Mellinger Minutes: Pretty much mostly Chiefs, plus COVID, Mizzou and Hurtado’s stunner
We don’t talk much NBA here, and for good reason. We’re making an exception here at the top. Hopefully, that’s for good reason. Two points.
First, am I the only one who is comprehensively disinterested in the LeBron vs. Jordan thing? It’s such a false construct, comparing such different players and different careers, one of which began six years after the other’s last relevant game.
Can we not appreciate each as the best player of their time? Admire each for unique and wildly successful careers? Does everything have to be some cliche talk radio segment?
LeBron may or may not be the best player in basketball history. But the insinuation that if he’s merely top 2, or top 4, or top 5 — IN THE HISTORY OF HIS SPORT — that he’s somehow failed is honest-to-goodness-and-I-don’t-say-this-lightly one of the dumbest things I can imagine functioning humans saying.
lowers cane, stops yelling at clouds, accepts that kids will walk across the lawn
Second: the NBA finished a season! During a pandemic! With remarkably few problems!
This is me desperately hoping the right lessons are learned from this (and the NHL’s success, and MLS’ in Orlando). For the NFL, the lesson should be that if they keep having to reschedule games they do have a break-glass emergency option.
They could create 32 bubbles, put a pause on the season to isolate, and push the games and postseason back two weeks.
It’s a last resort, and would put a lot of stress on the families of players, coaches, and support staff who would be separated for nearly three months (plus the postseason) including the holidays. You’d almost certainly have to work around a lot of opt outs.
But we see that it’s working. Right or wrong, explainable or not, football is important to a lot of us. Our lives are enhanced. More to the point, the NFL has an unfathomably large financial incentive to get this done.
It’s a potential option, at least.
The other lessons from the NBA can be applied by the rest of us. We don’t have the money or lifestyle to bubble up in a fancy hotel for months. That’s both ridiculous and not what I’m saying.
You’ve heard me complain about our polarization. You’re either in our group or the other, the best or the worst, right or wrong, and there’s no consideration to the other side. The handling of COVID-19 might be the best example.
But we’re seeing more and more areas that prove how wrong that is.
We have a huge middle ground between caution and living. COVID-19 should not paralyze our lives with fear, but it also must be respected. We’ve allowed this false construct where you either wear a mask or you live your life. It’s nonsense. Wear a mask and live your life.
Go to a football game, but don’t be a dolt when you’re there. Go out to dinner, but sit outside if you can, and distance as much as possible if you can’t. Send your kids to school, provided the right precautions are in place.
There’s risk in everything, and always has been. More than ever before, it’s time to understand and diminish those risks.
This is what the health experts are telling us, but we live in a world in which way too many people think they know more than those who’ve studied these things their entire lives.
The NBA could’ve shut down, but think of everything that would’ve been lost.
Major League Baseball inched close to a shutdown, but the sport rallied, presumably with better protocols and stricter adherence to those protocols. We’re now in the final steps, the last four teams sharing bubbled hotels. I’m thrilled for that success, and hope anyone who thought the sport was acting recklessly reconsiders.
The NFL is somewhere in the middle here, at least for now. The league is not as close to the brink as baseball was for a spell there, but the league is closer than it should be with the benefits it had in time.
Hopefully it doesn’t come to this, but if it does, hopefully the league sees the NBA’s strategy as a potential (if undesirable) option.
This week’s eating recommendation is the chicken sandwich at Lucky Boys and the reading recommendation is Aaron Randle on America’s only successful coup.
Thanks to everyone who’s listened to our Mellinger Minutes For Your Ears podcast, and here is a big warm invitation to start if you haven’t already. We’re out from behind the paywall and free on Apple or Spotify or Stitcher or wherever you get your shows.
Last week, we went heavy on the Chiefs, including some about the flaws that showed again in the loss to the Raiders.
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Nobody can tell you how to be a fan. I know I say that a lot, but I say it a lot because it’s true, and because the world is full of people who want to tell you exactly how to be a fan.
I hope this is an example of my natural tendency but I don’t think either extreme gets us anywhere productive. I believe the smart stuff is in the middle.
The Chiefs have a very good football team. The NFL is full of teams that would trade problems. The Chiefs are 4-1, a game up in the division with a track record that says they’ll stay there.
So, we can be realistic here and not believe the bottom is falling out. But if we do that, we should also be realistic enough to see that wasn’t a fluke.
The Raiders outclassed the Chiefs, which is a weird thing to type. The Raiders won both lines of scrimmage, had a superior gameplan, and superior execution. That roster is light years better than before Mike Mayock took over.
