Kansas game prediction vs. Baylor: Can KU get its first road win in Waco since 2020?
The No. 11-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play Baylor on Saturday.
KU beat UCF on Tuesday, while Baylor lost to BYU.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 11 Kansas vs. Baylor
When/where: 3 p.m., Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 13-8
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 28
Betting line: Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Baylor Strengths
Elite offense: The Bears rank No. 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency (122.4). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 29 in the same metric.
Shott the 3s: Baylor ranks No. 61 in three-point shooting percentage (.37.1).
Crash the glass: Baylor ranks No. 21 in offensive rebounding percentage (36.6). Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 135.
Baylor Weaknesses
Defending the long ball: Baylor ranks No. 256 in opposing team 3-point percentage (36.3).
Don’t get to the line: The Bears rank 305 in free-throw rate (28.5).
Not a lot of continuity: Baylor ranks No. 237 in minutes of continuity (25.9%).
Baylor Name to Know
6-foot-7 senior forward Norchad Omier (No. 15)
+ Quality scorer (15.3 points per game)
+ Steals magnet (1.3 steals per game)
+ Elite rebounder (10.1 rebounds per game)
- Turnover prone (2.6 turnovers per game)
- Not the best passer (1.9 assists per game)
Game Prediction
KU hasn’t won in Waco since 2020.
Fortunately for the Jayhawks, though, this Bears squad has a couple of weaknesses that KU can exploit.
Baylor’s defense is lacking. The Bears struggle to defend and often send opponents to the foul line. If the Jayhawks can get off to a fast start and force Baylor to get into foul trouble — KU should win.
I like Kansas to win and cover the spread.
Kansas 74, Baylor 68
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 17-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 12-8
KU Player to watch: KJ Adams
Kansas forward KJ Adams returned to action vs. UCF. After a quiet first half, he played a pivotal role in helping the Jayhawks win the matchup.
Overall, Adams has had an up-and-down season. But he brings a lot to the table and can become more consistent starting at Baylor.
