Looser gun laws mean more deaths in Missouri. But experts say more research needed

Gun homicides and suicides increase when laws are loosened, studies on Missouri’s firearms laws have shown, but research on the full impact of deregulation has been stifled by the gun lobby, according to experts.

In the early 1990s, a push to understand the causes and the impacts of gun violence created a movement towards studying gun violence as a form of public health.

But that effort died quickly.

When a federally funded study found that having a firearm at home increased the likelihood of firearm homicide by a family member or intimate partner in 1993, it drew quick backlash from the National Rifle Association. The NRA accused the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of being biased against guns and began lobbying against the federal agency’s efforts on gun violence research.

The result of the NRA’s lobbying was the adoption of the 1996 Dickey Amendment — championed by Arkansas Rep. Jay Dickey — which barred any studies that could promote gun control. That made the CDC hesitant to fund any gun-related studies.

The amendment, adopted into the appropriations bill annually, imposed a nearly full federal moratorium on gun violence research over the next two decades, according to experts.

“The reality is, collectively, our understanding of the impact of gun laws on our lives is very limited,” said Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, an epidemiologist and professor based out of the University of Washington in Seattle. Missouri stands out for how many studies have been done looking at the effects of the state’s gun laws, Rowhani-Rahbar said. The studies have not all shown the same exact outcomes, but they have illustrated that changes in laws, like the repeal of requirements to purchase a handgun, have led to an increase in firearm homicides and suicides.

Here’s what researchers have found:

• The repeal of permit to purchase led to at least a 25%, and as much as a 47%, increase in firearm homicides and a 23.5% increase in firearm suicides in Missouri.

• Another study on the repeal of permit to purchase also found that the law was associated with a 16.1% increase in firearm suicide rates.

• A study on the repeal of permit to purchase’s impact on adolescents found that the law led to a 21.8% increase in firearm suicide rates in young adults aged 19 to 24 years in Missouri. The study also found that lowering the age for concealed carry was associated with an increase of 32% in firearm suicides in those between 14 to 18 years old and a 7.2% in young adults.

However, many of the studies have limitations, said Andrew Morral, director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research at RAND Corporation.

Morral’s team evaluates firearm studies to see if they conclusively prove that changes in firearm policies have had outcomes like increased firearm deaths.

Although researchers who have tried to study some of these firearm laws, like permit to purchase in Missouri, have done a good job of trying to isolate the impacts of the policies, their findings have limits, Morral said.

To really see what the impact of a law is, it’s best to have that same law applied in many states first, he said.

“Because in any one state when you pass a law, there’s a million other things happening that same year that could be affecting the outcome that you’re interested in,” he said. “And so saying that, well, you must have been this law change that caused any change in the outcome is a kind of an article of faith.”

The firearm policies that do have compelling evidence showing impacts on safety are child access prevention laws and stand your ground laws, he said.

According to the team’s findings, child access prevention laws — such as safe storage requirements that limit a child’s access to firearms by imposing liabilities on adults — appeared to reduce suicides and self injury by children and unintentional injuries and deaths among young people. And the evidence behind the impact of stand your ground laws is so strong because the laws have been implemented in many states and studied many times.

Missouri doesn’t have any child access prevention laws. The state adopted stand your ground laws in 2016.

This story was originally published October 31, 2021 at 5:00 AM.

Hurubie Meko

The Kansas City Star

(913) 213-3729

Hurubie Meko covers gun violence for The Star as a 2021 Report for America corps member. She is an American University School of Communications graduate and was previously a data and visualizations reporter in Pennsylvania.