How an NBA mentality helped the KU Jayhawks to their blowout win against Iowa State
Kansas had the mindset of an NBA team on Thursday night, and that’s a compliment following the Jayhawks’ 97-64 home victory over Iowa State.
It began with the game’s second possession. Ochai Agbaji — hesitant to fire away at times this year — hoisted up a semi-guarded three. It missed. The Jayhawks would miss their next five outside shots as well.
There were times in the not-so-distant KU past when that would result in a red-light night. “Shots weren’t falling” would be the explanation afterward, so the Jayhawks would force things inside, looking to overcome three-point woes by cramming everything as close to the basket as possible.
That, though, is not how NBA teams play, with the math not adding up. Continuing to get your best three-point shooters attempts — especially if they’re as efficient as Agbaji and Christian Braun from deep — remains high on the priority list, no matter if the first few go in or not.
Variance happens with outside shooting; that’s just probability. A coin flip coming up heads six times in a row does not mean we should expect the seventh to be heads any more than 50% ... despite any tricks your mind might be trying to play on you in the moment.
Understanding the law of averages here — and embracing it — can be part of creating an edge offensively. The realization that the most efficient shots are the most efficient shots — whether they’re going in during a small-sample stretch or not — is critical for a process-over-results-type worldview that should eventually lead to the most success in the long run.
What happened Thursday, then, was a big deal for KU. Agbaji and Braun acted like they were the Jayhawks’ best chance at offensive efficiency ... which is a good thing, because the numbers would reflect that statement being correct.
Synergy Sports Technology’s logs give some statistical backing. Before Thursday, an Agbaji three-point attempt had been worth an impressive 1.25 points per possession, and that’s before any possibility of an offensive rebound. A Braun three-point attempt was just behind at 1.07 PPP, with both Agbaji and Braun also rating as the Jayhawks’ most efficient offensive players overall.
Here’s the reality: If Agbaji and Braun aren’t hunting threes each game, they’re actually doing their team a disservice.
And a short sequence in the second half provided a good example as to why.
Braun, off a dribble handoff, saw some daylight and attempted a long three. Though the shot missed, Braun was fouled, putting him on the line while making Iowa State’s defenders realize they needed to extend their coverage on him to 25 feet or more. (It’s also worth noting that some previous data has shown long threes in college basketball remain efficient shots and are probably underutilized as a whole.)
That attempt, in part, put an immense vertical strain on Iowa State’s defense two minutes later. When Braun received a perimeter pass from teammate Jalen Wilson, Iowa State guard Jaden Walker closed out hard, knowing he couldn’t give KU’s guard any opening to shoot.
That made things easy for Braun. Even without a shot fake, he immediately drove around Walker, making it all the way to the rim for an uncontested layup on the opposite side of the basket; the threat of a three had helped open up the lane for a two.
The quick-trigger threes had other positive effects Thursday as well. KU, after missing its first six from the outside, put through 8 of the next 11. The Jayhawks finished 12 of 26 from three, while also giving a glimpse of their offensive ceiling on any night when the shots do go down.
There was more to it than that, though. KU’s liberal shot selection also reduced turnovers, with the Jayhawks giving it away just seven times in 74 possessions. The shoot-it-before-you-give-it-away style also played a role in limiting Iowa State’s transition scoring, with the Cyclones held to just five steals and eight fastbreak points.
In the end, Agbaji made 5 of 10 threes, while Braun was 3 for 8. Their point-per-possession averages for those tries ended up about how we’d have expected, even if most of that production came late.
Most of KU’s offensive success Thursday came because those guys weren’t afraid to keep shooting. KU’s 1.31 points per possession was the third-best mark against Iowa State’s defense this season while also providing a blueprint for potential better days ahead.
It all comes down to trust and confidence. For too long, Agbaji and Braun haven’t taken on the offensive role needed from them, passing up potential shots to the detriment of their team.
Three-pointers aren’t always going to fall, and no team can have a guarantee that those will be made early in a game.
All you can do is trust the math on these things.
While also keeping an NBA mindset ... even when that’s tough to do.
This story was originally published February 12, 2021 at 12:09 AM.
