KU Q&A: Leading-scorer forecast, Miles’ best move and basketball recruits to track
We’re back for another Kansas Jayhawks Q&A.
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I’ll continue to stick with my pick from earlier this offseason*: Ochai Agbaji.
* — For most of this Q&A, I’ll answer these questions assuming a full season, though obviously none of us know at this point what COVID-19 will do for college athletics in 2020-21.
To start, I love his scoring floor. If he’s healthy, he’ll be playing a ton of minutes, simply because he’s an excellent defender and someone coach Bill Self trusts.
Last year, Agbaji averaged 10 points in 33 minutes per game. I don’t figure he’ll play less than that in 2020-21, so you’re already looking at a lower-level estimate in the 11-12 ppg range.
I think Agbaji can do better, though. He made 34% of his threes last year, but I think that number is lower than what it will be next season, given his quick release and excellent shooting form. If he improves his handle just a little, he also should have more opportunities as a driver, and he also should feel like he has more of a green light now without Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike on the roster.
You could make a legitimate case here for Marcus Garrett, David McCormack or Tyon Grant-Foster. I’ll go with Agbaji, though, believing his best offensive days are still ahead.
To me, that’s too optimistic — and an over-simplistic view of where KU football is at this moment.
Sure, without considering the circumstances, one could make an argument that coach Les Miles was able to get three wins in Year 1 while also losing a couple close games. Turn those to victories — while believing Year 2 will go more smoothly — and that’s where you could start to talk yourself into that 5-to-6-win scenario.
It’s not right do that, though, because of KU’s roster reality.
The best thing — in my opinion —that Miles did in his first year involved his recruiting class.
For years, KU football has been dealing with a scholarship-player discrepancy. And yet for years, previous coaches — in an effort to try to shortcut their way to success — had continued to pursue a high number of junior-college players.
The analogy I’ve used is KU racking up a huge restaurant bill. Each coach and AD would pass that charge onto their successors, who would only add to the bill and leave it for the next ones down the line.
By bringing in a 30-freshman recruiting class, Miles ended that cycle. He basically admitted that KU must pay for its previous sins and build things up the right way, with a potential huge reward coming in 3-4 years when those developed players bring KU’s scholarship numbers back to a respectable level.
In the short term, though ... KU has huge roster holes it won’t fill with ready-now players. In particular, the Jayhawks have major losses at offensive line, defensive line, secondary and quarterback, and each of those are positions are likely to be exposed often when facing Big 12 competition.
KU has a favorable non-conference schedule, and it also has some real hope offensively following the promotion of coordinator Brent Dearmon.
Still ... this team roster-wise should unquestionably be worse than a year ago. When asked, I’ve guessed two wins for KU football this year, assuming a full season is played. Three or four, I’d think, should be considered a success, considering all the circumstances discussed above.
Probably not.
I understand why there’s interest in what Danny Manning does next, especially given the fact he was the top vote-getter for “All-time favorite KU basketball player” in our recent KU survey.
Still ... I wouldn’t think a return to KU as an assistant coach is a likely option.
For one, Manning was a Power Five head coach for the last six seasons before getting fired by Wake Forest. Those types of coaches often get second chances at similar-type jobs if they want to pursue them in future years.
Also, KU doesn’t have an opening on its staff. Perhaps Jerrance Howard — one of the nation’s top future head-coaching candidates — will want to pursue running his own program soon, but as it stands now, Self doesn’t have a full-time position available.
This also isn’t meant to disparage Manning in any way — many KU players of the past credited him for helping their improvement — but KU’s current coaches also deserve praise for their own development of the team’s big men lately. Just last season, Udoka Azubuike was Big 12 player of the year, and before that, guys like Perry Ellis, Landen Lucas and Dedric Lawson all displayed growth under the tutelage of both Self and big-man coach Norm Roberts.
A decade ago, the fit was great for Manning to be an assistant at KU. Now, though, he’s more likely to have his sights set higher ... with the Jayhawks also unlikely to be the best spot for him anyway, given the current situation.
I can’t see that happening.
We obviously can’t rule anything completely out at this point — some sort of miraculous medical breakthrough would be the most likely path to full arenas again — but given the current risks of people being indoors together for long periods, I’d think even an optimist would aim for something like one-fourth to one-half capacity at this point.
There are other stories out there that could make one think even that might be a troubling scenario. For now, though, I think I’m at the stage where I’d be surprised if any arena or stadium is at full capacity until the virus can be better controlled.
There are obvious caveats here — no one can know for sure how KU’s upcoming NCAA case will affect the future — but nonetheless, here are three names to keep an eye on when it comes to KU recruiting:
• 6-7 small forward Kendall Brown — The 12th-ranked Rivals player in next year’s class — he plays for Sunrise Christian Academy in Bel Aire, Kansas — Brown has KU among his 10 finalists, with many analysts predicting Lawrence as a likely landing spot.
• 6-4 point guard Hunter Sallis — Sallis, a Nebraska native who is 11th in his class, took a visit to KU on the day of the Jayhawks’ Senior Night game vs. TCU.
• 6-6 shooting guard Gradey Dick — The Wichita junior, ranked 32nd nationally by Rivals, received an offer from Self more than a year ago.
This story was originally published June 30, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
