Chiefs-Chargers prediction: Can KC’s offense lean into this one L.A. vulnerability?
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night.
Here are the game details:
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
TV: KSHB (Channel 41 in Kansas City, Channel 3 in Wichita)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs by 4.
Chiefs-Chargers game prediction
The Chiefs are going to win another game this season by more than a field goal.
Right?
In any case, one thing that certainly hasn’t been right lately has been these against-the-spread predictions. They’ve stunk. I keep thinking the Chiefs are better than they’ve shown so far and one game will put that together for a complete performance.
Those hunches have looked silly in recent weeks.
And yet, the Chiefs are here again, fresh off extended rest and playing at home against a Chargers team that just won its own game last week against the Atlanta Falcons in a most unlikely way: Los Angeles’ 187 yards of offense in a 17-13 victory was its lowest output in a road win since 1960.
Give new coach Jim Harbaugh credit for this much: He’s changed an organization known for losing all of its close games to one that expects to win — even in contests like last week where one advanced box score said they perhaps should’ve lost resoundingly.
The Chargers, at this point, aren’t that difficult to figure out. At first glance, they’re even a bit like the old Martyball Chiefs: They play great defense, try to establish physicality in the run game, then wait for you to make errors they can take advantage of.
And QB Justin Herbert has committed to his part. Herbert has no interceptions in his last 10 games, which is one contest off tying the longest NFL streak since 1970.
The Chargers also are plus-11 in turnover margin, and they’re opportunistic in a way non-Harbaugh teams were not.
But that doesn’t mean these Chargers don’t have flaws.
For one, the team’s offense is struggling without injured running back J.K. Dobbins (knee). Dobbins ranks seventh among running backs in Next Gen Stats’ “Rush yards over expectation,” and backup Gus Edwards simply doesn’t have the same juice.
Los Angeles is also facing a similar dilemma while lacking playmakers on the outside. Rookie Ladd McConkey has been great — doing lots of damage on routes over the middle — but he’s battling shoulder and knee injuries and is questionable for the game. The Chargers haven’t had much consistency behind him, leaving Herbert few quick options in the pass game when he isn’t able to target his one reliable guy.
The Chargers defense is excellent. First-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter does a great job keeping things relatively simple to allow his guys to play fast while also mixing in the occasional un-scouted look. An example: Los Angeles surprised Mahomes in the teams’ Week 4 matchup, sending with a blitz from the slot corner that resulted in a 9-yard sack and the rare instance of the Chiefs QB not seeing the field cleanly.
Los Angeles also has a claim for best secondary in the NFL. Rookie Tarheeb Still — he had two interceptions last week — is a rising star, while safety Derwin James is having a 2024 renaissance while being utilized more in pass-rush situations.
The Chiefs could be the type of team to expose one area of weakness, though. The Chargers rarely load the box against the run, and they’ve especially struggled to stop run games from opponents who use two-tight-end sets.
No one goes to those offensive looks more than the Chiefs. And though KC had its worst rushing game of the season last week, this could be a good moment to pivot back to that attack against an L.A. defense with few other vulnerabilities.
Another note: It’s forecast to be a windy night, so that won’t help the pass offenses.
It’s a challenging prediction because of the unknowns. How will Chiefs new left tackle D.J. Humphries perform? And if McConkey plays, will his health allow him to be productive?
This will sound like broken-record talk, but the Chiefs offensive players feel close to a breakthrough. While last year was about complementary football with the defense, they believe the ceiling is higher for this team’s unit if a few more details go right.
And on defense, the Chiefs have been awful the last three games but will see a favorable matchup once again. Suppose cornerback Joshua Williams can solidify the secondary as he did in last week’s game against the Raiders. In that case, the Chiefs should see more success than they have lately against an offense lacking star power among its non-QB skill players.
The crystal ball (if repaired from the last few weeks) sees 20-plus-mph gusts keeping overall scoring down in this one.
But it also pictures the Chiefs finally performing more like their expectations, with competent offensive tackle play and solid run-blocking turning the team back into its happy-to-grind self offensively.
Add that to a defense helped by a couple extra rest days, and the blueprint is there for the Chiefs to do something they haven’t in six weeks: cover the spread.
I think it happens here. Give me the Chiefs for the comfortable win and cover.
Chiefs 24, Chargers 13
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 33, Raiders 10 (Actual: Chiefs 19-17) ❌
2024 record vs. spread: 5-6-1
Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 30-22-1 (58%)
This story was originally published December 7, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
