Star politics: ‘California’s abortion regime is gonna look really different than Missouri’s’
While riding an elevator with Missouri U.S. Sen Josh Hawley in the U.S. Capitol this week, I asked him where he stood, exactly, on abortion.
“I’ve always said that I am 100% pro life,” Hawley said. “I support exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.”
That means Hawley supports more exceptions than would be the law in Missouri if the U.S. Supreme Court follows through with a draft decision and overturns Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that legalized abortion across the country.
Missouri’s law is called a trigger law because it goes into effect (aka is triggered) as soon as the court says states are allowed to ban abortion. It criminalizes abortion in Missouri in all cases except when it is necessary to save the life of the mother. While women would not be punished for getting an abortion, a doctor who performs the procedure would be subject to a Class B felony, which could result in jail time.
Hawley said that he supports the law and that if he were still the attorney general in the state he would enforce it. But the fact that his position doesn’t perfectly align with the law in Missouri illustrates what will likely be the next political challenge for the issue — how far should lawmakers go in banning abortion?
Already, there are differences about what a ban should include. Hawley’s endorsed candidate in the Missouri Senate primary, U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, says abortion should only be legal when it’s necessary to protect the life of the mother. And there are differences over whether there should be a federal ban if Republicans gain control of Congress and the White House or if the issue should be left for the states to decide.
For a long time, abortion has been a galvanizing issue for Christian conservatives, helping to drive Republican turnout in elections. Former President Donald Trump was able to shore up support in 2016 after he released a list of conservative judges he would choose from to replace former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. In statehouses, conservative legislatures found ways to scrape away at abortion rights, sometimes to the point where they were often willing to pass laws unlikely to prevail in court (until they found the right argument and the right court to overturn Roe).
A Gallup poll in 2020 found that 24% of adults would only vote for a candidate who supports their stance on abortion (about the same percentage between Republicans and Democrats). And a 2021 Gallup poll found that 58% of Americans were not in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade.
But if abortion access is no longer federally mandated, it could result in a messy stew of political motivation.
For die-hards, the people who are really engaged with abortion politics: Anti-abortion activists may seek a federal ban, keeping their voters engaged in the process until abortion is outlawed across the country. Meanwhile abortion rights activists may become more motivated to support candidates who would codify Roe v. Wade in an attempt to guarantee abortion access even in states with conservative legislatures.
For the median voter, generally someone who believes there should be some restrictions but does not support an outright ban, their vote could shift depending on how far abortion restrictions go in some states.
It’s still unclear how much abortion will play into races in Kansas and Missouri this fall. In August, Kansas is voting on a ballot measure that would say there is no guaranteed right to an abortion in the state constitution. That vote may give some indication on where the passion on abortion rights lies.
In Missouri, it’s unlikely abortion would be enough to swing the vote in Democrats’ favor, given the margin Republicans have been winning by over the past few years. Of course, if former Gov. Eric Greitens is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, the seat may be more in play.
In the meantime, the country would be looking at a set of diverse laws on abortion, where access to the procedure depends solely on where you live.
“California’s abortion regime is gonna look really different than Missouri’s,” Hawley said. “And that’s fine. That’s federalism. And then we’re gonna have a big robust national debate about this. And let’s give that some time to breathe.”
More from Missouri
A Missouri judge ruled that former Gov. Eric Greitens can continue to pursue his ex-wife’s cellphone records. Greitens has alleged that Sheena Greitens was part of a political hit job intended to hurt his chances in the state’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate when she accused him of physical and emotional abuse in sworn testimony. The judge ruled against Greitens’ attempts to get cellphone records of his former staffer, Austin Chambers, and his former sister-in-law, Catherine Linkul.
Here are headlines from across the state:
Greitens allowed to pursue ex-wife’s phone records, Missouri judge rules, Kacen Bayless
MO teachers are among lowest paid in the nation, but they soon could get a raise, Kacen Bayless
Missouri Democrats hope Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade a ‘wakeup call,’ Kacen Bayless
Hawley condemned the Supreme Court leak, then blamed the left without evidence, Daniel Desrochers
Sports betting in Missouri stalls, raising concerns people will go to Kansas to place bets, Kacen Bayless
And across Kansas
If the Supreme Court’s draft decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health holds, Kansas will be the first state to hold a vote on abortion post-Roe v. Wade. The ruling would raise the stakes on a ballot measure on whether to say there’s no guaranteed right to an abortion in Kansas’ constitution. Supporters of the measure won’t talk about what would come next if the measure passes.
