Quick Scout: What recent research tells us about rematch games like KU-Iowa State
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Kansas at Iowa State, 2 p.m., Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
TV: ABC
Opponent’s record: 2-13
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 138
Point spread: Kansas by 12.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
Three-point defense
• Was it a strength against KU on Thursday? No. Thirty-six percent of KU’s field-goal attempts were threes — Iowa State has only allowed 33% for the season — and unfortunately for the Cyclones, the Jayhawks were hot late while making 12 of 26 outside shots. In general, Iowa State could improve here with better communication on switches along with more awareness from big man Solomon Young when he’s asked to guard shooters like Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun on the perimeter.
Creating havoc
• Was it a strength against KU on Thursday? No way. Iowa State’s players seemed a bit fatigued in Lawrence while posting a 9.4% defensive turnover rate — the team’s lowest mark of the season.
Three-point shooting
• Was it a strength against KU on Thursday? Definitely not. Iowa State created nine “open” three-point attempts according to Synergy’s logs, but made just two of those shots. Overall, the Cyclones were just 5 for 25 from three after making 43% of their perimeter attempts in their previous three games combined.
3 WEAKNESSES
Transition defense
• Was it a weakness against KU on Thursday? Mostly yes. Though KU’s 17 fastbreak points don’t seem like a large amount ... that actually was the Jayhawks’ second-highest total in that category all season.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends
• Was it a weakness against KU on Thursday? Yes. KU grabbed 32% of its missed shots while picking up 17 second-chance points. Iowa State, meanwhile, wasn’t as productive on the O-boards itself while getting 21% of its misses back with two second-chance points.
Rim protection
• Was it a weakness against KU on Thursday? Absolutely. KU made 57% of its twos on Thursday — its best accuracy there in eight games — and also registered a season-high 50 points in the paint.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Solomon Young (No. 33)
Plus: Team’s most efficient option offensively
Plus: Has strong shooting numbers in post-up settings
Plus: Good offensive rebounder
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: 74% career free-throw shooter
Minus: Non-physical player offensively; barely ever gets to free-throw line
Minus: Poor defensive rebounder for his size
Minus: Can struggle to get out to perimeter shooters defensively
PREDICTION
College basketball analyst Jordan Sperber did some excellent research on teams playing back-to-back games this season, and while his focus were on contests played in consecutive days, it’s at least worth considering his findings for KU-Iowa State, which has a one-day break in between.
Sperber’s overall working theory after examining these instances was that “back-to-backs seem to be leading to some combination of slower, sloppier, and more physical play during the second leg.” And while bettors seemed to overvalue the first result, that wasn’t necessarily profitable, especially when it came to the over-under total.
It appears there’s some recency bias going on with this line as well. Both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s projections like KU by about 10, the Vegas line remains at 12, with the public perhaps reacting strongly to the Jayhawks’ blowout win Thursday.
Here’s my one concern for Iowa State: Sperber’s study found an increase in free-throw rate in the second games — perhaps because of tired legs — and that’s not an area the Cyclones can take advantage of particularly well. Iowa State ranks near the bottom nationally in offensive free-throw rate, so even at home, expecting the team to get to even 20 free throws might be asking a bit much, even if KU’s players are reaching on defense more than before.
I still like a low-scoring, Iowa State cover in this game. Single head-to-head results are not to be seen as gospel, and given that the three-point shooting Thursday was hot for KU and cold for Iowa State — a stat that can literally change overnight — it seems like a decent bet that the final deficit remains within single digits.
Kansas 72, Iowa State 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Iowa State
HAWK TO ROCK
KU’s offense shouldn’t come as easy in Ames, meaning David McCormack will likely be asked to shoulder a large part of the scoring load against a not-so-imposing Iowa State front line. Foul trouble was the only thing that kept McCormack from a huge offensive game Thursday, and if he does better in that area Saturday, he’s the odds-on bet to be KU’s leading scorer.
Last game prediction: Kansas 83, Iowa State 62 (Actual: KU 97-64) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 9-11
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 128-98-3
