FiveThirtyEight.com on why Chiefs can avoid another letdown after fast start to season

Guess what happens when you start the season with two straight wins and your quarterback throws 10 touchdowns and no interceptions?

You get a lot of attention from around the country.

That has been the case for the Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. National media members wrote extensively about Mahomes after he threw six touchdown passes in the Chiefs’ 42-37 win over the Steelers on Sunday. Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner talked recently about Mahomes’ ability on NFL Network.

The Chiefs even got love from FiveThirtyEight.com, which is known for its statistical analysis.

There is an article with the headline, “Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are red-hot. For once, they might stay that way.”

Fans have seen the Chiefs in past seasons start strong and falter, particularly once the postseason begins. FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Payne believes the offense’s versatility under Mahomes might be able to end that jinx.

Payne opens the story by saying Sunday’s Chiefs-49ers matchup sets up as one of the best in the NFL this weekend. He makes a historical comparison for Mahomes’ fast start to the 2018 season and how the Chiefs’ offense has changed this season. Payne then writes about the Chiefs’ recent history:

“Kansas City is hoping this newfound offensive attack can prevent another midseason letdown like the one the team suffered last year. The 2017 Chiefs also got off to a blazing start, winning their first five games behind a dominating offense. Then they promptly lost six of seven at midseason to bring their record to 6-6, requiring a four-game end-of-season winning streak just to make the playoffs. That wasn’t exactly rare for K.C. under Andy Reid: The Chiefs finished the 2014 season on a 2-4 stretch after starting 7-3, and they went 2-5 down the stretch in 2013 after a 9-0 start. So Chiefs fans would be forgiven for tempering their optimism at the moment. But the versatility of this year’s attack — made possible in part by Mahomes’s unique arm strength and comfort level in a spread system — might be the missing ingredient that makes this hot start more sustainable than the ones that fizzled in years past.”

The Chiefs are indeed versatile. Mahomes has thrown touchdown passes to seven different receivers this season, running back Kareem Hunt is the reigning NFL rushing leader, and the Chiefs’ receiving corps has been ranked first by ESPN.

That’s reason for optimism, but Paine also noted that this week’s opponent should give Chiefs fans reason to pause. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was the toast of the NFL at the end of last season, but he’s struggled at the start of the season.

“Garoppolo’s 2018 also illustrates the reversion that is sure to come for Mahomes sooner or later: San Francisco’s highly paid QB has seen his QBR (Total Quarterback Rating) drop from 82.7 in 2017 to 22.7 this season,” Paine wrote. “He’ll almost certainly improve on that in the near future — perhaps substantially so against a K.C. defense that currently ranks a distant last in the NFL in defensive expected points added. But Mahomes can learn from his counterpart how quickly a QB can go from acclaim to adversity once opposing defenses study enough of his tape.”

You can read the entire article here.

This story was originally published September 20, 2018 at 12:10 PM.