Leaked SCOTUS opinion suggests Kansas will hold nation’s first post-Roe abortion vote, Katie Bernard
Kansas foster child who ran from care found dead, Laura Bauer
Kansas senator demands new TV rating so parents can shield kids from LGBTQ characters, Daniel Desrochers
Democratic state senator, alleging gerrymandering, goes to court to fight new map, Jonathan Shorman
Kansas clinic founder to open new facility in ‘abortion desert,’ despite Roe news, Judy L. Thomas
The latest from Kansas City
In Kansas City …
Kansas City could buy $17M in trash bins for residents. Could that fix dumping problem?, Cortlynn Stark
Kansas City unveiled a plan to fix potholes last year. So why are fewer filled now?, Natalie Wallington
Kansas City has a clear favorite among the artwork chosen for KCI’s new terminal, Robert A. Cronkleton
Have a news tip? Send it along to ddesrochers@mcclatchydc.com.
Odds and ends
New poll
Missouri Scout commissioned a poll testing Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine against the top three candidates in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate — Greitens, Hartzler and Attorney General Eric Schmitt.
The poll was commissioned by Remington Research Group and conducted between April 27 and 28. It surveyed 986 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
It found that Busch Valentine would lose to all three candidates. Schmitt led 50% to 32%, Hartzler led 49% to 33% and Greitens led 46% to 37%.
The poll did not include Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce, who has been in the race longer than Busch Valentine. A poll conducted in early March by the Trafalgar Group found Kunce trailing Greitens by .9 percentage points.
The poll pokes a hole in the argument that Busch Valentine, who is running as a moderate, would be a more palatable choice for Republicans in a general election against Greitens. Still the poll was commissioned only a month after Busch Valentine entered the race and she hasn’t been out courting voters the way Kunce has.
Ads
To the above point, Busch Valentine launched her first television ad this week. It’s an introductory spot that highlights the fact that she grew up in the Busch brewing family and later became a nurse and philanthropist (it avoids the phrase “heir to the Annheuser-Busch fortune” which is often the way she’s introduced in news reports).
Meanwhile, the Republican PACs are still on the attack — against each other. Save Missouri Values, a PAC supporting Schmitt, launched an ad criticizing Hartzler for a vote she cast in support of an immigration reform bill that failed in the U.S. House of Representatives despite backing from Trump. It was the same line of attack used by a pro-Greitens PAC.
Both times Hartzler has pushed back, claiming it means the people who launched the ad are criticizing Trump.
Schmitt
Schmitt and the attorney general from Louisiana launched a lawsuit on Thursday accusing President Joe Biden’s administration of working with Meta (the social media company formerly known as Facebook), Twitter and YouTube in suppressing speech.
The lawsuit largely stems from comments Biden and members of his administration made suggesting they would like to see social media platforms do a better job of combating disinformation.
It includes a checklist of things Republicans have accused the social media giants of censoring — an article about information found on Hunter Biden’s laptop during the 2020 election, posts about gain-of-function research, posts challenging public health protocols to limit the spread of COVID-19 (like vaccines) and removing posts that falsely claim the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
Top conservatives
The American Conservative Union’s Foundation for Government Accountability put out their annual list of who they view as the top conservatives in Congress. Kansas Reps. Tracey Mann and Ron Estes made the top tier, joining some of the firebrands in the party, like Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn.
Hawley and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall made the second tier, along with Missouri Reps. Vicky Hartzler, Sam Graves and Jason Smith and Kansas Rep. Jake LaTurner.
Happy Friday
It’s the Kentucky Derby on Saturday! Here’s an opinion piece about why the Derby is a tarnished flagship for horse racing and then an article about which long-shots have the best chance to win. Here’s how to mix a mint julep the way they do at Churchill Downs. Here’s a song written by Dolly Parton, but sung beautifully by Whitney Houston.
Enjoy your weekend.
Looking for more?
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This story was originally published May 5, 2022 at 7:06 PM.