Chiefs’ defense only getting by with ‘God’s grace’ on final drives. What’s the fix?
Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows this is not a repeatable formula.
KC’s defense had a chance to end the game in the final two minutes of last week’s 19-17 home victory over Las Vegas, only to allow the Raiders to drive the length of the field before they eventually botched a snap and lost a fumble in field-goal range.
In other words ... not a successful late-game blueprint.
“Hopefully we keep getting God’s grace,” Spagnuolo said with a smile on Thursday, before deadpanning his next line: “I’m banking on that going forward.”
In all seriousness, Spagnuolo knows, the Chiefs’ defense needs to find a way to reverse the trend of being unreliable in the game’s most important moments.
A fourth-quarter stop could have secured wins in each of the Chiefs’ last three victories. In each instance, however, the defense failed its initial duty before turning responsibility back to the rest of the team (or a higher power).
Denver drove 43 yards on its final possession in Week 10, only to have its game-winning field goal attempt blocked by linebacker Leo Chenal in the Chiefs’ 16-14 home win.
Two weeks later, Carolina moved 49 yards for a touchdown in the final three minutes before a late Chiefs field-goal drive answered for a 30-27 KC win.
The trend continued on Black Friday. The Raiders, taking over with less than two minutes to play, went 49 yards on six plays to put themselves in game-winning field goal range before their final fumble.
Spagnuolo admitted Thursday those late failures were “frustrating the heck” out of him as the team searched for answers.
“Our guys, to a man, always want to be out there in that situation,” Spagnuolo said.
So what’s the fix?
Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie lent some insight during his conversation with reporters this week. Last season, he believed Chiefs defenders played their best in those late moments because they knew their assignments and could play fast with free minds.
That’s changed some this season with new personnel. McDuffie said Spagnuolo made it a point this week to simplify some finer points to let his guys simply go out and play.
“I think this year, just little things with details (have gone wrong),” McDuffie said. “Little things that guys are freezing, not knowing what to do, has slowed us down a little bit.”
That seemed to be the case when examining the Raiders’ final drive.
On tight end Brock Bowers’ 25-yard reception, for example, Chiefs cornerback Chamarri Conner was in zone coverage with no defender supporting him underneath to help on the Raiders’ best player.
The next snap, KC had players getting into position late on an 11-yard pass to Jakobi Meyers. And the play after that, Spagnuolo brought an all-out blitz that was beaten by alignment, as rookie safety Jaden Hicks was positioned too deep pre-snap while allowing a short throw-and-catch to running back Ameer Abdullah for seven yards.
Spagnuolo was adamant Thursday that after reviewing the plays, he did not believe communication was the defense’s issue on that drive.
“There were a couple mental errors — guys that didn’t do what they were supposed to do — and that always is going to lead to a longer play or an unsuccessful play for us,” Spagnuolo said. “But I would not say that that’s (bad communication) what that is.”
The late struggles are part of an overall downturn for the Chiefs’ defense in recent weeks.
FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz, for instance, pointed out that per his all-encompassing DVOA measure, the Chiefs’ pass defense ranked fourth between Weeks 1-7 but has been 29th from Weeks 8-13.
Some recent numbers are even more alarming. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Chiefs’ defense has been burned when playing man coverage (plays logged as Cover 0, 1, or Cover 2 Man): Opponents have earned 30.12 expected points against that setup in the last three games.
No other NFL defense has allowed more than 13 expected points over that span with its man coverage schemes.
As a whole, the team’s man-defense numbers have cratered as well. In 2023, Sports Info Solutions had the Chiefs playing man the seventh-highest rate of any team with the fifth-best success rate; this year, KC is eighth in usage, but 31st in success rate.
Regarding the secondary specifically, McDuffie said he wanted better communication and for guys to make more plays on the ball.
More than that, though, he hoped to see an attitude shift.
“Going into this week and moving forward, I think the defensive back room’s just got to get that confidence back,” McDuffie said. “Trust each other, and just go out there and play how we always play.”
McDuffie said Spagnuolo has spoken a lot with cornerbacks this week about being physical at the line of scrimmage while looking to disrupt the timing of opponents’ routes.
That emphasis could help the Chiefs not only throughout the game, but also during those most critical moments late.
“We’ve just got to play better, coordinate better,” Spagnuolo said of the game-ending possessions. “Somebody’s got to make a play.”
