Were KU Jayhawks lucky or unlucky with their NCAA Tournament draw? Here’s the answer
There are two distinct ways to rank college basketball teams this time of year: by résumé, or by overall quality.
The former is what is primarily used to seed the NCAA Tournament bracket. Kansas, for instance, earned itself an No. 3 seed in part because of an ability to win close games, going 6-2 in contests decided by five or less while boosting its “good” win total.
Overall quality of team, however, is best determined using predictive metrics like those produced by Ken Pomeroy. These rankings look at every possession over the course of a season, which gives a more complete picture when trying to gauge which teams are “best” overall.
These two ways of looking at teams often have disagreements. That especially occurs when teams — like KU — win close games while losing a few blowouts, as the win-loss record sometimes will mask the fact that over every possession, that squad might not have been as strong as it appeared.
It’s all a lead-up to say: When looking at potential opponents in KU’s bracket ... the Jayhawks want to face the ones lowest in the “quality of team” rankings. These numbers match up almost exactly with the betting lines in Las Vegas, so they’re as close to a true representation of “best” teams that we have available as humans, especially when trying to predict whether KU will have a decent shot or not of knocking off a particular foe.
With that in mind, here’s a look at KU’s potential path to a Final Four in 2021, along with some thoughts on whether the Jayhawks received a lucky or unlucky draw each round.
KU’s first round opponent: 14 seed Eastern Washington.
Lucky or unlucky draw? Lucky.
This is basically the only spot for KU to feel good about ... though maybe that’s where you’d want good fortune, as it’s the only opponent you know 100% you’re going to play.
Eastern Washington is ranked 110th in Pomeroy’s rankings, which is significantly behind a pair of other 14 seeds in Colgate (84) and Abilene Christian (86).
Expect the Jayhawks to be about 10-point favorites over the Eagles, which means the odds of a one-and-done tournament for KU won’t be that great.
KU’s potential Round of 32 opponent (if seeds hold): 6 seed USC
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky.
KU fans should be rooting hard for an 11-seed upset, whether that’s Drake or Wichita State potentially taking down USC in the first round.
That’s because the Trojans are woefully under-seeded compared to their predictive metrics, ranking 14th in KenPom thanks, in part, to the contributions of 7-foot freshman center Evan Mobley, who should earn All-America honors.
Much like the 2018-19 season, if the seeds hold, KU will be an underdog in its Round of 32 matchup. The Trojans, according to the numbers, would stand to be about a one-point Vegas favorite over the Jayhawks.
KU’s potential Sweet 16 opponent (if seeds hold): 2 seed Iowa
Lucky or unlucky draw? Neutral.
This was a strange year in that almost all the 2 seeds were the exact same quality. Iowa, Houston, Ohio State and Alabama all rank 5-8 in Pomeroy’s rankings, with Iowa and Houston on a tier above the other two.
The bottom line: A Sweet 16 matchup for KU was going to be tough regardless, but none of the 3 seeds was going to get it easy here. You can say “slightly unlucky” for KU if you want, but for the most part, the Jayhawks weren’t going to get a team at this point undeserving of the 2 line.
KU’s potential Elite Eight opponent (if seeds hold): 1 seed Gonzaga
Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky.
Gonzaga is a best-in-a-decade-type team according to Pomeroy’s numbers, so basically the only hope for KU with its 1 seed would be to avoid the Bulldogs.
The Jayhawks didn’t do it.
If KU made it to the Elite Eight and faced Gonzaga ... well, that would be a great season no matter what happened in that contest. It also would be a rematch of the season-opener, and would put KU in the completely unfamiliar position of being the nation’s underdog against the WCC giant.
It still would be a longshot of longshots. Advanced numbers currently project the ‘Zags would likely be a 10-plus-point favorite over KU, which is not the spot you’d like to be when attempting to make the Final Four.
Overall
If an “A” grade was the most favorable draw and “F” was the least, I’d grade KU’s path at a “D.” The Jayhawks should be able to make it past the first round — they didn’t get stuck with any crazy under-seeded team there — but the rest will be difficult. USC potentially in Round 2 was unfortunate, and anyone dreaming of KU as a sleeper Final Four pick will have to figure out a scenario where Gonzaga loses first.
KU coach Bill Self has talked often in recent months about his team still having the potential for a “Storybook Ending.”
One thing is for sure: If this KU team makes it out of this region to advance to the national semifinals ... the journey there will have certainly lived up to Self’s words.
