Quick Scout: Why two projections don’t agree on KU basketball ahead of Creighton game
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 8 Creighton at No. 5 Kansas, 4 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 3-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 15
Point spread: Kansas by 3 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Ball security: Creighton has turned it over on just 11% of its possessions so far — the third-best mark in the nation.
▪ Offensive spacing: The Bluejays are excellent at spreading the floor to pull defenders away from the basket before hitting cutters on rolls to the rim; they have made 78% of their shots at the basket and rarely have those attempts blocked.
▪ Foul avoidance: This has been a staple under coach Greg McDermott, whose Creighton teams have been top 50 in reducing opponent free throw rate for four years running.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Creating havoc: Creighton prefers position defense over a gambling style while typically ranking below average under McDermott when it comes to forcing turnovers.
▪ Offensive rebounding: The Bluejays have done an excellent job of reducing opponents’ transition opportunities, but to do that, they send most players back when a shot goes up, which naturally reduces second-chance tries.
▪ Creating contact: Creighton plays a mostly non-physical style offensively, ranking bottom 100 in free-throw creation each of the last four seasons.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Marcus Zegarowski (No. 11)
Plus: Received preseason All-America honorable mention by AP
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Outstanding passer who rarely turns it over
Plus: Was excellent scorer last season in transition, both at rim and on threes
Minus: Has only attempted three free throws in three games this season
PREDICTION
The two major projection systems see this game in slightly different ways ... based on their early thoughts about KU.
KenPom’s projection — his preseason priors are going to prop up KU some at this point because of the team’s success in previous seasons — has the Jayhawks winning by three. Bart Torvik’s projection, however — with data that puts extra weight on the fact KU has trailed throughout in three of its five contests — only likes the Jayhawks by one.
There’s also uncertainty about how much Allen Fieldhouse will help KU on Tuesday.
The Jayhawks are welcoming up to 2,500 fans, though that’s only about one-sixth capacity. Student attendance should be light, and the game tips at 4 p.m. on a weekday, which could affect numbers and energy as well.
It’s a rough spot for KU. The Jayhawks didn’t get much of a break following a five-game-in-10-day stretch, and they’re facing a Bluejays team that had a few extra days to prepare.
KU desperately needs some practice time at this point so that it can add to its five-guard offensive playbook, but the schedule hasn’t allowed that. Meanwhile, Creighton has no such identity issues, knowing exactly how it wants to play with veteran guards Zegarowski and Eudora native Mitchell Ballock leading its Smallball lineup.
It would help the Jayhawks if they shoot better from three than Saturday. To be frank, though, Creighton also has undershot its potential early after finishing sixth nationally in three-point percentage a year ago.
In a normal season, this is a contest where 16,300 fans could definitely help will KU to a victory. As it stands ... I think winning this one will be a tough ask for the Jayhawks, given they don’t have a full 5-out arsenal yet and also might still be suffering from weary legs.
I’ll take Creighton for the win and cover.
Creighton 71, Kansas 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Creighton.
HAWK TO ROCK
Creighton has struggled some against lesser competition in defensive isolation settings, and that’s one area where Jalen Wilson has thrived, especially against bigger defenders. Look for Wilson to lead KU in scoring Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 86, North Dakota State 56 (Actual: Kansas 65-61) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 2-2
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 121-89-3
This story was originally published December 8, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
