Are KS, MO in play for Biden? NY Times cites GOP surveys saying he’s ‘drawn closer’
After producing landslide Kansas and Missouri victories in 2016, President Donald Trump’s support could be waning in both states, according to internal polling information cited by the New York Times.
Reporters Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, in a Friday story discussing Trump’s recent struggles in the Sun Belt, made reference to the Midwest as well.
“New polls show Mr. Trump’s support is collapsing nationally, as he alienates women, seniors and suburbanites,” they wrote. “He is trailing not just in must-win battlegrounds but according to private G.O.P. surveys, he is repelling independents to the point where Mr. Biden has drawn closer in solidly red states, including Montana, Kansas and Missouri, people briefed on the data said.”
A close race in either state would mark a major shift from 2016; Trump took Missouri over Hillary Clinton, 56-38%, while also easily winning Kansas, 56-36%.
Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin also spoke briefly about Kansas in a Friday piece that discussed Trump potentially losing popularity with women voters.
“Meanwhile, Trump’s poll numbers are going from terrible to horrendous,” Rubin wrote. “Republican Senate races few imagined would be competitive (e.g., Kansas) and more House seats are sliding into Democrats’ laps. A good deal of his problem rests with female voters, who seem more repulsed by the Republican ticket with each appearance.”
If there has been a major shift in Kansas or Missouri, prediction models aren’t fully capturing it yet.
FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Trump an 89% chance of winning Missouri with an average popular vote advantage of 54-45%. In Kansas, FiveThirtyEight has Trump at 92% to win with an average popular vote margin of 54-44%.
One betting market — PredictIt — has only shown a moderate bump for Biden in the last week. His implied odds of winning in Missouri are now 15%, up from 11% on Oct. 1. In Kansas, Biden’s implied odds are 14% after sitting at 9% to start the month.
