KU basketball game prediction: Can Kansas upset No. 2 Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum?
The No. 9-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face No. 2 Iowa State on Wednesday.
KU beat Cincinnati on Saturday, while Iowa State last defeated Texas Tech.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 9 Kansas vs. No. 2 Iowa State
When/where: 6 p.m., Wednesday, Hilton Coliseum
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 14-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 4
Betting line: Iowa State is a 5.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Iowa State Strengths
Elite defense: The Cyclones rank No. 9 in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.2). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 4 in the same metric.
... and an elite offense: ISU ranks No. 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency (123.5), which measures the number of points scored per 100 possessions.
Handle with care: Iowa State ranks No. 14 in turnover percentage (14).
Iowa State Weaknesses
Could be better from 3: ISU ranks No. 113 in 3-point percentage (34.7%).
Nothing easy at the line: The Cyclones OK, but not great, at the free throw line, shooting 75%. That ranks No. 81 overall.
Don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers: ISU ranks No. 273 in 3-point rate (35.4).
Iowa State Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Curtis Jones (No. 5)
+ Quality scorer (17.9 PPG)
+ Good rebounder (3.9 rebounds per game)
+ Good shooter (shooting 39% on 3-pointers)
+ Doesn’t turn the ball over much (0.7 TPG)
+ Good free throw shooter (FT % of 83.7)
- Not an elite passer (2.8 APG)
Tale of the tape
Iowa State has a clear preference when scoring. The Cyclones mostly score their points inside the arc — as 3-pointers only account for 25.8% of their points distribution. That ranks No. 311 in the nation.
So, KU’s 2-point defense needs to be on point. It’s illustrated in the above highlight, where big man Dishon Jackson received the pass at the top of the key. After he surveyed the floor, he decided to back down his defender, spun and converted the layup.
For Jackson, 45.5% of his shots come at the rim and he’s shooting a perfect 100% in that spot, per Hoop-Math. Kansas can’t let him or other ISU big men get positioning, or it’ll be difficult to defend them.
For a player as physical as Jackson, there’s a good chance that KJ Adams guards him and will be tasked with bruising down low.
As a team, Iowa State ranks No. 15 nationally in 2-point percentage (58.6%), so limiting easy looks inside the arc is the key to springing the upset.
Game Prediction
This might be the most formidable opponent KU has faced all season. On top of that, playing at Hilton Coliseum is no joke.
The Cyclones are an elite team on both ends. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have an elite defense and a somewhat inconsistent offense.
For KU, the key is to get off to a hot start. If Kansas can build a lead and then rely on its defense — it’ll force an ISU squad that doesn’t take a lot of 3-pointers to change its shot diet.
Unfortunately, KU’s offense has struggled lately. Don’t expect it to find its footing vs. one of the best defenses in the nation.
I like Iowa State in this one.
Iowa State 75, Kansas 68
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Iowa State (-5.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 12-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-7
KU Player to Watch: KJ Adams
After a series of subpar games, Kansas forward KJ Adams was KU’s best player vs. the Bearcats. He had eight points, two assists and seven rebounds — including five offensive rebounds.
He helped the Jayhawks take complete control of the game. Let’s see if Adams can build upon that. His defense and rebounding will be key in ensuring KU emerges the victor.
