On the Kansas City Royals’ bad debuts ... and the next most important one
Less than halfway through the season and the 2021 Royals have transitioned two of their brightest prospects to the big leagues. Each has seen disastrous initial results.
This is a problem for any team. It is a particular problem for a team that believes it should be competing for the playoffs and knows it must rely on young talent to do so.
Daniel Lynch, in three starts: 23 baserunners and 14 earned runs in eight innings for a 15.75 ERA.
Jackson Kowar, in his big-league debut: five baserunners, four earned runs, and three wild pitches without getting through the first inning.
This is the kind of thing that can keep scouts and coaches up at night.
“Maybe this is the effect of our evaluation with Covid,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. “I don’t know. I’m not going to say that, because I’m not making any excuses at all. We have the data, and there’s nobody in our organization that said those guys aren’t ready for the next challenge. Nobody.”
Hopefully this is obvious, but it’s 2021, so maybe we need to say it anyway: the long-term projections on Lynch and Kowar are unchanged. The consensus remains that Lynch has elite talent, even by big-league standards, and nobody should be surprised if Kowar shoves in his next start.
The Royals — like all teams — have seen prospects debut with success (Salvador Perez hit .331 and played standout defense in 39 games as a 21-year-old in 2011) and struggles (Alex Gordon was hitting below .200 two months into his big-league career).
But the process of transitioning top prospects to the big leagues is worth deeper examination — not just because of how Lynch and Kowar have struggled initially, but because Bobby Witt Jr. headlines a group of top-shelf talent pushing closer to their own debuts.
This is more art than science, even with more objective data than ever before. This is part psychology, part detective work, part guesswork, part gut. The development of baseball players is one of sports’ greatest mysteries.
The process preferred by Moore and his assistants is their own but not radically dissimilar from other clubs’. Potential big-league talent is identified early. Among the goals set by club officials this offseason was to get Lynch and Kowar to the majors. That meant longer stays in big-league camp this spring, with higher-leverage opportunities against more major-league hitters.
The process is stocked with communication and cross checking. Moore is in regular contact with farm directory JJ Picollo, assistant GM Scott Sharp, scouting director Lonnie Goldberg, assistant GM Rene Francisco, head of analytics Daniel Mack and, in the cases of Lynch and Kowar, minor-league pitching coordinator Paul Gibson.
The Royals also bring big-league scouts in to watch, comparing what they’re accustomed to seeing. With Lynch, the club’s analytics suggested that Cleveland could be a good matchup. With Kowar, the club knew for weeks that it would need a starter for Monday’s game in Anaheim. They pulled him after 70 pitches in his most recent start at Class AAA.
“It’s buttoned up pretty good,” Moore said.
That doesn’t guarantee success. Obviously. Lynch had some bad luck in his debut that was amplified by nerves and a more fundamental problem with his delivery. He’s working his way back. You should expect him in the big leagues again soon. Kowar was also clearly nervous in his debut, with chest-pulsating breaths, spiked curveballs and sailing fastballs.
The complications are endless. The Royals are proud of the work done at last year’s (and April’s) alternate site, but one of Moore’s favorite truisms in player development is that you can’t create a big-league model in the minor leagues. Prospects missed a season plus a month of facing appropriate competition.
“The major-league hitter is a different animal,” Moore said. “Totally different, different animal.”
The Royals use the term “graduation” with big-league debuts, and that’s intentional. The club will still support and guide and nurture, but once you’ve been up you take more control over your career. You’re out of the house. The work is up to you. The pitch and count execution is yours.
That’s where Kowar and Lynch are now. They will each turn 25 this year, and have enough experience and (more importantly) talent that being too amped is no longer an explanation but a problem.
Witt Jr.’s turn is approaching, though perhaps not as quickly as you might think. He has eight home runs in his last 15 games — and, seriously, watch how quick his hands are on some of these — but also 19 strikeouts.
He has struck out twice or more in 10 games, has a .315 on-base percentage and a 35:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
This is not a criticism. This is an example of all the moving parts that go into these decisions. The Royals thought hard about putting Witt Jr. on their opening day roster, but through 11 games at Class AA he was hitting .178/.275/.244 with 14 strikeouts. That he’s now obliterating baseballs can be seen as validation of the club’s decision.
He’s in the right place. For now.
“He’s doing everything you want to see him do,” Moore said. “Every night, for me, he’s the most talented player on the field. He does so many different things to help you win a baseball game. And we’re going to make sure we’re 100 percent sure that he’s ready to come up, and stay up, and help.”
Some bonus context here. The Royals have generally been aggressive with promotions, believing that better competition brings out the best in the best. But for that final step, Moore likes to wait a week or so after a player is convinced he’s ready. The idea is for the player to arrive without a crumb of doubt, believing he’s been ready, rather than hoping he will be ready.
We are also in Moore’s preferred sweet spot of promotions. He believes this is around the time the season finds its rhythm, that players aren’t as amped up, a relatively low-energy stretch that can be good for transitions.
Full disclosure: That’s part of why I called Moore this week, wondering if the combination of Witt Jr.’s home run binge and the big-league team’s West Coast series in front of (presumably) small crowds in Oakland this weekend might be the super-prospect’s time.
As it turns out, there is virtually no chance of that. Moore would prefer Witt Jr. spend some time in Class AAA before arriving in Kansas City and, besides, there’s at least one more step for the Royals and Witt Jr. to complete.
Remember earlier, when we said the process is stocked with communication? That’s with more than just the scouts and coaches. That includes the player.
“Look him in the eye and ask if he’s ready to help us win at the major league level,” Moore said. “And then, based on his answer, ask him why he thinks he’s ready. It’s just such an important decision. It’s good — it’s healthy — to get the opinion of the player, as well.”
This story was originally published June 9, 2021 at 5:00 AM.