Quick scout: Why KU’s shot selection will be worth watching against Eastern Michigan
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction. Stats are as of Friday night.
Saturday’s game: No. 5 Kansas vs. Eastern Michigan, 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence
Opponent’s record: 6-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 190
Point spread: KU by 22 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: Eastern Michigan, which ranks 36th nationally in average height, does little well offensively besides attacking the offensive glass (44th in O-rebounding rate).
▪ Foul avoidance: The Eagles are 14th in defensive free-throw rate, which means this could be a quick game at Allen Fieldhouse between two teams who avoid whistles well.
▪ Rim protection: Eastern Michigan is 45th in block rate, with four players on the roster ranking in the top 500 in the stat.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point shooting: Eastern Michigan doesn’t shoot threes often, and when it does, it hasn’t been accurate at 27 percent (334th nationally).
▪ Defensive rebounding: Duke, in particular, crushed Eastern Michigan on the glass earlier this year, grabbing 52 percent of its missed shots in a Nov. 14 contest.
▪ Free throws (on offense): The Eagles almost never get to the line (340th in offensive free-throw rate), and when they have, they’ve made just 58 percent of those shots (350th).
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-10 forward/center James Thompson (No. 2)
Plus: Excellent rebounder, both ends
Plus: Efficient offensive player overall
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Strong finisher at the rim
Minus: Not a three-point shooter
Minus: Defers offensively; doesn’t shoot as much as he should
6-foot-9 forward Elijah Minnie (No. 5)
Plus: Takes on large offensive role
Plus: Team’s most frequent three-point shooter
Minus: Has struggled from three this year (27 percent vs. D-I opponents)
Minus: Turnover prone
6-foot-2 guard Paul Jackson (No. 3)
Plus: Eastern Kentucky transfer
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively
Plus: Good passer
Minus: Inefficient player overall who struggles to shoot from all levels
Minus: Rarely draws contact/gets to free-throw line
Minus: Below-average three-point shooter for career
Prediction
Eastern Michigan plays a 2-3 zone defense, which complicates things for KU considering the circumstances.
The threes should be open (and have been open all year) against the Eagles, though with KU struggling from range in its previous loss to Arizona State, I figure most of the Jayhawks might be gun-shy to take open threes, especially with KU coach Bill Self likely harping on shot selection over the past few practices.
KU, then, will likely try to challenge Eastern Michigan where it’s best: inside. The Eagles have good size and decent rim protection, which could make it difficult on a Jayhawks team that has had a tendency to fall in love with mid-range shots.
The hope for a KU cover likely comes on the defensive end, then. Eastern Michigan has been careless offensively and struggles especially with live-ball turnovers, which gives KU some potential to get easy twos on fastbreaks. This Jayhawks team hasn’t been one of Self’s best in transition, but it still could find numerous opportunities with numbers simply based on Eastern Michigan’s tendencies.
Offensively, the Eagles like to slow it down, which could help limit possessions as a big underdog. The team’s only real offensive calling card (offensive rebounding) will also go up against a KU strength, especially if Udoka Azubuike is able to return close to full strength.
I still worry about KU’s offense, though, and especially so if Azubuike is trying to work his way back into the lineup. Self will surely draw up a few set plays for easy baskets against Eastern Michigan’s zone, but the Jayhawks still could find troubles trying to attack the strongest part of the Eagles’ defense.
Kansas 74, Eastern Michigan 57
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Eastern Michigan
Hawk to Rock
Devon Dotson is KU’s second best player when it comes to steals and the team’s No. 1 option in transition. This sets up as a great matchup for him, especially if he can knock down a couple open threes as well.
Last game prediction: Kansas 77, Arizona State 67 (Actual: ASU 80-76)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 6-5
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 83-67-3
This story was originally published December 29, 2018 at 7:30 AM.
