Quick Scout: Why Allen Fieldhouse could hurt two Texas Tech strengths vs. KU Jayhawks
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 15 Texas Tech at No. 23 Kansas, 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20
Point spread: Kansas by 2 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rim protection: Texas Tech, with its strong help defense, has had opponents shoot just 26% of their field-goal attempts at the rim — the sixth-best defensive mark nationally.
• Creating havoc: The Red Raiders are fifth in defensive turnover rate, while especially specializing in non-steal turnovers like taking charges.
• Free throws: Texas Tech does an excellent job of playing with physicality while drawing fouls, getting to the line at the 13th-highest rate nationally while making 72% of their freebies.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Fouling: Texas Tech is last in Big 12 play in defensive free-throw rate, a weakness that came into play during its last home game when it surrendered 39 free throws to West Virginia.
• Three-point shooting: The Red Raiders are right at NCAA average when it comes to three-point accuracy, but that number is a bit misleading, as the team ranks 282nd in three-point rate; in other words, Texas Tech is extremely choosy with the threes it takes.
• Defensive rebounding: Coach Chris Beard’s teams have historically only been average on the defensive glass, with part of this coming from a stylistic choice, as he often prefers to play switchable, five-guard-type lineups.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Mac McClung (No. 0)
Plus: Team’s unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: Overall efficient offensive player considering his large role
Plus: Does excellent job getting defenders off-balance to draw fouls and is 81% free-throw shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Outstanding finisher in transition
Minus: Three-point accuracy is only around NCAA average
Minus: Struggles to score at the rim in half-court settings
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “below average” overall defender
PREDICTION
These two teams both could be nice sleeper picks in next month’s NCAA Tournament if you trust in the advanced numbers at ShotQuality.com.
That site has Texas Tech ranked ninth and KU 11th based on its shot-quality numbers thus far, with both teams experiencing some unluckiness when it comes to three-point variance defensively. That’s especially been the case for the Red Raiders, who have watched on as conference opponents have made 41(!)% of their threes in 11 contests ... a number that’s all but certain to come down eventually.
There are still reasons to be wary about Texas Tech covering in this spot. One is that the team has had an 11-day layoff because of weather-related issues, which is probably a longer pause than any coach would prefer. The Red Raiders also rely quite a bit on free throws for their offense, and even at reduced capacity, Allen Fieldhouse is not a place where that advantage often plays up for road teams.
It’s still tough to score on Texas Tech, though, and while three-point shooting can swing in a one-game sample, it’s difficult to predict KU going too crazy from the outside after posting just one better-than-35%-from-three effort in its last eight contests.
The turnovers worry me for KU as well. The Jayhawks were sloppy in their last game against Kansas State, and they also gave it away on 25% of their possessions in their first matchup against charge-happy Texas Tech. The Red Raiders won’t get all those calls Saturday in Lawrence, but even a couple are sure to get in the minds of KU’s drivers, who already have tended to be timid as a whole.
In a normal year, this is probably one where I’d think the capacity crowd could lift KU and Coach Bill Self to one of his specialty close-game wins at home. Without that typical luxury, though ... I actually like the Red Raiders for the mini-upset, thinking that turnover margin will be the game’s deciding factor.
Texas Tech 70, Kansas 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas Tech
HAWK TO ROCK
This spot needs a player with a low turnover percentage who also can make some threes. The best fit is Ochai Agbaji, who is a better outside shooter than what he’s shown lately. Look for him to lead KU in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, Kansas State 57 (Actual: KU 59-41) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-12
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-99-3
