Kansas vs. K-State prediction: Who wins Sunflower Showdown between 2 hot hoops teams?
The No. 16-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play Kansas State in another edition of the Sunflower Showdown on Saturday.
KU beat Iowa State on Monday, while K-State beat Arizona State. The Jayhawks beat K-State in Lawrence in January.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game:
No. 16 Kansas vs. Kansas State
When/where: 1 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, Kan.
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 11-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 65
Betting line: Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Kansas State Strengths
Good defense: The Wildcats rank No. 66 in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.8). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 5 in the same metric.
Long ball lovers: KSU ranks No. 92 in three-point rate (35.3).
Sharing is caring: Kansas State ranks No. 15 in assist rate (61.5). Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 30.
Kansas State Weaknesses
Issues defending the long ball: Kansas State ranks No. 265 in opposing team 3-point percentage (35.4).
Free throw struggles: The Wildcats rank. 270 in free-throw shooting percentage (69.2)
Lack of bench trust: KSU ranks No. 313 in bench minutes (25.6%).
Kansas State Name to Know
6-foot-9 senior guard David N’Guessan (No. 1)
+ Quality scorer (12.6 PPG)
+ Good rebounder (7.0 RPG)
+ Block king (1.0 BPG)
- Bad free-throw shooter (shooting 59.5% at the line)
- Turnover prone (1.1 TPG)
- Not much of a passer (1.5 APG)
Game Prediction
Under coach Jerome Tang, the Wildcats have a way of making life difficult for KU in Manhattan. K-State has won the teams’ last two meetings there.
The Wildcats are on a four-game winning streak now, and this matchup with KU appears favorable. For KU, the key will be limiting KSU’s 3-point shooting, which has been red-hot during the Wildcats’ winning streak.
On top of that, KU needs to get out to a fast start. The Jayhawks don’t want to let the K-State faithful be a factor by giving up a big run to the home team.
KU’s the better squad and is coming off its best conference win of the season.
I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.
Kansas 75, Kansas State 70
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-4.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 18-4
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 13-9
KU Player to watch: KJ Adams
KU forward KJ Adams missed the Jayhawks’ last game against K-State. KU coach Bill Self noted how much the team missed his presence on the defensive end in the second half.
Adams hasn’t had the season anyone expected, but he’s an integral part of the Jayhawks’ postseason ambitions. Self has turned to a three-big rotation of Adams, Flory Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson recently.
Adams’ minutes have fluctuated depending on the matchup. Let’s see if he can have another strong game after playing well against Iowa State in the second half of that game.
