COVID-19 tracking maps advise stay-at-home orders as MO, KS face ‘uncontrolled spread’
Maps created by public health and crisis experts that track each state’s COVID-19 response show that Kansas and Missouri are experiencing an uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus.
One of the maps, “Tracking our COVID-19 Response” published by covidexitstrategy.org, has both Kansas and Missouri painted in “bruised red,” which indicates uncontrolled spread of the virus.
The two states are among 26 that are colored the dark red on the map, which indicates where the number of cases during a 14-day period are increasing greater than 25%.
The map is based on the White House’s criteria that each region or state should satisfy before proceeding to a phased re-opening.
Each state is scored based in its 14-day trend of coronavirus positive cases based on a 7-day rolling average, ICU capacity, hospital bed capacity and percent of positive testing, among others.
Kansas, for example, is seeing its 14-day trend of COVID-19 positive cases increasing by roughly 10%. It has test positivity rate of 16.6%, which is flat. Missouri is seeing its 14-day trend of COVID-19 positive rate increasing by about 15%. Its positivity rate is 7.4% and increasing.
In both states, about a third of the population knows someone who is sick with the coronavirus, according to data included with the map. About 80% of Missouri and Kansas residents say they wear masks most of or all of the time while in public, according to the data. The number of cases were doubling about every 60 days in both states.
It was unclear if and how a database error involving Missouri’s public COVID-19 dashboard affected the state’s rankings on the two maps.
Stay-at-home orders needed
A second similar map shows that Missouri is one of 14 states at the “tipping point” where stay-at-home orders are necessary. Those states, which are at the “COVID Risk Level” red, have more than 25 cases per 100,000 people.
Missouri has 27.9 cases per 100,000 people.
The map calculates risk levels by looking at daily cases per 100,000, based on a 7-day rolling average. The map was launched by a network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics.
Kansas is in the “COVID Risk Level” orange, which is considered to be at a point where stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs are advised. That level, which is considered “accelerated spread,” includes states with 10 to 24 cases per 100,000 people.
At 23.4 cases per 100,000 people, Kansas is not far from being at the “tipping point.”
Experts from the Rockefeller Foundation, CovidActNow, Covid-Local and Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy helped with the map.
As of Monday, health officials reported that Kansas had 67,862 positive cases of COVID-19 and 771 deaths. Missouri had 144,230 positive cases and 2,422 deaths.
This story was originally published October 13, 2020 at 12:59 PM.
