Hartzler’s Senate campaign creates open seat House race in Missouri. Who will run?
Missouri Republican Rep. Vicky Hartzler’s Senate candidacy has sparked a scramble to fill her seat in the U.S. House with a slew of state lawmakers and others eyeing runs for the GOP-leaning district.
“I am giving serious consideration to exploring a run for Congress,” confirmed state Rep. Sara Walsh, an Ashland Republican. She emerged as a vociferous opponent of funding for the voter-approved expansion of Medicaid during the recent legislative session.
Walsh argued that despite a statewide majority for expansion, her district’s rural counties “said no.” Chair of the House Majority Caucus, Walsh helped lead blockage of funding for the program, leading to Gov. Mike Parson’s cancellation of the expansion and a subsequent lawsuit brought by expansion advocates.
The wife of Hartzler’s spokesman, Walsh attended the congresswoman’s Senate campaign launch Thursday in Lee’s Summit.
Walsh’s possible candidacy suggests that the contest to replace Hartzler, a staunch social conservative, is likely to be a sprint to the ideological right.
Hartzler, who hails from Cass County, was the first Republican to win Missouri’s 4th Congressional District since the 1950s when she ousted 17-term Democratic incumbent Ike Skelton in 2010. But the GOP’s hold on the once Democratic district has grown tighter each election since then and Hartzler won her most recent contest by nearly 40 points.
Even with an open seat race, national Democrats are unlikely to steer resources to the district in 2022 when they’ll be focused on defending their narrow House majority in suburban swing districts.
The 4th district stretches from the southern edge of Kansas City in Cass County to central Missouri. While it takes in the liberal-leaning college town of Columbia, the district is mostly rural and Republican. It has a substantial military population around Whiteman Air Force Base.
“I think this district will be entirely decided in the Republican primary,” said James Harris, a Jefferson City-based Republican strategist. “Other than Boone County there’s not one Democrat county in this district.”
Harris said the district had already shifted toward Republicans before Skelton’s 2010 defeat and that trend has continued in the culturally conservative district.
He predicted the animating issues in the race would be social hot buttons, like crime and defending police budgets from perceived cuts. Fealty to former President Donald Trump, who won the district by double digits last year, will also figure prominently in any winning message.
“I think what you’ll see is there are fewer George W. Bush Republicans and more Donald Trump Republicans especially in this district,” Harris said. “You have traditional issues like the Second Amendment and abortion and other issues where voters are looking for who will stand up and fight the Biden administration and their agenda.”
Redistricting in 2022 will reshape the boundaries of the 4th. But it’s likely to remain a safe seat for Republicans with the GOP supermajorities in Jefferson City drawing the congressional maps. Though Columbia is shifting more Democratic, GOP operatives predicted the district may pick up ground in the conservative southwest region as the neighboring 7th Congressional district grows.
“This is a safe Republican seat, and we look forward to keeping it that way,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman said Mike Berg, who has deep ties to Missouri Republicans.
Open House seats are rare in Missouri, where members tend to dig in for decades unless ousted. Missouri has not had an open seat House race since 2013 when Republican Jason Smith was elected in a special election.
But Smith and other members of the House delegation may open other seats by following Hartzler into the Senate race, a domino effect of Missouri Republican Roy Blunt’s surprise retirement announcement.
In a state with strict term limits for state-level lawmakers, the chance to run for Congress presents an alluring opportunity.
In addition to Walsh, the race to replace Hartzler could draw Missouri Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden, a Columbia Republican who has served in the legislature since 2013, and state Sen. Rick Brattin, a former Cass County auditor.
Brattin attended Hartzler’s Senate campaign launch event and said he is considering a run. Rowden did not respond to a request for comment, but his name is being floated by fellow Republicans.
Missouri’s filing deadline is not until March of 2022.
The race to the right already could be seen in potential candidates’ legislative votes this session, said former Missouri GOP executive director Jean Evans, on issues like Medicaid expansion and raising the state’s gas tax, which the hardest-right Republicans staunchly opposed despite over two decades without a hike.
“I think some votes in the (Missouri) House in particular, and even in the state Senate this past session were people thinking, ‘Well, how is this going to look when I run in a Congressional primary?’” Evans said.
That could put Rowden in the position of defending his vote against his party and in favor of funding the expansion. But Evans said with his reputation for “authenticity,” and ability to fundraise, “I would never bet against him.”
Hartzler declined to comment Thursday on whether she had a preferred candidate to replace her in the House.
Another name circulating among Republicans is Daniel Hartman, Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley’s state director.
Hartman, an Iraq War veteran, managed Hawley’s 2016 campaign for Missouri attorney general and served as his chief of staff in Jefferson City.
Former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks said he is seriously considering a run and has spoken to Hartzler about his interest.
“I’ve had a couple of conversations with her. We want to respect her time frame and whatever her career looks like. If that seat opens up, we’ll seriously look at it,” Burks said earlier this week ahead of Hartzler’s announcement.
Burks is currently director of the Division of Labor Standards for Missouri Gov. Mike Parson’s administration. He lost his 2018 re-election contest for county clerk to Democrat Brianna Lennon.
The potential Democratic field is less clear at this point. Lindsey Simmons, Hartzler’s 2020 opponent, isn’t interested in another run for the seat, a spokeswoman confirmed.
A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide said the organization would monitor the race, but indicated no plans to actively recruit candidates or to spend resources on the district.
Kuang reported from Jefferson City.
The Star’s Jonathan Shorman contributed to this report.
This story was originally published June 10, 2021 at 12:48 PM.
