How Chiefs could be in position to rest starters Week 18: Kansas City playoff scenarios
The Kansas City Chiefs could earn themselves some much-needed rest if they can come through with a victory Sunday against Cincinnati.
That’s because, depending on how the weekend plays out, there’s a strong likelihood KC will lock itself into the AFC’s No. 3 seed before the Week 18 games are played.
Start with this: The Chiefs clinch the AFC West title with a win against the Bengals. That would guarantee a home game in the Wild Card round.
If that happens, KC could only earn the AFC’s No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
And the Chiefs will know before their 3:25 p.m. Central kickoff whether the 2 seed is still in play.
Here are the two games to watch at noon Sunday: Miami at Baltimore and New England at Buffalo.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, if Miami or Buffalo wins Sunday, it would eliminate the Chiefs from earning a 2 seed.
Let’s talk through each of these. If Miami and KC win, then the Dolphins would be 12-4 and the Chiefs would be 10-6. Though KC owns the tiebreaker over Miami because of its head-to-head win in November, the Chiefs couldn’t make up a two-game gap with one week left.
Meanwhile, if Buffalo and KC win, both teams would sit at 10-6. The Bills, if they defeated the Dolphins the next week to win the AFC East, would earn the 2 seed over the Chiefs thanks to their head-to-head win at Arrowhead on Dec. 10.
KC, with a win, could not fall to the AFC’s 4 seed; the Chiefs would finish no worse than 10-7, and no AFC South team can finish better than 10-7. The Chiefs own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and their at-worst 8-4 conference record would be above the Houston Texans.
The third tiebreaker — common opponents — would give KC the edge over Indianapolis if it won its last two contests and the division. The two teams have shared opponents Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and New England, and assuming a Chiefs win against the Bengals, KC would have a 4-1 mark in those games compared to a 2-3 at-best record for Indy.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid has a history of resting starters the last week if his team is locked into a seed. The most recent example was the 2020 season, when quarterback Patrick Mahomes sat out (among others) for the season finale against the Chargers after KC had already earned the No. 1 seed with a 14-1 record.
KC winning this weekend combined with a Miami or Buffalo loss is a likely scenario. The Chiefs are 6 1/2-point sportsbook favorites over the Bengals, while the Bills are 14-point home favorites against the Patriots. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 3 1/2-point underdogs against the Ravens.
If the Chiefs lock themselves into the AFC No. 3 seed, who would be the most likely opponent? At the moment, it would be Buffalo, which the New York Times simulator gives a 49% of earning the No. 6 seed.
And that’s one reason why Chiefs fans will want to pull for the Ravens this weekend if they’d like to avoid an early matchup with the Bills. If the Dolphins lose to the Ravens, then the Bills could still win the AFC East with a Week 18 victory at Miami.
That potential scenario (assuming a KC win over Cincinnati) would bring its share of intrigue as well. Two Miami losses and two Buffalo wins, according to the Times’ simulator, would move the Dolphins to the 6 seed ... and set up a Tyreek Hill reunion in KC for the opening round of the playoffs.
KC could certainly use some time off at this point in the year. The Chiefs are completing a stretch where six consecutive opponents had a rest advantage against them on gameday.
This story was originally published December 29, 2023 at 2:56 PM.
