Quick scout: KU’s biggest challenge when it comes to covering against South Dakota
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: South Dakota vs. No. 1 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: Jayhawk TV/ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 6-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 169
Point spread: KU by 21 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating contact: South Dakota is 30th in free throw rate and has the 25th-highest split nationally when it comes to getting points from the line.
▪ Three-point defense: The Coyotes are above average when it comes to limiting opponent three-point attempts.
▪ Transition defense: South Dakota is 71st in terms of reducing transition opportunities and 30th in shooting percentage allowed in those situations.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point shooting: South Dakota shoots more threes than an average team, but only has 29 percent accuracy there (313th nationally).
▪ Offensive rebounding: The Coyotes mostly abandon the offensive glass to get back in transition it appears, ranking 296th in O-board percentage.
▪ Post defense: South Dakota, which is a short team overall, fouls often defensively and also does not have much in the way of rim protection.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-6 forward Trey Burch-Manning (No. 12)
Plus: Team’s best player in transition
Plus: Good three-point shooter in limited attempts
Plus: Solid defensive rebounder
Plus: Synergy’s logs rank him as “very good” defender
Minus: Below-average free throw shooter
Minus: Not a shot-blocking threat
6-foot-5 guard Brandon Armstrong (No. 20)
Plus: Strong three-point shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Synergy has him as “very good” defender who does excellent job of getting out to perimeter shooters
Minus: Poor two-point shooter
Minus: Doesn’t create contact often
6-foot-6 guard Stanley Umude (No. 0)
Plus: Takes on huge offensive role when he’s on the floor
Plus: Excellent finisher at the rim
Plus: Gets fouled often
Plus: Team’s best shot-blocker
Minus: Poor free throw shooter
Minus: Extremely foul prone
Prediction
KU has been playing mostly low-possession games lately, and this one shouldn’t be any different.
South Dakota likes to play methodically on the offensive end while also hustling back to prevent easy shots. The Jayhawks, then, will likely need to be efficient with their half-court offense if they hope to cover this 21 1/2-point spread.
The good news here for KU: It shouldn’t have to sway from its inside-out style. Get the ball toward the paint, whether off the bounce or to a post player, and the Jayhawks should get fouled often while also finding little resistance in terms of shot-blocking.
Meanwhile, KU’s defense has been improved the last three games, and South Dakota is the worst statistical offense the Jayhawks have faced this year.
It’s still tricky with the spread. The line is probably a point or two higher than I would have expected, and without a fast-paced tempo, KU will have to play especially well to clear that number.
I’ll say the Jayhawks, thanks to effective interior scoring, are able to do it ... just barely.
Kansas 78, South Dakota 55
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
KU is facing a team 1. without rim protection 2. that doesn’t try often for offensive rebounds and 3. fouls too much. It’s hard to imagine a better matchup for Dedric Lawson, who should pile up the layups, free throws and rebounds in what could be a huge statistical night.
Last game prediction: Kansas 79, Villanova 77 (Actual: KU 74-71)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 5-4
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 82-66-3
This story was originally published December 18, 2018 at 11:36 AM.
