Quick Scout: Explaining my slight lean with this KU-Stanford prediction
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Sunday’s game: No. 5 Kansas at Stanford, 2 p.m. Central, Maples Pavilion, Stanford, Calif.
TV: ABC
Opponent’s record: 11-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 54
Point spread: Kansas by 6.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Getting close shots: Stanford has gotten 51% of its field goal attempts at the rim this season — the fourth-best mark nationally — and has above-NCAA-average accuracy on those tries.
▪ Creating havoc: The Cardinal is 31st in defensive turnover percentage and 55th in steal rate; the team also has forced turnovers on at least 20% of its opponents’ possessions in all 11 of its wins this year.
▪ Foul avoidance: Stanford is 38th in defensive free throw rate, meaning KU — much like the Villanova game — should have to earn most of its points through field goals.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Giveaways: Stanford is prone to mistakes offensively, ranking 285th in offensive turnover rate.
▪ Transition defense: The Cardinal has gotten away with this some while playing weaker competition, but the team has allowed the 26th-highest percentage of shots in transition to opponents.
▪ Offensive rebounding: This appears to be a philosophical choice for Haase, with only his centers posting decent numbers on the offensive glass; most likely, Haase is sending four guys back to try to prevent easy shots on fast breaks.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward Oscar da Silva (No. 13)
Plus: This is from his Stanford bio ... my goodness: “Works in the stem cell research lab on campus preparing tissue samples (cutting and imaging them), studying certain cell functions and discovering what inhibiting them does to the cell and how that can minimize diseases. Presented his abstract at a medical conference in Baltimore in April”
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively who has has maintained excellent efficiency
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim
Plus: Gets fouled often and is a 84% free-throw shooter
Plus: Has good shot selection and rarely fires from mid-range
Minus: Infrequent three-point shooter; 5-for-15 this season
Minus: Synergy’s logs indicate he struggles defensively to get out to perimeter shooters
Prediction
When looking at the major factors, I feel like I slightly lean Stanford’s way on most of them.
The Jayhawks’ most notable defensive characteristic is allowing threes, and though the Cardinal doesn’t typically attempt a lot of perimeter tries, it has made 39% of those long-range shots this season. Haase also showed against KU last year (34 three-point attempts vs. the Jayhawks in road overtime loss) that he isn’t hesitant to change up his team’s style in a one-game setting while searching for efficient offense.
Stanford appears that it could be vulnerable a bit in transition ... but this KU team has been one of coach Bill Self’s worst in that regard recently. KU still should have an athleticism advantage, but it might not play up as much as previous years.
Haase also has to be worried about his team’s turnovers ... though KU could have more problems forcing them on the road as compared to the frantic environment that Allen Fieldhouse can provide.
Honestly, the line feels about right for this one. Asked to pick a side, I like Stanford for the slight cover for the reasons above, though that still could end with KU taking a close victory.
Kansas 67, Stanford 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Stanford
Hawk to Rock
Haase spoke earlier this week about being wary of one particular KU 7-foot big man, but I’ll go with an off-the-board pick here and say Isaiah Moss comes through with an important offensive boost for the Jayhawks. Stanford — after leading the nation in three-point prevention last season — has returned to a defensive style that allows a high number of spot-up attempts. Moss, then, could play a huge role with his skill-set, especially if he’s able to break out of the mini-shooting slump he’s been in.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Villanova 72 (Actual: Villanova 56-55)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 8-3
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 107-79-3
