When, and how much, snow is expected in the KC area from October’s winter storm
An early winter storm will bring a second round of wintry weather to the Kansas City area beginning Tuesday evening, dumping two inches or more of snow on the metro, according to FOX4 meteorologist Michelle Bogowith.
A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Kansas City region, including the metro, which will take effect at 10 p.m. Tuesday and run to 4 a.m. Thursday.
“For much of the day today, yes we will be cloudy but we will stay fairly dry,” said Bogowith, who provides weather updates to The Star. “As we move toward sunset, though, you’ll notice just off to our south as we look at 6 p.m., some cold rain showers will start to lift up closer and closer to the Kansas City metro area.”
The showers are expected to arrive by 10 p.m. in the Kansas City metro. Overnight, a transition line of wintry mix is expected to set up just south of the Kansas City area.
“At times with that cold rain, you could have some big fat wet snowflakes mixing in with that,” Bogowith said. “You’ll most likely see more snow in northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.”
Meanwhile, the cold rain will continue to the south and east of Kansas City.
“As we work our way toward noon on Wednesday, that’s when we will begin to transition over to an all-snow event,” Bogowith said. “This will likely linger on into the evening commute, causing all kinds of headaches on the roadways.”
Snow showers will continue through midnight Wednesday and into early Thursday morning, she said. The snow will wind down Thursday and any lingering cloud cover will eventually move out.
“When all is said and done, we’re expecting a solid 2 inches (of snow) for many of you,” Bogowith said.
Some locations around St. Joseph and areas to the east could see between 2 and 4 inches of snow, possibly more. Areas to the southeast of Kansas City will likely see a dusting of snow.
Because many trees still have their leaves, it won’t take much snow to start bringing down tree limbs, causing some power outages, especially north of Kansas City where heavier snowfall amounts are expected, according to the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill.
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The Star produced this weather update in partnership with the local FOX4 television station. The station’s meteorologists create forecast videos multiple times a day for the newspaper to include in its weather reports.
Tricky snow forecast
A rain-snow mix is expected to start falling in the metro area between 10 p.m. and midnight Tuesday, according to Ray Christensen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“There could be some freezing drizzle mixed in, but I think we’re talking about maybe just a really light glaze of freezing drizzle,” Christensen said. “I don’t think it’s really going to cause road problems due to the fact that road temperatures will probably be at or just above freezing.”
There could be some slick spots on bridges. Overnight snow accumulations should be light in the metro — less than an inch is expected, he said. People who park outside might also need to break out their ice scrapers.
“As we head into Wednesday, the cold air starts filtering in, especially toward late afternoon and evening,” Christensen said. “During the day on Wednesday, any precipitation will be like a rain/snow mix. So really, it’s not going to stick much during the day time.”
The best chance for accumulating snow will be in the evening after the sun sets. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected in the metro. The heavier amounts will be on the north side of the metro and mainly on the grassy surfaces.
“As you get farther north, there’s a chance for 1 to 3 inches of snow,” Christensen said.
One of the models that is used to forecast the weather and snowfall amounts has been consistently showing a lot more snow expected to fall from this storm event, he said.
That model, the Global Forecast System, was showing between 6 to 10 inches of snow could fall north of the metro and between 3 to 6 inches in Kansas City.
“I think that is really high for this area with this event,” Christensen said. “That is our current thinking looking at all the other models and seeing what the temperature trends.”
The weather service uses the National Blend of Models, which basically takes all of the forecast models and averages them out to get the best forecast.
“We are not going to just look at one and say, ‘That’s good,’” Christensen said. “We are looking at several.”
Bone-chilling cold for Halloween
Thursday will remain cold, with the high reaching 37 degrees, making it one of the coldest Halloween days on record. Trick-or-treaters will want to bundle up before heading out Thursday evening.
“Once we move past Halloween, heading into the start of November, here comes the sunshine back in action — 50s back starting Sunday,” Bogowith said.
Luke Bryan announced that his Farm Tour concert on Wednesday in Lousiburg, Kansas, will move to the Sprint Center because of inclement weather. Seating will be general admission and concertgoers can start lining up at 2 p.m. for wristbands. Doors will open at 5 p.m.
The concert was previously scheduled for Oct. 3 but was postponed due to rain.
