Add it up and all signs point to close Super Bowl between Kansas City Chiefs and Bucs
The Chiefs and Buccaneers do many of the same things well. They rank 1-2 in the NFL in passing offense, eighth and tenth in scoring defense and fourth and fifth in fewest sacks allowed. Does that point to a close Super Bowl?
Consider some history, a small sample size for the Chiefs, and the Super Bowl career of Tom Brady. In the Chiefs’ five-game playoff winning streak they trailed by at least nine points four times, and won them all by double digits. The Chiefs are the ultimate cool customer.
Brady is appearing in his 10th Super Bowl, a mind-blowing achievement. That’s twice as many as the next quarterback on the list, John Elway. Brady is 6-3 in the big game with an average victory margin of 4.8 points and loss margin of five points. Eight of the nine games were decided by one score.
Brady keeps games close.
Also, the regular season meeting between the teams: 27-24, Chiefs.
It adds up to a tight game. Here are some ways they’ll operate:
When the Chiefs pass
The pass and catch game has been remarkable for the Chiefs in the two playoff games, especially as it involves Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Both have surpassed 100 yards receiving in the victories over the Browns and Bills. Hill had his best game as a pro in Tampa Bay during the regular season, and be assured Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will do all he can to prevent a repeat performance. The Bucs like to blitz and defensive ends Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combined for 17 1/2 sacks. But Mahomes has the NFL’s top-rated quarterback when facing pressure. Tampa Bay must decide how and when to attack.
Edge: Chiefs
When the Chiefs run
Statistically, the Chiefs have a middle-of-the-road rushing attack, averaging 112.4 yards per game. But the Chiefs have outgained six of their last nine opponents on the ground. Darrel WIlliams rushed 26 times for 130 yards in the postseason games and don’t be surprised to see him get at least half of the snaps. Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned for the AFC Championship Game and scored his first playoff touchdown. The Bucs led the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 80.6 yards. The Chiefs had 87 in the first meeting but Mahomes passed for 462.
Edge: Buccaneers
When the Buccaneers pass
The Brady-led offense has been on fire since the loss to the Chiefs. Over their last six games, including three in the playoffs, they’ve averaged 35.7 points and 323 passing yards. The wide receiver set is superb with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Scott Miller. Brown has been listed on the Bucs’ injury report. But even not at full capacity, it’s a formidable group that becomes more so when tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, who caught a touchdown pass against the Packers, figure in. The Chiefs pass defense has been outstanding throughout the season and the playoffs. Brady was intercepted three times in Green Bay and the Chiefs picked him off twice in Week 12.
Edge: Buccaneers
When Buccaneers run
Ronald Jones II is capable of big games, and Leonard Fournette can pack a punch. The duo combined for 13 touchdowns. But the ground game is not Tampa Bay’s strength. They rank 28th, averaging 94.9 yards per game. The Chiefs have gotten solid play against the run from tackle Derrick Nnadi and linebacker Anthony Hitchens. If the game comes down to a final, clock controlling drive, the Chiefs may have the advantage.
Edge: Chiefs
Special teams/coaching/intangibles
Neither team had a great season on special teams. In Rick Gosselin’s overall special teams rankings for 2020, the Chiefs finished 19th, the Buccaneers 22nd. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been inconsistent on extra points but solid on field goals (25 of 27). Rookie Tommy Townsend has punted only once in the playoffs. Will the Bucs come after him? Ex-Chiefs Ryan Succop has had a good year for the Bucs (28 of 31 field goals).
Andy Reid has reached his third Super Bowl. This is Bruce Arians’ first. But Arians has pushed all the right buttons in the playoffs, winning three straight road games. Tampa Bay has the home..
Tampa Bay becomes the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. The Chiefs are the first to travel the day before the game, making it feel like a true road game. OK by the Chiefs. They went 8-0 as a visitor, including a victory at Tampa Bay this season.
Edge: Chiefs
This story was originally published February 2, 2021 at 5:00 AM.