Why KU basketball — just this year — should shift its focus away from a Big 12 title
It’s mid-January, and Kansas men’s basketball is in a position where it has never been under coach Bill Self at this point in a season:
Almost completely out of the Big 12 race.
That’s the reality for KU following Tuesday’s 75-70 road loss to Oklahoma State. You obviously never say never with Self, but the truth can’t be ignored any longer.
The Jayhawks’ odds just aren’t that good.
KU has a pair of early Big 12 losses in a season where there are two other juggernauts at the top. The Jayhawks have already lost at home to Texas and have yet to face Baylor, with the Bears seemingly in a tier by themselves.
Even Self took time for reflection late Tuesday.
“We always have a goal each year to win the league, and that goal’s not vanished,” Self said, “but certainly, it’s getting to the point where there’s less than zero margin for error moving forward.”
Ever played roulette? KU’s odds of sharing the league crown right now are about as good as guessing where the bouncing ball will land on your very first try.
That’d be roughly 3%, according to Bart Torvik’s projections, which actually seems about in line with what we’ve seen from KU so far.
Here’s the good news: This doesn’t have to define the Jayhawks’ season.
“The Streak” ended in 2019, and while league titles are nice to aim for, they’re not a prerequisite for making a postseason run. Every season, there are teams that find their mojo late, unlocking a player’s talent or coming up with a new defensive wrinkle to push themselves in March above what they were in January.
Self, for so much of his KU career, has had great success focusing on the micro: “How can I get my KU team to win this game, in the moment?”
This squad needs something different, given the current circumstances. The Jayhawks should worry less about the wins and losses and more on the macro: “How can this team improve its ceiling for the most important games in March?”
Only an absolute collapse would keep KU out of the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks still have been one of the nation’s most accomplished teams this season — for example they rank seventh in “Wins Above Bubble,” one of the top résumé measures — so they’ve cleared extra runway to get this thing to a better place.
And while a higher seed would nice, it certainly won’t earn much extra benefit this season, especially when all March Madness games are set for Indianapolis anyway.
Self’s biggest concerns after Tuesday involved an area you might expect: defense.
“I’m not leaving out of here disappointed or mad or anything because we lost to an Oklahoma State team; I’m leaving out of here (disappointed) because of the reasons why we lost to an Oklahoma State team,” Self said. “And that’s on me more than the players. I’ve got to get the guys to where we think a little tougher, because certainly pride and toughness is a big part of stopping people, and we’ve got to get better at that. I’ve got to demand more.”
It’s difficult to not get swept up in the moment. KU was lit up in transition against Oklahoma State, an issue that runs counter to Self’s annual “No easy baskets” rallying cry.
Take a step back, though, and this team seems to have other more pressing issues to fix, especially offensively. What should KU’s identity be there? Can Self scheme up a way to get more out of Marcus Garrett, who doesn’t seem to have the same burst as past seasons? The Jayhawks also ran more 5-guard lineups earlier in the season with success ... could they increase the frequency of those to improve speed and athleticism while also turning up the pressure defensively?
The 5,000-foot view is what’s important here, and at this point, KU can be accurately labeled as “good” but not “great.”
One only needed to look to the pregame Vegas line to see that. KU was a 3 1/2-point favorite in the type of road contest that it would’ve had about a 7-point edge a season ago. The difference between a projected overall No. 1 seed and where KU is now — playing at a level of roughly the 15th-best team nationally — is those 3 1/2 points a game.
At times, this team reminds me both of KU’s 2018 and 2019 squads. With the first, Self decided to let his team bomb away from three, taking advantage of its small lineup while sacrificing defensively. That made the floor low, but the ceiling higher, which helped KU topple Duke in the Elite Eight on the way to a Final Four run.
The latter season was the opposite. KU searched for a personality it never seemed to find, with Udoka Azubuike’s injury and Lagerald Vick’s departure setting the team off course. The Jayhawks bowed out early in the NCAAs with a team that statistically ended as one of Self’s worst at KU.
This season could still go either way, which makes this a fascinating crossroads.
A normal year would have Self most worried about Iowa State on Saturday. These conditions, however, provide a rare opportunity, even if unwanted.
KU’s odds of winning the Big 12 are minuscule and not worth worrying about at this point, meaning the Jayhawks’ sole purpose should be toward becoming a more formidable team in March.
Self doesn’t need to concentrate his gaze on each step. Instead, he can raise his eyes to focus on the horizon.
KU can still trade “good” for “great,” even if the road to get there is uncertain.
The good news is the bad news in this particular season: Taking a few more losses to get there is an acceptable result.
This story was originally published January 13, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
