Quick scout: Why KU could be set up for rare road success against Oklahoma State
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Kansas at Oklahoma State, 11 a.m., Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 10-18
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 108
Point spread: KU by 7.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Three-point shooting: Oklahoma State is second in both three-point volume (42 percent of field-goal attempts are threes) and three-point accuracy (38 percent) during Big 12 play.
▪ Ball security: The Cowboys have improved their offensive turnover percentage during the conference slate, ranking second in the stat since league games began.
▪ Size: Oklahoma State is 59th in KenPom’s average height measure, starting a lineup that goes 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at the three guard positions.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Finishing twos: Oklahoma State is an unskilled team inside, ranking 341st in field-goal percentage at the rim and 308th in accuracy on mid-range jumpshots.
▪ Creating havoc: The Cowboys have the most passive defense in the Big 12 when it comes to turnovers, which is perhaps a result of coach Mike Boynton trying to conserve both energy and fouls for a team that has only eight scholarship players.
▪ Three-point defense: Not only does Oklahoma State give up a lot of threes, it also allows 7.9 “unguarded” spot-up attempts per game via Synergy — a number that is 57th-highest nationally.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-6 guard Lindy Waters (No. 21)
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Made 7 of 10 threes in 26-point effort at Texas Tech on Wednesday
Plus: 93-percent free-throw shooter
Plus: Good outside shooter off dribble
Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often
Minus: Struggles to score both at rim and in mid-range
6-foot-7 forward Cameron McGriff (No. 12)
Plus: Best offensive skill is getting fouled
Plus: 76-percent free-throw shooter
Plus: Good rebounder, both ends
Plus: Decent shot-blocker
Minus: Terrible finisher at the rim for his size
Minus: Shoots lots of threes but is only 32 percent there for his career
6-foot-4 guard Thomas Dziagwa (No. 4)
Plus: Shooter, shooter, shooter
Plus: Leads Big 12 in three-point attempts and still has 45-percent accuracy from perimeter
Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often
Plus: Rarely fouls
Minus: Complete non-threat inside the three-point line
Minus: Almost never draws fouls; don’t have to worry about his creating for himself from two-point range off bounce
Prediction
There are reasons one can feel strongly about both sides against the spread here.
Those who like Oklahoma State and the points have recent history going for them; the Cowboys have won four of their last five against the Jayhawks in Gallagher-Iba Arena. In addition, the team relies heavily on threes — that has been a KU defensive weakness this year — and is coming off one of its best games after pushing Texas Tech to overtime Wednesday.
When looking from the KU perspective ... Oklahoma State, since dismissing three players from the team in mid-January for vandalism, has played much worse, dropping about 40 spots in KenPom’s rankings. This also has been the Big 12’s leakiest defense in conference play, and outside of perimeter shooting, the team has had few strengths with its shorthanded roster.
For the Jayhawks, this really should be about selling out to guard the perimeter. The Cowboys are the extreme of extremes, making 38 percent of their threes and 41 percent of their twos in Big 12 games; if coach Bill Self was ever going to invert his defense to focus more outside-in, this would be the time to do it.
KU did have success against one team earlier this year that was three-happy like Oklahoma State: Wofford. The Jayhawks chased those shooters down on the perimeter, with the Terriers shooting a lower volume and accuracy from range (5-for-26) in a 72-47 KU victory on Dec. 4.
It’s possible the Jayhawks could focus more of their attention outside. It’s also possible Oklahoma State could simply have a worse shooting game than it did Wednesday.
Looking outside of that factor ... the Jayhawks have struggled on the road with turnovers, but should get a boost here because the Cowboys don’t force many. KU also shouldn’t face as difficult of a road environment as many other Big 12 locations, which might help the team’s composure considering it has had a tendency to struggle in late-game situations away from home.
Though it’s impossible to predict how Oklahoma State will shoot, I actually like the Jayhawks’ chances here for both a road win and cover.
Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
After a rough last two games, this seems like a good spot for Ochai Agbaji to re-emerge as an offensive threat. Oklahoma State allows open threes in bunches, and Agbaji has excellent efficiency numbers when he gets those particular attempts. Look for the freshman to easily get back to double-digit scoring Saturday after combining for just two points in his last two contests.
Last game prediction: Kansas 73, Kansas State 65 (Actual: KU 64-49)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 17-11
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 94-73-3
