Chiefs-Bengals prediction: Should KC be trusted vs. Cincinnati after disastrous loss?
The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cincinnati Bengals at home on Sunday. Here are the details:
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chiefs by 6 1/2.
Game prediction
It’s safe to say the Chiefs and Bengals aren’t who we expected them to be at the beginning of the season.
The Chiefs offense, unexpectedly, looks mortal. The Bengals, meanwhile, aren’t the same without injured quarterback Joe Burrow, but their most significant step back actually has been in a different area.
Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo earned the reputation the last few seasons as a defensive wizard, seeming to scheme up better production than expected from a unit with limited superstars.
For whatever reason, that pixie dust has worn off some this year. Cincinnati, which ranked seventh defensively in FTN Fantasy’s all-encompassing DVOA metric in 2022, has plunged to 26th this season, featuring bottom-10 league marks against both the pass and run.
The Chiefs offense could certainly use this type of opponent, given the circumstances. KC was bad all around in last week’s home loss to Las Vegas, with the offensive line, receivers, quarterback and coaches all deserving a piece of the blame.
This seems like an opportunity to get right. The Chiefs also should have some extra fuel this week, spurred by outside criticism and also trash talk from the Bengals’ locker room and receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
It’s always wise not to overreact to one week’s results when trying to predict outcomes. KC’s offense obviously didn’t have it last week (extra-windy conditions didn’t help), but it’ll get a fresh start Sunday with a wiped-off scoreboard, too.
Some good news for KC: It’ll be cold but not as breezy on Sunday. That means the Chiefs’ passing game should have fewer obstacles while going against a defense that has been especially susceptible to allowing big plays.
My rational brain also keeps thinking this: What if the Chiefs could avoid the 1-2 substantial offensive mistakes they seemingly make every week? It’s bound to happen sometime, and when it does, the Chiefs will likely see a 10- to 14-point boost without doing anything all that different.
The Bengals have plenty of playoff motivation in this one. And they also have played the Chiefs tough lately, quickly turning this into one of the NFL’s best rivalries.
I just see so much going better for the Chiefs on Sunday. Mahomes will be sounder. So will the O-line. And though the defense was great last week, it’ll undoubtedly be motivated to show Chase what it can do.
Yes, it might seem out there following last week’s result, but I like the Chiefs big in this one. Give me KC for both the win and cover, as I see the team coming together following its most challenging week of the year.
Chiefs 31, Bengals 14
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 23, Raiders 10 (Actual: Raiders 20-14) ❌
2023 record vs. spread: 9-6
Last two seasons record vs. spread: 21-14