The Raiders deserve all the credit. But we look at these things with a Kansas City-centric perspective and from here we saw a lot of familiar problems.
They were too sloppy, for one. Ten penalties, including two that erased points, including one that erased a Patrick Mahomes pass that his trainer called one of the best five in his career. The thing should be in a museum somewhere — 65 yards in the air, perfectly placed — so good we’re showing it here:
But it didn’t count. Officially, it never happened. The Chiefs are tied for the sixth-most penalties. They’ve been relatively fortunate with timing, and being able to overcome the worst ones. That trend ended with a thud against the Raiders.
The run game needs to be better. This is the fourth time in five games that the Chiefs’ opponent has flooded the field with defensive backs, urging Mahomes to throw short and Reid to call run plays.
Mahomes is throwing short, too. His average completion is a yard closer to the line of scrimmage than either of his first two seasons. His average target is more than a yard shorter.
Mahomes should not be forcing the ball into double coverage, and statistically the Chiefs have been pretty good on the ground — 5.05 yards per rush on 1st and 10, for instance, which is sixth in the league.
But too much of that has come from Reid’s playbook, and not the players’ execution. Edwards-Helaire is averaging just 4.2 yards per rush on first down, for instance.
The Chiefs average 4.1 yards per rush with Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. They average 5.9 yards when it’s Mahomes or Tyreek Hill.
As strong as Reid and Eric Bieniemy are, you can’t ghost jet motion your way to a sustainable run game.
I want to be clear: I’m not asking for the Chiefs to run the ball more. But when they do run it, particularly against six or seven defensive backs, they need to be more effective. Otherwise it enforces the strategy, and becomes more difficult.
They also need to be able to stop the run in key moments. We saw that on the Raiders’ last possession. The Chiefs had cut the deficit in half, and with one more drive could’ve forced overtime. But the defense could not get off the field. Josh Jacobs is terrific, and the Raiders have a physical line. But the Chiefs need that stop.
That said, the single biggest failure against the Raiders was in pass defense. There were some snaps where the backs just got beat. I’m not here to hammer them for that.
The NFL has intentionally made cornerback nearly impossible to play well by any other era’s standards, and that group of receivers — I’m including Darren Waller here with Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow and Nelson Agholor — is going to be a problem for most defenses.
But the blown assignments need to be cleaned up. The full All-22 isn’t available yet, but the broadcast did a good job breaking down the most obvious example. No effective defense will ever be designed to have a cornerback on Ruggs without help over the top. We don’t know the assignments, but this has to be a mistake by Daniel Sorensen:
All that said, the pass rush has to be better. They only hit Derek Carr four times. They were credited with a sack — Willie Gay’s first! — but that was a scramble in which Carr slid to the ground a yard behind the line of scrimmage.
Pass rush is always important, but it’s particularly so against the Raiders. Carr, particularly with these weapons, can score a lot of points. But we also have seven years of his career that tell us he’ll freak out under pressure. The Chiefs did not produce nearly enough pressure.
Jeez. I’ve basically written two columns with two video embeds here and we’re not even out of the first question yet, so we should get going.
But the following two truths will guide the rest of this time suck, as well as any other content from me until further notice:
The Chiefs are a very good team, and the logical Super Bowl favorite.
They’ve consistently shown similar flaws through five weeks, and those need to be fixed.
Part of Gene’s charm is his focus on the negative when things aren’t going well. So let’s keep that in perspective.
The only part of the question I disagree with is about the pass blocking. I realize I’m in the minority here, but to me that hasn’t been a problem. Pro Football Focus ranks the Chiefs sixth in pass blocking. Football Outsiders puts the Chiefs No. 1. According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs’ pressure rate is eighth best. Only four teams have allowed fewer sacks.
So let’s stop blaming the pass protection, even if nobody wants to hear that at least some of the pressures are Mahomes’ fault for drifting in the pocket.
The rest of this, well, yeah.
They need to be able to stop the run better than they have. I think we all agree on that. This has been an issue for years. They also need to decide whether they can get ahead of the sticks with a called running back run on 1st and 10 against sub packages, or just go all-in and throw it 75 percent of the time, with short and intermediate routes that can soften Cover 2 and create long passes.
Because this middle ground isn’t serving either goal.
You mentioned injuries, and those are real. Sammy Watkins’ production isn’t great, but it’s a verifiable fact that the offense operates significantly better with him on the field. Keleche Osemele is a significant loss. He was their best run blocker, particularly on the interior. L’Jarius Sneed and Khalen Saunders are being missed.
