Quick Scout: KU-Eastern Washington prediction, plus boldest Hawk to Rock pick of year
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 3 seed Kansas vs. No. 14 seed Eastern Washington, 12:15 p.m., Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis
TV: TBS
Opponent’s record: 16-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 109
Point spread: Kansas by 10 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Interior scoring: Led by Big Sky player of the year Tanner Groves, Eastern Washington ranks third nationally in efficiency on post-up attempts, according to Synergy.
• Ball security: The Eagles do a great job of getting shot volume, ranking 55th nationally in offensive turnover percentage while improving that mark during conference play.
• Running: Eastern Washington loves to get out on fast breaks and is especially fond of shooting early threes; the team has made 39% of its outside shots in transition (over half its shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock are threes) while also posting the nation’s 30th-fastest offensive pace.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Creating havoc: Eastern Washington plays an extremely passive defensive style, ranking 300th in defensive turnover rate and 315th in steal percentage.
• Second-chance opportunities: This appears to be a stylistic decision from coach Shantay Legans, as the numbers suggest that the Eagles mostly abandon the offensive boards (except for their 5 man) in an effort to get back with transition defense.
• Athleticism: It doesn’t take much watching of film to see that Eastern Washington tries to win with skill over athletic ability; the team doesn’t have much rim protection inside and also has struggled in isolation settings offensively.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Tanner Groves (No. 35)
Plus: KenPom’s pick for Big Sky player of the year
Plus: Does excellent job getting position and is 94th percentile in efficiency during post-up situations
Plus: Elite defensive rebounder
Plus: Gets fouled often and is 78% shooter there
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Can’t ignore him on the three-point line, where he’s made 17 of 49
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “average” overall defender who struggles some when pulled out to the perimeter
Minus: Can be foul prone
Minus: Low block and steal rates reflect he’s a player that thrives more with strength and skill than athleticism
PREDICTION
The Quick Scout prediction is (still) 0 for its last 5 against the spread, so consider that carefully first when deciding to go with or against this pick.
The biggest unknown for KU, obviously, is the health status of David McCormack. He arrived in Indianapolis to join the team Friday after testing positive for COVID last week, but the big question will be how long he’ll be able to play considering both his conditioning and personal recovery from the virus.
KU could certainly use him defensively. Tanner Groves (his younger brother Jacob also plays for the Eagles) is a load inside, and McCormack’s size makes him a more natural fit to go against him because of his own stout body type.
On defense, the Jayhawks have been excellent lately but should be tested Saturday. The Eagles don’t hesitate to put up threes, and they also will fire quickly, which will force KU’s guards to be especially locked in after every Eastern Washington defensive rebound.
KU has struggled offensively lately, but — being honest — Eastern Washington only offers so much resistance on that end. Legans does the best with his team’s defensive limitations, as the Eagles do a great job of attempting to make opponents shoot contested jumpers. Still, Eastern Washington forces almost no turnovers and also can be exposed in ball-screen situations and by drivers who are aggressive off the dribble.
If you’ve watched KU this season, though ... you know that latter part isn’t a strength of this year’s team. There’s no Devon Dotson or Sherron Collins who can go get a bucket easily, meaning the Jayhawks’ best bet will be to avoid unnecessary turnovers while believing that driving bad closeouts and crashing the offensive glass will be enough to secure a large number of shot attempts in the paint.
I said on Selection Sunday this was a good matchup for KU simply because Eastern Washington was not one of the top No. 14 seeds according to advanced metrics. Even with KU’s roster uncertainty, the Jayhawks have remained double-digit favorites, which has seemed to back up that point.
Having said that ... I think Eastern Washington keeps this close-ish. KU has struggled before against defenses that limit assists (like Texas) when it hasn’t gone 5 guards, and Eastern Washington’s combination of interior presence and three-point ability makes me think it could create enough offense to hang in there.
Even if KU wins in the end.
Kansas 74, Eastern Washington 67
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Eastern Washington
HAWK TO ROCK
It’s the postseason, so time to go bold. I wrote 1,100 words Friday about why Tyon Grant-Foster, who hasn’t gotten off the bench in KU’s last five contests, could play a huge role against Eastern Washington, so let’s follow through and say he does that. Grant-Foster’s athleticism should play up against the Eagles, and his ability to drive (and find others for spot-up shots) also could be vital, especially if KU struggles to score early. Let’s shoot for the moon here and say Grant-Foster — he has five points in his last 11 games combined — scores double figures Saturday.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma 74, Kansas 71 (Actual: KU 69-62) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-17
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-104-3
This story was originally published March 20, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
