KU Jayhawks’ most fascinating player in opener? Someone who hasn’t played in 5 games

This is not an official prediction, just to be clear.

Having said that ... I can’t help but think the following sentence is at least possible as Kansas prepares to face Eastern Washington in the first round of the men’s NCAA Tournament on Saturday in Indianapolis:

Someone who hasn’t played a minute for KU in the last five games could lead the team in shot attempts.

It seems crazy. Heck, I just chuckled as I typed it.

Yet I still think the odds of that are ... 10%? Maybe higher?

Welcome to the craziness of the 2021 NCAA Tournament for KU men’s basketball and coach Bill Self, who will both have their adaptability tested in a win-or-go-home game against the Eagles.

The player I’m speaking of is Tyon Grant-Foster, and in a minute, we’ll just dip our toe in some advanced stats to explain why he could be so valuable for the Jayhawks on Saturday (12:15 p.m. on TBS).

But first, a brief review of his standing at the moment. Grant-Foster, who signed with KU after being ranked one of the top junior college players in the nation, has struggled to even stay in the rotation. His best game was Dec. 5 against North Dakota State where he had clutch baskets late and also a crucial block, but since then, he’s mostly just gotten mop-up duty while also battling a minor ankle injury in early February.

Here are Grant-Foster’s minutes in KU’s last 10 games: 0, 3, 5, 4, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. The last time he stepped on the court for the Jayhawks was Feb. 17 at Kansas State.

His role, though, is about to change. With Jalen Wilson and Tristan Enaruna out because of positive COVID-19 tests, and center David McCormack’s status in question following his own bout with the virus, KU likely will need Grant-Foster.

“Well I know he’s going to play, at least we certainly think so,” Self said Wednesday. “And he’ll be one of our four perimeter players. We’re extremely, extremely small, as you guys know, and how much we can utilize David remains to be seen, just because of how he feels and his timing and all those things.”

This is where it gets tricky for KU, both with roster construction and matchup.

The advanced stat I’d like to introduce is usage percentage. It’s basically a shorthand way of indicating how big of an offensive role a player takes when he’s on the floor, either by shooting a field goal, getting to the free throw line or turning it over.

Twenty percent is average for usage percentage, and with this stat, we can see at a glance what kind of an offensive load each player takes on when he’s in the game.

An example: Here are the usage percentages for KU’s three players who have tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks: McCormack, Wilson and Enaruna.

McCormack, whose availability is in question, plays a huge role on KU’s offense, and this makes sense if you’ve watched him play. The big man is not shy about shooting it, and his usage rate ranks among the top of all Big 12 players and even above go-to guys like Oklahoma State guard and Big 12 player of the year Cade Cunningham.

Wilson also pulls more than his fair share of the offensive weight. This follows logic as well; he’s not shy about shooting threes or attacking off the bounce, which resulted in him leading the team in free throw attempts.

Enaruna, meanwhile, is right around average in usage rate. Altogether, this means KU will be missing out on two guys who have not been passive offensively, with a third in McCormack who could have limited minutes because of his particular situation.

So where does that leave KU? Here’s how the rest of KU’s players rank in usage percentage:

This is where it gets interesting. If McCormack is limited or does not go, only one Jayhawk has taken on an above-average scoring load for the season when he’s been in ... and that’s Grant-Foster. This seems reasonable considering the circumstances; he was asked to carry his juco team offensively last season, and previous basketball studies have shown it’s difficult for a player to change his offensive personality too much from season to season. For the most part, you simply are who you are when it comes to offensive mind-set.

Others on this list shouldn’t be surprising either. Agbaji and Braun are both excellent efficiency-wise but are more spot-up shooters than penetrators, which limits their ability to be ultra-aggressive. Marcus Garrett has settled in as a secondary scoring option, while Mitch Lightfoot and Bryce Thompson also haven’t gone overboard offensively when given playing time with other talented guys.

Here’s a needed caveat before going further: Just because Grant-Foster is comfortable shooting a lot doesn’t mean he should. In truth, he’s been one of the least-efficient Jayhawks with his possessions, mixing poor three-point shooting with a turnover rate that’s a touch too high.

However, all that is only based off a sample size of 166 minutes. And here’s the real danger for KU: If enough rotation guys are hesitant to shoot and just keep passing it back and forth to each other, someone has to try to create a shot attempt, which will be better than a turnover or shot-clock violation on any possession.

This particular clash also could play to Grant-Foster’s skill-set. Eastern Washington doesn’t appear to be the most athletic team, while also forcing opponents to score a high percentage of unassisted baskets.

Who could potentially drive their way to points on Saturday? Maybe Garrett, and perhaps Thompson as well. But Grant-Foster — more than both of them — should have a physicality mismatch if and when he chooses to assert himself on the offensive end.

Game flow should matter too. If, for instance, KU gets up 25-10 early, it’ll be much easier for Self to play Garrett and Harris together, giving up some scoring while believing that his team’s improved defense with that duo in together should be enough to protect a big lead.

If KU gets down, though? And guys are hesitant to shoot? Grant-Foster certainly could be an important piece, stepping into the type of role he probably envisioned when he first joined the Jayhawks last summer.

So again, I’m not predicting this. But I’m not saying it’s not going to happen either.

There’s at least a path to Grant-Foster leading KU in both shot attempts — and maybe even scoring(?) — though he hasn’t played for the Jayhawks in more than a calendar month.

That would certainly be March Madness for the Jayhawks ... though worth it all the same if it helped land them in the second round.

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.