Why KU’s offense has struggled a bit, and one potential path to improved efficiency
The Kansas basketball offense has taken a step back this season, and that should not be surprising.
KU coach Bill Self catered to his team’s strengths a year ago, choosing to play four sharpshooting guards together for a juggernaut offense that would, in turn, create some known limitations on defense.
Self is not forced to play that way this season. He has a deeper roster and more big bodies, meaning KU was going to be more balanced. Predictably, the Jayhawks have been better with two-point defense and rebounding, which has helped the defensive numbers bounce back nicely.
The offense, though, has been off — especially in the last three games without the injured Udoka Azubuike.
KU’s adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s calculations, is down nearly five points per 100 possessions from last year’s mark. One view to help understand that can be seen when looking at the team’s shot selection numbers from Hoop-Math.com.
| % of shots at rim | % of shots in mid-range | % of shots from 3 | |
| 2017-18 | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| 2018-19 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
KU has done a good job of getting additional shots at the rim this season, though we can expect that number will fall a bit when once Big 12 play begins. The concern is that the Jayhawks have traded many three-point shots (often an efficient college basketball play) for attempts in the mid-range (which comes with the worst point-per-possession totals).
It’s important to stop here with a caveat: There are different ways for teams to be successful. The Royals built a World Series winner on contact hitters and speed, which is not a normal championship formula.
We have to realize, though, that this style also worked because it was part of a bigger picture. The Royals offense still wasn’t among the majors’ best that season, but combined with the game’s best bullpen and outstanding defense, it was effective for how the team came together.
Mid-range shots, by themselves, are not an automatic recipe for disaster. A good example is 2016-17 North Carolina, which won the NCAA title with a team that attempted 36 percent of its shots from that in-between zone.
Here’s the context, though: That worked for the Tar Heels because they did so many other things well offensively.
| % | National rank | |
| Adj. shooting% | 52% | 115th |
| TO% | 16% | 39th |
| OR% | 41% | 1st |
| Free-throw rate | 34% | 208th |
North Carolina, despite iffy shot selection, thrived offensively with volume. Its first shot might not be ideal, but the team was almost never turning it over, and then 41 percent of the time, it was grabbing missed shots for another opportunity.
With this background, let’s take a look at KU this season.
| % | National rank | |
| Adj. Shooting% | 54% | 65th |
| TO% | 17% | 51st |
| OR% | 30% | 129th |
| Free-throw rate | 38% | 92nd |
Self was worried about his team’s carelessness coming into the year, but that actually has turned into one of KU’s biggest strengths. Guards have mostly taken care of the ball, while the Jayhawks also have benefited by getting the ball to Dedric Lawson often, who ranks among the best nationally when it comes to avoiding giveaways.
Here’s the tricky part, though: KU isn’t getting offensive rebounds at the rate that Self probably expected. A lot of this in recent games has been because of the Jayhawks’ lineup, as without Azubuike, Self has gone back to a four-guard set, and taking a big man off the floor certainly is going to impact a team’s rebounding ability.
So, at least while Azubuike is out, KU can’t steal possessions as it might’ve earlier this season. It also can’t commit fully to outside shooting like last year’s team, as Lagerald Vick has been the only consistent player from the perimeter so far.
Still, from a quick look at the numbers, KU appears to have an area where it can still improve analytically.
| Shots at rim FG% | Mid-range FG% | 3-point FG% |
| 64.2% | 36.5% | 37.3% |
The math here isn’t that complicated. KU has made a higher percentage of its threes than mid-range shots, with the former providing a one-point bonus.
KU, as of Monday, also was 330th (out of 353 teams) when it came to three-point shot volume. Even without trying too hard, it seems the Jayhawks — through play calls or additional awareness — should be able to transition some mid-range shots into ones beyond the arc.
That would stand to have a positive effect in a few ways. Not only would it force teams to guard KU farther out on the perimeter to create more space inside for post players and drives (guard Marcus Garrett in particular often has seen his defender sag off into the lane recently while not respecting him), it also would potentially give KU efficient offense, providing the chance at three points with at least the possibility of an offensive rebound.
Self’s biggest concern coming into the season with this team was outside shooting, and some of those fears seem to have been confirmed. He still appears to have the correct mindset, though, when it comes to his team remaining aggressive from three even after a so-so start.
“I don’t know if that’s the method to play against us, is to dare guys to shoot it, because we’ve got good enough shooters that they can knock down a shot,” Self said Monday. “... I would be fine if everybody backed off everybody other than Lagerald, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think the way that people play us is, ‘They don’t play to shoot the three if you guard them.’ So if that’s the case, we need to throw the ball inside more.
“But if they back off, I can’t see us being a team that would turn down an open three.”
KU, from a pure numbers standpoint, definitely shouldn’t shy away from those looks. Synergy Sports Technology’s logs reflect that as well, putting KU at 1.00 per possession on jumpshots from 17 feet and in, 0.67 PPP on attempts between 17 and 21 feet and 1.21 PPP on three-point looks.
This team has struggled at times with threes, no doubt. And the Jayhawks also haven’t had the best distributors, which has made spot-up chances more difficult to acquire.
Big picture, though, the process here remains important. KU might not shoot as well from three as last season, but that doesn’t mean the Jayhawks should back off from what has remained an important part of the team’s 9-0 start.
Three-pointers — when open — are still a good shot for this team.
And the Jayhawks, with confidence, should fire away with this truth in mind.
