This Jayhawks offense is now worst in Bill Self era. Here’s a choice KU needs to make

The good news for Kansas following a 59-41 road victory over Kansas State is that there’s no doubt the Jayhawks have bought into their coach’s message.

Bill Self spoke a few weeks ago about wanting his guys to have a defense-first mentality, and they certainly have embraced that. K-State missed a whole lot of open threes Wednesday, but regardless ... KU’s hounding of guards Nijel Pack and Mike McGuirl was commendable either way and made for an effort that would’ve been impressive even if the Wildcats had made a few more from the outside.

The problem for KU, though, is that it made an awful K-State defense look pretty good — and in the process fell to depths never before seen in Self’s 18-year tenure with the Jayhawks.

KU’s ugly showing there dropped it all the way to 58th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency measure. For reference, the worst a KU team has ever finished a season under Self was 50th in 2005-06; no other squad has landed outside the top 30.

So while Self and his players should feel great about their defense — and also a four-game winning streak — reflecting on the harsh reality should be a consideration shortly after that.

The blunt truth is this: Even if KU’s defense remains elite, the team has little chance of a deep postseason run if the offense can’t play any better than this.

And the path forward seems like it should start with answering a philosophical question.

Before we get to that, let’s take a big-picture view: The reasons for KU’s offensive struggles are numerous. For one, the Jayhawks don’t have someone who can easily get their own basket off the dribble like a Sherron Collins or Devon Dotson. This isn’t a naturally gifted passing team, and the Jayhawks’ three-point shooting has been inconsistent enough to bring about some confidence issues there.

The stats aren’t great. KU ranks 179th in effective field goal percentage — only one previous Self team was worse than 100th, and even that one was 153rd — while also not cracking the top 130 in either two-point or three-point accuracy.

Knowing all this, it seems Self has two paths forward to make this offense better, though each would require a different focus.

• Option 1: Work like crazy to get this team the easy baskets that previous teams got;

• Option 2: Loosen shot-selection standards and go for a volume approach.

Here’s a truth about Self’s offenses over the years: They have turned it over more often than many other blue-blood programs while also gaining immense benefit by creating a large number of easy baskets.

Basically think of it like this: If KU ran three possessions and was able to get layups on two of them, it’s fine to turn it over once as well, whether that’s on a risky pass or an aggressive drive. As a whole, that’s still efficient offense, and accepting some downside with turnovers is a smart trade-off for any coach to make if the rewards that come from those remain high.

The issue with this year’s Jayhawks is that they’re not getting the easy baskets of years past ... while still turning it over at a too-high clip. In short, KU’s gambles aren’t providing the team with steady scoring, and instead, those miscues are just further holding down an offense that already is lacking in other areas.

So here comes the choice for Self.

Option 1 has a lot of upside potential, as Dean Oliver’s study of basketball’s four factors tells us that shooting is responsible for 40% of a team’s efficiency.

Moving up from 179th doesn’t seem like it would be too difficult, especially if KU was able to manufacture 2-3 more easy shots per game. This road would most likely bring an emphasis on film work and technique in practice, with Self working to have his players replicate the exact motions that created close attempts in the past.

One hesitation for doing this could be time restraints. At this point, KU’s players potentially are who they are strength-wise, and this late in the season, a team would be looking more at small tweaks as opposed to wholesale changes.

Still ... if any coach could get KU going here, you’d think it’d be Self. He’s built a hall-of-fame career offensively by creating shots at the rim, so perhaps the room for growth there is greater than appearances might seem.

Option 2, though, could be intriguing as well. Oliver’s study revealed that turnovers are responsible for about 25% of a team’s efficiency numbers, and history indicates this can be an area that’s greatly impacted by coaching emphasis.

Villanova’s Jay Wright, for example, has had top-100 marks in offensive turnover percentage each of the last seven seasons. Former Michigan coach John Beilein, in his final seven seasons, also was never worse than 17th in the stat while finishing in the top 10 five different times.

The overarching point: This can be controlled better than KU has recently. The Jayhawks are 113th in turnover percentage, while alternating their last seven games in spurts between “non-turnover” and “turnover” modes.

If he went this direction, Self’s thought process would be simple: Raise the offensive floor by giving the Jayhawks maximum opportunities to score.

There could be some side benefits as well. KU has done a good job on the offensive glass this season, and every shot (unlike a turnover) gives the team a chance to put up points in that way as well. Missed shots also lead to fewer transition opportunities for opponents compared to giveaways, so this approach might even tangentially help out KU’s defense too.

A final positive could be injecting shooting confidence into a team that might need it. Self has grumbled about his team’s shot selection at times this year, but an emphasis on “the main goal is a shot every possession” potentially would allow guys like David McCormack, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun to fire up shots with less hesitation, especially from three-point range even if the first few don’t fall on any given night.

Self honestly could find viable success with either option. Neither outcome would be shocking if it happened, nor would it require something completely unforeseen to come together.

KU likely needs to move confidently one way or the other, though. Either make the offense more complex while seeking out those valuable layups and dunks, or make it simpler while taking the available early shot attempts in an effort to avoid mistakes.

Playing to both has left this offense without a clear identity, which means it’s a matter worth addressing.

Especially for a team that’s already seen success internalizing its coach’s directives.

This story was originally published February 18, 2021 at 5:00 AM.

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.