Five bold predictions and a March projection for the Missouri Tigers’ basketball season
Predicting the future is difficult when it comes to Cuonzo Martin’s 2018-19 Missouri men’s basketball team. The season-ending injury to Jontay Porter leaves the Tigers searching to replace his scoring, passing and rebounding going into Tuesday’s season opener against Central Arkansas.
The team still returns sophomore Jeremiah Tilmon, senior Kevin Puryear, a Blue Springs South graduate, and adds Illinois transfer Mark Smith to go with freshmen Torrence Watson and Javon Pickett.
Missouri has an early test in its nonconference schedule with a trip to Iowa State on Friday and also faces the likes of Xavier, Temple and Central Florida before the annual Braggin’ Rights game against Illinois. The Southeastern Conference is loaded this season and will make it hard for Missouri to escape conference play with a .500 record.
Here are five bold predictions for the upcoming season.
Five bold predictions
Missouri will flirt with 20 wins: Last season was a first for Martin in terms of record — he has never had 20 wins during his first season with a program. Martin has also never won fewer than 20 games in his second season at any of his previous stops. While it will be an uphill battle to get to 20 wins, Martin proved last season that Missouri can get over the loss of its top player ... but this is a younger and inexperienced group.
Jeremiah Tilmon will average around 15 and 9: That’s what he should be averaging in points and rebounds if he can stay out of foul trouble — and it’s paramount he does given the absence of Porter. The 6-foot-11 center has added some range to his game and is an athletic finisher around the rim. When he stays on the floor for long stretches, he’s able to pile up rebounds. His game should take a major step forward.
Torrence Watson and Javon Pickett will be on the SEC all-freshman team: Watson has a great shot because the offense will lean on him from the start, but Pickett has a chance to make a case, too. While Martin has lauded Pickett for his work ethic and ability to adjust, the 6-foot-4 wing did average around 26 points per game his senior year of high school. He can score on all three levels and is also a respectable defender. Don’t be surprised if he does enough to have a standout freshman season.
Dru Smith will NOT play: Martin said the case surrounding the Evansville transfer isn’t done yet, but it’s tough to see him receiving a waiver to play immediately. Smith is considered one of the team’s best players by the Tigers’ coaching staff and shot 48.2 percent from three last season. While Martin has had the magic touch lately, between Tray Jackson’s commitment and Mark Smith’s eligibility, even he can’t change this case.
Missouri will play in the postseason: It’s too early to say if Missouri is an NCAA Tournament team, but the odds are against them. The Tigers should at least play in the NIT, however, given their nonconference schedule. Just like last season, this team will find a play to play in some postseason tournament.
Regular-season projection: 18-14 overall, 8-10 SEC
The Tigers should be able to escape nonconference play in good shape, but SEC competition will be a bear. The league could get up to eight teams in the NCAA Tournament this season and Missouri can’t afford bad losses. It will likely have to steal a few games as well.
March projection: NIT
The Tigers will have all the chances to prove this projection wrong given the strength of the SEC and MU’s nonconference slate. Martin’s team has enough to get an NIT bid but not enough right now to suggest this team can get through to the Big Dance. Given the circumstances, an NIT bid would be good for the program. It would set the stage for a loaded team next season.
Alex Schiffer
Alex Schiffer covers University of Missouri athletics for The Star.
This story was originally published November 3, 2018 at 10:33 AM.