Quick Scout: Why this KU Jayhawks-Baylor basketball betting line is somewhat historic
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: No. 9 Kansas at No. 2 Baylor, 8 p.m., Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 12-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 2
Point spread: Baylor by 9.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Three-point shooting: Baylor, which takes an above-average number of three-point attempts, has hit 42% of those tries.
▪ Creating havoc: The Bears lead the Big 12 in both defensive turnover rate and steal rate during conference play, while also posting top-nine numbers nationally in both those categories for the entire season as well.
▪ Offensive rebounding: This is a Scott Drew tradition; Baylor has ranked top-nine nationally in O-board percentage each of the last seven years and currently sits at eighth this season.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Free throws (offensively): Baylor gets to the line less than an average team and also has struggled in Big 12 play with making those freebies (65%).
▪ Transition defense: With Baylor crashing the offensive glass so hard, opponents can often find opportunities on fast breaks; the Bears aren’t great at preventing those transition attempts, and the team’s defense ranks 142nd in adjusted shooting percentage allowed in those settings.
▪ Defensive rebounding: Baylor is slightly below NCAA average on the defensive glass, though that isn’t as much of an issue when Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is on the floor, as he’s 94th nationally in individual D-board percentage.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Jared Butler (No. 12)
Plus: AP Preseason All-America selection
Plus: Ranks third in KenPom’s national player of the year ranking
Plus: Accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Outstanding passer
Plus: Elite at swiping away steals defensively
Plus: Strong finisher at the rim, especially in transition
Minus: Doesn’t get to the free throw line as often as you’d expect
Minus: Turns it over a fair amount
PREDICTION
This Vegas line is a bit historic.
Coach Bill Self has never been greater than a 7 1/2-point underdog during his 623 games with KU, according to the database at OddsShark.
That will change Monday, as KU being a nine-point ’dog is the greatest spread the program has faced since the 2000 NCAA Tournament when Duke was an 11-point favorite over the Jayhawks.
Let’s be clear: That number is more about Baylor than it is KU. The Bears are spectacular on both ends and have been efficiency monsters so far, winning 11 of their 12 games by double digits.
KU received a couple extra rest days following Saturday’s postponement against Iowa State, but this is still a tough time to play this particular game with the Jayhawks going through a bit of an identity crisis following their previous road loss to Oklahoma State.
Will the offense run through David McCormack, or Jalen Wilson? And how much faith should the team have in its man defense that was shredded by ball screens against Oklahoma State when Baylor will put even more pressure on KU with those same actions?
The Jayhawks don’t appear to have an edge in many areas, but the offensive glass could be one. It’ll be important for KU to simply get shots up before potentially turning it over, as some of its best scoring could simply be getting heaves to the rim with the hope that guys like McCormack, Wilson and Ochai Agbaji go get it from there.
It’s hard to feel great about KU’s offense heading into this one, though, especially with the team lacking true ball-handlers with Bryce Thompson out (broken finger) and Dajuan Harris struggling to get minutes lately. That kind of weakness could be potentially exposed further by Baylor, which continuously hounds opponents defensively.
KU also has struggled with defensive rotations lately, which led Oklahoma State (and others) to some wide-open three-point shots. If that continues against the Bears, I could see this one getting ugly.
Nine is a lot of points to cover, especially against a Self-coached team. I see the Bears being able to clear it, though, if their perimeter shots go down like they have previously.
Baylor 82, Kansas 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Baylor
HAWK TO ROCK
Baylor doesn’t have many shortcomings, but it does labor some against rim-protectors and also on the defensive glass. Though David McCormack could struggle to be efficient against the nation’s top-ranked KenPom defense, there’s still a decent path to him having a well-rounded stat line when it comes to points, rebounds and also blocked shots.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma State 73, Kansas 70 (Actual: OSU 75-70) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 5-7
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 124-94-3
This story was originally published January 18, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