Those are real issues, but football is never perfect, and everybody has injuries.
The good news for the Chiefs is that their problems are relatively light, and the solutions are all available in house.
This is a 13-3 team. Watching them is a little like watching a good NBA team. We know they’ll be in the playoffs. A first-round bye would be great, but the more important thing is the team’s form in January.
We’ve talked a lot about the first three questions, so I want to focus on the last point.
This is just one play, but it sure felt like a big one:
That’s indicative of a lot that went wrong, and has gone wrong. First, don’t get into 3rd and 20. The Chiefs can convert some of those, but that’s no way to live. This one came after a holding call on Mike Remmers. Penalties. Too many.
But, OK. It happened. Fine. The protection is good, giving Mahomes time to go through all the reads. He escapes for more time, has the awareness to stop in front of the line of scrimmage, and sees Nick Keizer breaking over the middle. The ball hits him in the hands. That has to be caught.
If he does, the Chiefs have it in field goal range with plenty of time to make it a touchdown that would’ve put them up 28-17. The Raiders are deflated. Instead, the Chiefs punt, and the Raiders’ third snap is that long touchdown to Ruggs. Now the Raiders are ahead. The Chiefs never regained the lead.
That’s some of what Mahomes hammered in his postgame comments.
“If you don’t play at a high enough level against good football teams you’re going to lose games,” he said to the first question.
“We didn’t execute,” he said to the second question.
“They didn’t change any coverages, we just didn’t execute in the second half,” he said to the third question.
“When you’re in first and 20, 2nd and 20, it’s hard to get first downs,” he said to the fourth question.
“We’ve kind of done it these last few weeks, obviously other than the Ravens game, where we didn’t execute at a high enough level to go out there and score like we’ve been known to score. It caught up with us today,” he said to the last question.
The tendency is to roll your eyes at the cliches, but he’s giving you the answer here. The Chiefs aren’t doing basic things — avoiding penalties, making the right reads, catching the ball — that are fogging up the whole operation.
The margins are smaller than the Chiefs make them appear sometimes. They have enough ways to cover mistakes that their margins are bigger than most, but they still need to do their jobs, especially against a team with talent like the Raiders.
The Ravens game would’ve been fun, too, but yeah. The answer to your first question is yes.
I’ve always believed you learn more from losses than wins* and that’s true for reporters as much as it is the players.
* That’s true in life, not just sports.
You can see dynamics. You can see interactions. Two years ago, I wrote a lot about how the defense (particularly the secondary) was disconnected. They believed they were being put in unfair situations, and taking on an unfair amount of the blame.
I actually agreed with them — and so did Andy Reid, or else Bob Sutton would still be the defensive coordinator — but those insights are only gained by being in the locker room.
We’ve seen glimpses this season over Zoom calls. Mahomes, in particular, has been noticeably down after the Chargers, Patriots and Raiders games. His comments are interesting, too. He’s slowly and subtly gone from claiming more blame than he should to now painting the failures as collective.
You asked who I’d be seeking out. The linemen are great for this kind of thing, particularly Austin Reiter and Mitchell Schwartz. You can tell a lot — good or bad — from Chris Jones’ body language.
Anthony Hitchens is one of the team’s smartest and most honest men. Tyrann Mathieu is terrific, though when he’s in group interviews he does that coach thing where he speaks to his teammates through his answers. Sammy Watkins is another good one. Frank Clark might be the most insightful guy in the room. I’m sure I’m missing someone.
Anyway, this is a highly motivated, talented, and smart group. These guys are professionals. I’d expect them to handle this the right way, but I do miss being able to see that process in more detail. I hate that the coverage you get is suffering from that, but we’re all doing the best we can.
The Chiefs have ranked sixth, first, and 18th in most penalties the last three seasons. They’re eighth right now. This is not out of character. This is more who they are than it is an exception.
Penalties can be misleading. I’m not making the point here that penalties are good, but you know who was really great at avoiding penalties? The 2012 Chiefs. Only five teams were called for fewer penalties that season. Nobody wants that team back.
The problems come with big penalties, the ones that wipe out game changing plays, or put the offense in 3rd and 20. The penalties that take points away, or ruin drives. The Chiefs had too many of those against the Raiders.
I don’t. Reid’s time here makes it clear that he wants to invest in tackles and then sort of get by on the inside.
There’s strategy here. You’re freed up to use that capital on other positions, obviously, and Reid’s scheme allows for interior linemen who aren’t as measurably gifted. His plays are, generally, about timing. They’re about being in the right spot at the precise right moment. You don’t need Quenton Nelson’s gifts to do that.
