s job is to say and believe these things. Three years ago this month, the Royals used their first five draft picks on college starting pitchers. This reflected the combination of an organizational push to inject its farm system with high-ceiling arms and a belief among the club’s scouting staff that this particular draft class was loaded with promising college pitchers (and that college pitchers in general had become undervalued).
The plan was all pedal and no brakes until six weeks ago. That’s when Daniel Lynch’s transition to the big leagues turned into a horror show: three starts that totaled eight innings, 23 baserunners and 14 earned runs surrendered.
Eldred is giving the only answer someone in his position can, but the organization was caught by surprise. Lynch was baseball’s No. 7 pitching prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, with swing-and-miss stuff that was supposed to play in the big leagues even with inconsistent command. As it happened, Lynch’s mechanics betrayed him by fuzzing location and apparently alerting hitters to what was coming.
Fine. OK. That’s one person.
But then came Jackson Kowar, who was less hyped than Lynch — No. 95 overall on Pipeline’s list — but generally seen as a surer bet. Kowar pitched big games in the SEC, including in the College World Series, and had obliterated Class AAA hitters.
We’re only two starts in, but we’re two starts into another horror show: two innings, 13 baserunners and eight earned runs surrendered.
By Game Score, only eight men since 1920 have had worse outings in either of their first two starts than Lynch’s second game.
Kowar is the first pitcher since 1955 to not get more than four outs in either of his first two starts.
Eldred’s job is to help fix that.
“One, this is the major leagues and where they’re coming from is the minor leagues. That in itself, there’s a whole chasm of things that go along with that. From game planning … we obviously can get information quicker and faster and more of it. But the reality is they don’t get to face these kinds of hitters. That’s really tough. That’s the toughest part. And then it’s handling all that from a mental standpoint.
“Those are the biggest hurdles, right there. Physically they’re capable, their stuff (is) capable, and sometimes I’ll just tell you a little success goes a long way in gaining that confidence.”
Eldred is the point man in an operation that includes assistant pitching coach Larry Carter, Omaha manager Brian Poldberg, Omaha pitching coach Dane Johnson, director of pitching performance Paul Gibson, farm director JJ Picollo and more.
The process is more complicated than many fans and members of the media sometimes think about, and includes video and scouting reports and variety of opinions crosschecked against each other.
Onboarding prospects to the big-league roster is as complicated as ever with more than a year of competition replaced by training and alternate sites — remember, there was no minor league season last year because of the pandemic. Eldred’s view reflects the industry consensus, that the canyon of difference in both quality of hitters and information available in the big leagues is hard for many to cope with.
A pitch that works in the minor leagues doesn’t always work in the big leagues, and sometimes even a small mechanical flaw is exploited after a promotion. The change can be jarring, and the result can shake confidence, which only makes a difficult challenge worse.
“Kris Bubic is a perfect example,” Eldred said. “He’s had some really good games, he was really good for a nice extended period of time. He’s had some rougher innings (recently), so now how do we react to that? How do we handle that? I’m just using Kris as one example.
“Sometimes you gotta go back and work on some of the things like Daniel Lynch is right now. And he’ll get it. That’s my opinion. He’s a smart kid, he works his tail off, and he has great stuff. So I’ve got all the confidence in the world in these kids. Because they’ve got real good stuff. And you don’t get these opportunities if you don’t.”
Here’s another example. After his most recent start, Kowar mentioned his delivery going too fast, which left too many pitches high and off the plate to the third-base side.
This isn’t the first time Kowar’s mechanics have left him. The Royals know this. They also know those problems are easier to fix in the minors. This is true for lots of reasons — the flaws often still lead to outs against inferior hitting, and the fixes don’t have to be immediate and can be made away from the unforgiving light of the big leagues.
“What you’re trying to evaluate is: ‘Are their pitches major league-level pitches?’” Eldred said. “And so when they get here, it’s just continuing to repeat those major league level pitches. And sometimes with some of the extra stuff going on they may be a little more wound up doing it, but they know that’s what they need to do.
“That’s the standard we try to hold them to, because those pitches they’re making that are good quality pitches (in the minor leagues), they work here. The trick is to get them to be able to do it here.”
Eldred is no dummy. He knows that part of being a manager or coach in the big leagues is that you will probably eventually be fired when things aren’t going well. To be sure, there is no indication or reason to believe we’re close to that point.
But this front office’s push to the 2015 World Series championship was marked by a series of hitting-coach turnover — Kevin Seitzer was fired in 2012, then Jack Maloof and Andre David were reassigned in 2013, then George Brett stepped away a few months later, then Pedro Grifol was reassigned in 2014.
Those moves were made because the organization knew its future rested with a group of high-ceiling position players, the same as the organization knows now that the young pitchers are too important to fail.
One more time: There’s no indication or reason to believe we’re close to that. We bring it up only as a relevant reference point, and an indication of where the stakes are.
Eldred knows all of that. He’s good with it. He mentions a connection to this group built in part on them being essentially the same age as his own kids.
“So I see it, and I know how they’re responding,” Eldred said. “And I know what’s going through their mind for the most part. And some of it, you can tell them some things and they have to experience part of it. And most of them won’t do it again.
“Or they’ll do it a few times and they’ll realize, ‘OK, this is how I can get through that.’”