KU almost lost as a 24-point favorite. Why it’s tough to know what to make of that
Ochai Agbaji was safe to admit this now.
It was just after Kansas’ 65-61 home victory over North Dakota State when the Kansas guard was asked about how the team felt Saturday at the end of a five-games-in-10-days stretch.
“Tired, I can say that,” Agbaji said. “The guys that were out there kind of felt worn out a little bit, but we had to keep pushing through.”
Hindsight being 20/20 ... KU probably messed up the schedule here. The Jayhawks stayed on the road eight consecutive days to start the season — flying from Lawrence to Fort Myers, Florida and Indianapolis — before getting home early Wednesday morning. KU then played Thursday night, and again on Saturday afternoon.
And Thursday’s Washburn game wasn’t supposed to happen originally. KU announced that one less than a month ago, perhaps as a safety net in case any other contests were canceled because of COVID-19 protocols.
The Jayhawks — to be frank — used up their legs Thursday and in the week before. That didn’t leave much for Saturday.
“I sensed some individuals were tired and played tired,” KU coach Bill Self said.
And that’s why coming to grand conclusions regarding this result is difficult, given the circumstances.
Start with this: Saturday was easily KU’s worst game of the season. North Dakota State entered 0-3, was hovering around 200th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and also was a 24-point underdog.
We can give some historic context here too. Team Rankings’ odds database goes back to 2003, and in that time, college basketball teams who were 24-point-or-more favorites played 1,401 games while winning 1,390 of them.
It means KU — down seven in the second half and by three with 3 minutes, 57 seconds left — was in serious danger of becoming a 0.8% anomaly ... before it rallied in the final minutes.
The issues were numerous. North Dakota State had an excellent shooting start. The Jayhawks started to play tight. KU’s shot selection was poor, and it struggled to get anything in transition.
Weariness just seemed to weigh certain Jayhawks down, and that was most evident with one player in particular.
Marcus Garrett — remember, he played through an illness against Kentucky two games and five days ago — simply had no juice. He was blocked four times by North Dakota State in the second half alone, barely getting off the ground on any shot he attempted near the rim.
“I thought Marcus played very tired, then of course I play him 36 minutes,” Self said. “So that’s not a smart thing to do.”
This is where it gets difficult. Are we to believe the first five games is the real Garrett?
If so, there’s reason for worry.
Never an offensive specialist to begin with, Garrett’s numbers have regressed thus far. He’s made just 13 of 33 two-pointers (39%) with a high number of turnovers and an assist rate about half of what he notched last season.
He doesn’t seem healthy or fresh at the moment. But then, don’t you have to think he’ll play better from this point forward?
My bet would be yes, though Saturday’s deviation from the norm was part of what shifted the game from a should-be laugher to an early head-scratcher.
To be clear, KU has performed roughly like a top-five team most of the season. The Jayhawks hung close against an elite Gonzaga team; it toughed out a close one against talented Kentucky, then also ran away from Saint Joseph’s in the final minutes.
Saturday’s performance, though, was not up to that same level.
“We were not near as quick to the ball, which usually is because of not being ready to play or fatigue,” Self said, “and I would probably blame it as much on fatigue as anything today.”
Excuses often are seen as cop-outs, but in this instance, it seems KU’s players deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The Jayhawks played drearily against North Dakota State, and in turn, they played poorly. The first seemed to cause the second, which shouldn’t be a constant moving forward.
Saturday’s result should still serve as a warning. Dragged-down KU was 20 points worse than expectation, which would be a loss in most games left on the schedule.
That’s all concerning for a team with Final Four aspirations, especially if one wants to believe the effort is the rule and not the exception.
There were too many weird things taking place Saturday, though, to believe that was the case.
And the level-headed view should still be this: KU’s players will be just fine ... once they get a few more Zs.
This story was originally published December 5, 2020 at 9:40 PM.