That means the interior of the line is sort of a baked-in issue. You see how often the Chiefs use misdirection and end arounds and shovel passes in short yardage. That’s on purpose, because Reid knows he’s not getting that last yard on a halfback dive.
Reid would love to have the interior line of, say, the Cowboys. But you can’t prioritize everything.
The answer in the run game is to continue to work on timing. They have some zone blocking stuff that’s effective when the timing is right, and awful when it’s not. Those guys are good on their feet.
This was never going to be the NFL’s version of Nebraska in the 1990s. But the run game should be better than it is now, particularly when judged on the curve of facing so many sub packages.
I’ve had similar thoughts, but offensive line play is hard to quantify so I thought it was worth looking at Pro Football Focus.
They rate his run blocking worse than any of his previous four seasons in Kansas City, and his pass blocking the worst since 2017. They still have him 21st overall among all tackles, so it’s not like he’s bombing, but you’re right. It sure doesn’t seem like he’s been the set-it-and-forget-it guy we’ve become used to.
But, a few more points.
He’s given up eight pressures, which is in line for his season average of 28 in Kansas City. He’s been called for just one penalty, and given up two sacks.
So, I don’t know. We’re used to seeing Schwartz turn his side’s pass rusher into a ghost. He gave up zero sacks all of last season.
But if this is him struggling, the Chiefs will be happy.
He’s 31 years old. That’s far too young to expect an offensive lineman to drop off. Schwartz has a long track record that says this is a relative slump. I’ll trust that.
I actually don’t know. Those numbers are available to us, but I’ve learned that I’m not as good at my job when I’m thinking about that. I want to do everything in my power to be sure my columns are what I truly believe, and not what I truly believe will generate clicks.
But if I had to guess, here’s the ranking of what generates clicks:
1. Super Bowl run.
2. Patrick Mahomes.
3. Terrible losses.
big gap
4. Big wins.
big gap
5. 8-8.
Again, I can’t say this for sure. I’m guessing.
But I do know that I’ve never had easier or better received columns than the ones the 2012 Chiefs gave me.
Look, time will tell on this, right? LSU is now 1-2, and unranked. This is Missouri’s first win, and the Tigers need more to say they’re where they want to be.
All that said, this sure felt like the kind of win we’ll remember.
They were missing three of their best four defensive linemen, and three playmakers on offense. They’re starting a freshman quarterback, with a first-year head coach. They turned it over three times, and didn’t convert a fake punt.
And they won the game, against a bunch of guys with much higher recruiting rankings.
Mizzou went for 586 yards, won the line of scrimmage, got stops when they needed to, and overcame bad breaks and mistakes.
The game came down to one yard, and Mizzou deserves all the credit for making the important plays. But even if that last series went the other way the Tigers still looked more organized, more together, more whole than they have in years.
They need to back this up. They need to stack wins. The Vanderbilt game has been postponed because of an outbreak at Vandy, and that would’ve been an interesting game. Losing to the Commodores last year was the beginning of Barry Odom’s end.
As it stands, Mizzou’s next game is at Florida. The SEC is unforgiving. But Missouri appears improved, which is the point here. It’s hard to imagine Mizzou beating LSU like that if the players had not bought in on Eli Drinkwitz, or if Drinkwitz was overmatched in the SEC.
This is a big deal, is the point.
Or, at least that’s what it feels like at the moment.
Let’s see.
This thing really was a stunner. Let’s go to the tape:
Mercy.
It cannot be done better than that.
Hurtado said he’s scored that goal before, which makes sense, because something that magical takes a lot of practice. But we haven’t seen it at this level, and that it keyed a win and gave Sporting nine points in three matches (two without Alan Pulido) is encouraging.
I still get the feeling this team will be better next year, but that doesn’t matter in the moment, and if anything makes this current run even more encouraging.
Although, just full disclosure here, your boy is a YouTube TV customer so I’m going to have to take your word for it for a while because downloading a VPN to stream from my computer to the TV sounds like a lot of work right now.
Also: you asked a question.
This past July 4, smoked three racks of ribs that were so delicious they have become legend. I have very little idea what I did differently, so this may end up like Brady Anderson in 1998 (without the steroids) but if you could eat Hurtado’s goal it would taste like those ribs.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for the fall. This looks like the first week that will really feel like my favorite season, with days warm enough to run outside in shorts and nights cold enough for a fire. I would give up wings AND nachos if it meant this weather year round.
This story was originally published October 13, 2020 at 5:00 AM.